Friday Feels: Helter Skelter

Is Josh Manson’s play a cause for concern after 20 games?

Stability. Physicality. Defensive responsibility. These are the traits Josh Manson is supposed to bring to the Colorado Avalanche’s second defensive pair. He’s been billed as an anchor on the backend, an intimidating presence at the net front and in the corners that can snuff out offense and free up his partner Sam Girard to make outlet passes and create offense from the blue line.

When he got to Colorado this was all true, and Manson’s surprising offensive flair with the freedom the Avalanche system allowed him was a little bonus whipped cream atop his slice of ol’ reliable pumpkin pie. He was a key cog in the Avalanche winning the 2022 Stanley Cup and looked like a stalwart top-four defenseman for the long haul.

But a couple of injuries have plagued him in the last few seasons and so far this season Manson has become a different kind of anchor, dragging down the metrics of his primary partner Girard the overall defensive structure of the team most nights. Every Avs defenseman who’s skated more than 12 minutes with Manson has a higher xGF% without him than with him (Kylington, Malinski, and Makar are under 12).

Let’s just look at the Josh and G pair – Girard has been good this year in general, putting up 58% xGF% when not sharing the ice with Manson. With him, on the other hand, he’s way down at 45%. The eye test will confirm what the numbers say too – this pair just doesn’t look synced up, and you can see Manson playing with uncharacteristic uncertainty on the Washington Capitals’ only goal last night:

This goal isn’t all on Manson – Drouin’s backcheck isn’t enough here, but it sure looks like he’s expecting Manson to stay on Dubois before realizing he needs to make a play. Manson is gliding back, not committing to the net front coverage or to making a play on the puck in the corner and he gets stuck in no man’s land. This isn’t the best example of Manson’s overall issues, but it is indicative of the larger pattern: he’s consistently making decisions his teammates do not seem to be expecting him to.

FRIDAY FEELS

A lot of good things this week! I’ll just list some Faves and Graves.

FAVE: Alexandar Georgiev Bouncing Back Healthy

Georgiev gave us all a scare with his brief stint on IR due to an upper-body injury, but he only ended up missing two games. His return in Washington was triumphant, both because he got a win and because he posted his best save percentage of the season at .966 on 29 shots. He’s hard to trust given how low the lows have been, but his highs are wonderful.

This save on Dubois was great for two reasons – the push-across and leg extension are excellent work. but perhaps more importantly he made the patient, smart play instead of going for one of his panic poke checks like we saw during his season-opening stretch of disastrous netminding.

GRAVE: Justus Annunen’s Third Periods

The kid just can’t seem to close out games without a little drama. Philadelphia was dead and buried down 3-0 after two periods on Monday, but Annunen should not have given up two weak goals, which made things interesting for no reason. He’s had these lapses a number of times throughout the season that the team has been able to cover up, but on the heels of a game where he gave up three goals on six shots, this was certainly disappointing.

FAVE: Sam Malinski

I jumped off my couch when he made this play:

And on top of that, his metrics continue to be excellent. He’s a perfect third-pair righty, and on a ton of teams, he’d be getting middle-pair minutes. He just doesn’t make sense as a partner for Sam Girard or I think he’d be getting more consideration there for this team too.

GRAVE: Ivan Ivan as Fourth Line Center

If you’ve been reading or listening to me, you know I love the kid… but he’s not excelling in this new role. As a winger up the lineup, he was making smart plays defensively and doing enough to keep offensive possession going (though certainly not generating many scoring chances). Now his minutes are down and his metrics have dipped six feet under along with them – it’s hard for young players to play consistently dialed-in hockey in limited minutes, and Ivan’s declining play is a great example of that.

FAVE: Parker Kelly

The main reason Ivan’s minutes are down so much is Kelly’s excellent play— the two were essentially in a battle for third-line minutes and Kelly won it handly. He had a leg up as a veteran player to be sure, but he took that leg and blocked a ton of shots with it. His defensive work has been stout and when he’s on the ice the Avs have outchanced opponents 99-75. For a defensive forward that is pretty good. He only has four points this season, but three of them came in the last two weeks.

Oh, and don’t forget he’s never been an NHL center before this season. Pretty impressive.

GRAVE: Oliver Kylington

Last week I predicted two wins and I got ‘em! I’m the king of the world!

This week I’ll go:

@ Florida: L
@ Tampa: W
vs Vegas: W
@ Dallas: W

Season Total: 11-9