Predicting and identifying draft strategies for the Colorado Avalanche.
Predicting how the NHL Draft will unfold is usually very difficult but this year might be even more challenging as it is a down year for some typical sources of talent. The USNTDP and Sweden are not expected to turn out many first round selections in 2024 and the OHL isn’t quite as deep as usual, which means some crutches for safe picks may not be available. A lot more Russians populate this draft board and even a selection or two from Norway may sneak into the first round. Truly, nothing should be a surprise in this draft class.
The Colorado Avalanche will make their appearance on the draft stage at The Sphere in Las Vegas on June 28th a little earlier than usual as they currently hold the 24th overall selection. After walking away from the 2023 draft with twin first rounders in center Calum Ritchie and defenseman Mikhail Gulyayev the Avalanche hope to follow-up those seemingly good high-end picks with another in 2024 to continue rebuilding their prospect pool.
Candidates at 24th Overall (First Round)
Those wanting a more physical big strong right handed defenseman added to the system, this may be your year. There are several contenders in this cohort expected to go in the first round of this very defense-heavy draft. Adam Jiricek was in top 10 consideration before he suffered an ACL injury at the World Junior Championship but is lauded for his size at six-foot-three and his mobility. Stain Solberg is another interesting option who shoots left and is a physical six-foot-two defensive defenseman who scored only 15 points playing in Norway but also showed incredible growth over the year to put himself in first round consideration. A plan is more important than ever for these defensemen who might be more physical than provide offense at the next level as those roles generally go to veterans and without eye-popping production in the AHL it might be tough to get them promoted.
With the encouraging early returns on the Calum Ritchie pick last year, there’s a similar type player available in this draft class. Michael Hage had a shoulder surgery and missed most of the 2022-23 season, which dropped his draft stock some. However, he was able to play this season and put up 75 points in 53 games for the USHL’s Chicago Steel. The six-foot-one right shot two-way center reminds of Ritchie as well but Hage will go the college route and is expected to play at Michigan next season, which would give the Avalanche a longer timeline to sign him.
After selecting Mikhail Gulyayev out of Russia in the 2023 first round perhaps that whetted the appetite for more Russian selections high in the draft. Igor Chernyshov has the makings of a skilled power forward and projects to be an impact player in the NHL. If the desire is to gamble on talent then there should be no fear in letting the six-foot-two left wing continue to play in the Dynamo Moscow system and come overseas when he’s ready for an opportunity. Chernyshov is a late birthday 2005 born player so he’s already 18-years-old and split half the season between the MHL junior league with 28 points in 23 games and also suited up for 34 games in the KHL this season.
Though the Avalanche don’t tend to move around the draft board often there’s always the possibility they don’t stay at 24th overall. Trading the pick outright for some immediate NHL help isn’t out of the question but both assets and cap space are thin right now and currently with no first, second or third round pick in the 2025 draft the organization needs to add another high-end prospect while they can with this pick.
A trade down might be plausible if there isn’t a player the Avalanche love when they get on the clock and they are presented with an offer, hopefully to pick up a missing second or third round pick in the deal. Ideally Colorado still ends up with one player on day one of this draft, though, because first round pedigree does matter in asset and internal value.
The dream scenario would be to select sniper Cole Eiserman either because he falls to their pick or somehow Colorado finds the assets to move up and grab him. Eiserman has been described as possessing the best shot in the draft and was once thought of as a candidate for second overall. The left winger broke Cole Caufield’s career record for goals at the NTDP with 127 in 119 games and his game reminds of Caufield’s which is why the two-way portion is in question and has allowed Eiserman to slip on draft boards. However, this is the type of game changing talent the Avalanche need in their system and they’d be very lucky to walk out of the draft with Eiserman.
Candidates at 121st Overall (Fourth Round)
Nearly 100 picks later the Avalanche will have to wait to be on the clock again. The bills from loading up for the Stanley Cup are still coming due with the missing 2024 second and third round selections going to pay for the Artturi Lehkonen and Darcy Kuemper deals. But when their name comes up near the end of the fourth round, the Avalanche have an unusual — for them — bounty of selections with six late-round choices to conclude the draft.
Hopefully the target in the fourth round is someone who just falls out of the top 100 to give the Avalanche value despite missing those crucial second and third round picks. The Russian factor may cause several talented players to fall out of the early rounds but could be a great pick up by Colorado, or this player could be on the radar if the organization acquires a second or third round pick. Nikita Artamonov could be someone to watch for as a five-foot-eleven left shot wing who was Nikolai Kovalenko’s teammate with Torpedo Nizhny Novgorod where he scored 23 points in 54 games. There’s always a chance an energy wing with skill could find a fit on a NHL third line.
In a different direction, considering the departure of prospect goaltender Ivan Zhigalov going unsigned means that Colorado’s pipeline in net is completely barren and is their greatest area of organizational need. It would be a surprise to not see a goaltender taken sometime on day two of the draft especially with six picks at their disposal.
We know that the Avalanche interviewed goaltender Mikhail Yegorov due to the great anecdote he provided about playing a board game in his combine interview with GM Chris MacFarland. He fits the organization’s mold for a large netminder at six-foot-five going to college route having played in the USHL for the Omaha Lancers. Yegorov is considered raw and needs to improve on mobility as well as the .892 save percentage he posted but the Avalanche love a big goalie project.
A more polished product could be going the direction of another Russian goalie in Ilya Nabokov. At 21-years of age Nabokov has been through the draft several times already but should be on the radar after his first full season in the KHL as a starter. Not only did his team Metallurg Magnitogorsk win the Gagarin Cup, Nabokov was named playoff MVP with a 16-6 record, 1.82 Goals Against Average and a .942 save percentage. He was the youngest player in KHL history awarded the MVP, beating Ilya Sorokin’s mark at 23-years of age. Sounds like a worthy investment with a fourth round pick.
Candidates at 132nd and 137th Overall (Fifth Round)
Not only do the Avalanche have two selections in the fifth round for the first time since 2018, both of these picks are not their original selections as they were acquired for Ben Meyers and Tomas Tatar from Anaheim and Seattle, respectively. (Colorado’s own pick was another Stanley Cup spend for the recently retired Andrew Cogliano). However, with both of those teams picking at the top of the draft that means Colorado gets a couple selections that are much closer to fourth round value at their disposal.
Who doesn’t love an overage pick more than the Avalanche? Especially one who can keep developing overseas, Frans Haara could be of interest. With an extra selection in the fifth round this six-foot-one right handed defenseman might be on the list. He was passed over two previous drafts but a jump in production to point-per-game on the Skellefteå J20 team and a debut on the SHL squad could get Haara drafted.
Ondrej Becher was also not selected in the last two drafts but a monster season of 96 points in 54 games with Prince George has put him on the radar enough to get invited to the combine this year. As always overage production must be taken with the context that it’s much easier for a 20-year old in junior to rack up points but there are enough tools that the six-foot-one center is getting noticed for. If Colorado drafts a North American overager, though, there should be an organizational plan to get the player signed and moved along to pro hockey.
Candidates at 185th Overall (Sixth Round)
The aforementioned Kovalenko was the first Colorado sixth round pick to play a game for the Avalanche since former 2008 selection Jonas Holøs, so maybe going back to the Russian well with this pick might be a smart strategy. Finding a player as talented as Kovalenko might be difficult but it’s worth a chance this late in the draft.
Defenseman Artyom Shchuchnikov could be an interesting option as he played all year for Traktor Chelyabinsk in the KHL. He is of average size at six-foot but is known to be a transition ace, which should help translate to the North American style of play. As someone already playing at the highest level in Russia his game will be more polished, too.
Candidates at 215th and 217th Overall (Seventh Round)
To conclude the 2024 draft class the Avalanche hold two picks late in the seventh round, their own selection and a pick received in the Kurtis MacDermid trade to New Jersey. In these ultra-late dart throws it’s difficult to peg any strategy, the hope is just in identifying some looked over talent. Sometimes a late bloomer in the NCAA or Europe is worth a pick to hold rights for an extended period of time.
Oddly enough, though, all the seventh rounders to have earned a NHL contract from the Avalanche in nearly the last 20 years have only been drafted from the CHL, the most recent example being goaltender Trent Miner who also just earned a contract extension. There seems to be some expected mid-round fallers from the CHL every year that make good grabs at the tail end of the draft. Evan Gardner from the Saskatoon Blades could be such a selection as a raw but talented goalie who put up a 1.91 GAA and .927 save percentage in the WHL this season.
Another CHL option is late birthday forward Luke Misa who had a breakout campaign with Mississauga in the OHL where he scored 81 points in 66 games. Misa is still only ranked at 76th for North American skaters indicating he’s expected to go in the late rounds. At this point in the draft when a team can grab a player who has skill and can skate with upside the pick is a smart bet.
And one final option, if all else fails why not just take the player who scored the most points in this draft eligible class? Though he is one year overage, right wing Anthony Romani scored 111 points including 58 goals in 68 games for North Bay in the OHL and will certainly hear his name called this year. If the Avalanche have the chance to do so Romani would be a worthy investment.
Hopefully the Avalanche can add seven promising prospects to the system when they walk away from the draft and we will see several of them up close and personal at development camp just a few days later. Happy drafting!