Breaking down Calum Ritchie’s options

NHL, junior or both?

One of the most anticipated storylines in next month’s Colorado Avalanche training camp will be concerning top prospect Calum Ritchie’s chances of landing a spot on the NHL squad. After inking his Entry Level Contract in July the possibility has become at least realistic with a nod of commitment from the organization.

NHL

The simplest option for Ritchie will be to make the Avalanche with a plan from the team on how to navigate his first year in the league. If he’s the fourth line center on paper that doesn’t automatically mean buried in the lineup with five minutes of time-on-ice a night. There’s ample opportunity to spot play on other lines, get some secondary special teams deployment and of course injuries always create opportunity. It is not unusual to play high-end 19-year olds in the NHL especially knowing it’s a work in progress towards an end goal of a top talent providing more than their value on an ELC.

Those expecting Ritchie to at least get a “nine-game trial”, though, may be in for a surprise as this is not something the Avalanche have done in the Jared Bednar era. The trial typically refers to giving prospect a NHL taste up to nine-games before the first year of their ELC kicks in and then a reassignment to their junior team where they can’t be recalled to the NHL until their junior season ends. Mikko Rantanen did play nine games his first year pro but spread out over the season in which he spent in the AHL and also Patrick Roy was still the coach at the time. Bednar believes a prospect should play where they belong and doesn’t want him sitting around. The Avalanche didn’t even give top prospect Bowen Byram any games before returning him to junior in 2019 as it’s not a strategy they currently employ.

Junior

Ritchie is contractually obligated by the OHL to return to his junior team in Oshawa if he’s not in the NHL, therefore there are no other alternatives. It’s not the end of the world if he plays one more year in juniors where he should be a dominant force and go on another long playoff run with the potential of winning a MVP title (no pressure, kid). An increase in competition would be nice but an elite player can also develop among their peers.

The greatest advantage to not sticking in Colorado this season is for Ritchie to experience the World Junior Championship where he would have likely a big role among the top-six forwards. He has been a Hockey Canada staple where he led the entire 2022 Hlinka Gretzky tournament in points (10) and assists (six) in five games as Canada won gold. He followed that up with a top-three player on the team honors at the 2023 World Junior Under-18 Championship scoring nine points in seven games, which brought Canada to a bronze medal all while battling a shoulder injury. It would be a shame for Ritchie to not experience the World Junior stage just once, but being a full-time NHL player is a nice consolation prize.

Hybrid

There is also a middle ground if the Avalanche choose to get creative enough. This would include Ritchie getting at least that nine-game trial and perhaps even more as they wait for the return of Gabe Landeskog and/or Val Nichushkin to the lineup. What some front offices have figured out is that it’s not preserving the ELC which is most important but rather preventing the player from accruing a season towards unrestricted free agency. That kicks in at the 40 games on the NHL roster mark, which includes healthy scratches or injuries. This means that Ritchie could play well into the end of the calendar year and then depart for World Juniors and finish the season in the OHL without gaining a year credit. Some teams even prefer this strategy by burning the ELC to get the player to a cheaper extension sooner without sacrificing a RFA year of control. Ritchie would also gain valuable NHL experience as he works towards a full-time role in Colorado for 2025.

All three options have their advantages so there’s no wrong choice but it is critical to make that decision in concert with the best strategy to set up this top talent to make a NHL impact sooner than later.