The 2025 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs have finally arrived. Here at Last Word on Hockey, we are dedicated to providing continuous coverage throughout every series. This is our first-round preview of the Western Conference series featuring the Dallas Stars and the Colorado Avalanche. These two franchises are quite familiar with each other, having competed in the same division for years and met in a total of six previous playoff series overall.
Western Conference First Round Stars vs Avalanche Playoff Series Preview
Dallas holds a 4-2 advantage in those series, but both losses were in the first round and came in just five games. However, most of these meetings have gone deep into the applicable round, with three lasting the full seven games. The Stars reached the Stanley Cup Final in each of those years, winning the Stanley Cup in 1999. They also have a head coach in Pete DeBoer, who has an impeccable record in Game 7s.
Yet, this is likely the opponent Dallas least wanted to see in the first round, although it was almost always the most likely. This will be its third year in a row with a particularly challenging and possibly long series in the first round, having played Vegas and Minnesota the previous two years. The Stars have lost seven games in a row entering the playoffs and have had some struggles against physical teams, especially holding leads. Colorado is a team that can match Dallas’ skater depth very well, but the Stars have a clear goaltending advantage.
Nonetheless, this series has the potential to be another long one in a significant rivalry, especially after Dallas eliminated Colorado in overtime of Game 6 of the Western Conference Semifinals last year. So, let’s get into it!
How the Stars and the Avalanche Matched Up During the Regular Season
The Avalanche won the regular season series with the Stars two games to one, taking the last two meetings after a late-November loss. All the games have been high-scoring affairs, with the loser scoring three goals. The top-two lines for both teams wreaked the most havoc, with Dallas’ Jason Robertson and Colorado’s Artturi Lehkonen doing most of the scoring. Colorado’s leading goal-scorer, Nathan MacKinnon, was held scoreless against Dallas this season. At the same time, Mikko Rantanen, now a member of the Stars, has played in the series for both sides this season. Rantanen scored a goal and had an assist for Colorado in the first meeting and picked up an assist for the Stars in his return to Denver, Colorado on March 16th.
The only game in which Dallas was fully healthy, resulted in the Stars’ only victory over Colorado this season. Moreover, Dallas just got a key piece of the puzzle back in forward Tyler Seguin, who had a goal and an assist in the win. He had been out of the lineup due to injury since December. However, Dallas will be without Robertson (week-to-week, lower-body) and defenceman Miro Heiskanen (LTIR) for Game 1, and likely longer. It is possible Heiskanen returns during the series, but less likely for Robertson given how recent the injury was.
Keys to Victory for the Dallas Stars
What does Dallas need to do to win
One of the biggest keys in this series for the Dallas Stars will be their consistency. We’ve seen plenty of times when the Stars started hot and fizzled throughout the rest of the game, or vice versa. The Avalanche are not a team that you can allow that to happen when playing against. With two deep teams competing to advance, it’s important to keep a consistent level of high-quality play going throughout the series, and possibly rediscovering it and adjusting when it levels off. Defence and penalties will also be huge for Dallas.
During their current losing streak, the Stars have taken some poorly timed penalties and allowed some lapses that have been uncharacteristic of a Pete DeBoer team. Many have come against inferior opponents, and Colorado would surely take advantage. The last key is goaltending. Jake Oettinger has been a phenomenal playoff goalie for the Stars, allowing 2.46 goals-against with a .916 SV%. He hasn’t been that good in recent regular-season games, but he was undoubtedly one of the principal difference-makers in last year’s playoff series against the Avs.
Colorado’s Keys to Victory
Where the Avalanche must succeed
Goaltending is also a key for Colorado, but for different reasons. The Avalanche goalie tandem is inexperienced when it comes to playoff hockey. Mackenzie Blackwood is having a career year but has never been in the playoffs, while backup Scott Wedgewood has appeared in just three post-season games. They’ll have to navigate through some jitters and show they can play on the big stage against a potent offence. The addition of veteran forward Gabriel Landeskog could also help Colorado. The Avalanche already have a deep lineup with MacKinnon, Lehkonen, Brock Nelson, Jonathan Drouin, Valeri Nichushkin, Cale Makar, Devon Toews, and Martin Necas.
Adding Landeskog, who played in his first games in about three years with the AHL’s Colorado Eagles recently, gives Colorado more ammunition to compete with the Dallas lineup and adds another goal scorer with a high ceiling. How quickly he gets up to speed and what he has to give the team under these circumstances could be a game-changer. Lastly, they need MacKinnon to put the puck in the net. He’s obviously been good at it, but just setting things up like he has in the three regular-season meetings between these organizations won’t cut it. The face of the franchise has to continue to play like it as we move into the postseason following a stellar 116-point campaign.
Stars-Avalanche Betting Odds and Series Favorite, Prediction
Colorado (-170) is favoured to win this series despite finishing behind Dallas (+140) in the Central Division during the regular season. Honestly, it makes sense given what transpired during the head-to-head meetings throughout the season and Dallas’ stumble to the finish line as the season closed. However, the longer the series goes, the more reinforcements should re-enter the lineup for Dallas. Plus, if Oettinger returns to his usual playoff form, it gives the Stars a distinct advantage, not only in skill but in playoff experience. Expect a tightly contested series that could go either way, with the smallest hiccups and fractions of details determining the winner between the Stars and the Avalanche. Most seem to be picking the Avs, which may bode well for Dallas.
Prediction: Stars take the series 4-3.
Main Photo Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images
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