Friday Feels: Why is 5v5 Scoring So Hard?

The Avs have just 22 even strength goals this season, tied for sixth fewest in the league.

Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar are amazing. The duo just had their season opening point streaks snapped by Connor Hellebuyck and the Winnipeg Jets, but MacKinnon still leads the league with 25 points and Makar is right behind him in third with 23. Scoring should not be a problem for this team.

But it sure is. Those point totals are a bit of a mirage – 19 of Nate’s and 15 of Cale’s came on the powerplay. At even strength, Makar is producing decent numbers with two goals and six assists, but MacKinnon hasn’t scored and has only tallied six assists of his own – under half a point per game. Compared to last year’s 79 5v5 points in 82 games that’s atrocious production.

Why? The magic is obviously still there – powerplay points aren’t actually easy to come by no matter how the unit has made it look this year – and watching MacKinnon game to game he’s visibly the best forward on the ice nearly every night. Something beyond luck must explain how last year’s Hart Trophy winner could go from shooting 14% at evens last season to literally zero so far in 2024.

And guess what? It’s actually obvious – the injuries throughout the Colorado Avalanche lineup have changed everything. This isn’t a MacKinnon problem, it’s a team problem – at even strength without MacKinnon on the ice Colorado has 13 goals. In 14 games! There isn’t anyone left in the lineup to finish plays, made obvious this week when former 7th Round Pick Nikita Prishchepov entered the lineup after just six career AHL games and immediately looked like the most dangerous forward in the bottom six.

TJ Tynan was the extra attacker with the goalie pulled last night. TJ TYNAN! (Editor Note: And his one career NHL point which was scored in 2019.) The team is playing well and the young forwards in the lineup have learned to play strong system hockey very quickly, but they simply do not have scoring touch. Ok. That’s the obvious part.

There’s more. MacKinnon is playing roughly his normal amount of minutes, but his usage at even strength has changed drastically with less reliable options in the lineup. In years past, Coach Bednar had a Ross Colton, JT Compher, or Nazem Kadri to handle difficult matchups against the other team’s top lines. This year, that responsibility has fallen squarely on the top line’s shoulders.

MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, and whoever is on their other wing (thank your gods Artturi Lehkonen is back) have been forced to take the toughest matchups all night and it’s hurting their offensive production. The reality for this team is they need powerplay chances not just to get the man advantage, but to give the top line a break from defending.

FEELS GOOD / FEELS BAD

The haters won, so I’m rebranding this section – this week it’s Feels. Next week it’s whatever I feels like.

FEELS GOOD – Artturi Lehkonen’s return

How sweet it is to have 62 back in the lineup. He scored in his first game back against Seattle, and was back to his normal self right away – an impressive feat after such an extended absence.

FEELS BAD – Cale Makar’s Groin Scare

To get Lehky back and then immediately lose Cale would have been a gut punch. He seemed to tweak a groin in the second period and after a stint in the locker room and a test skate, ended up spending the third period on the bench but not playing. He looked his normal self in the Jets game, but it’s not good to have him dinged up this early in the season.

FEELS GOOD – Nikita Prishchepov

He should have had a hattrick in his debut against the Predators, but more importantly he’s forechecking and defending extremely well. It’s a small sample size to be sure, but Prishchepov literally leads the league in expected goals for percentage three games into his career. If he sticks on the roster, he’s going to get some points very soon.

FEELS BAD – TJ Tynan, extra attacker

I mean. He almost scored his first NHL goal at 32 years old, but… come on. He’s an unserious option at 6-on-5.

Editor Note: The AHL actually stands for Almost Hockey League

FEELS GOOD – Alexandar Georgiev against Winnipeg

He has the Jets number, doesn’t he!? What a great call by Bednar to try to spark him against a familiar foe he dominated in last year’s playoffs. If not for regular season Connor Hellebuyck, Georgiev would have had his first win after giving up just one goal for the first time this season.

Last week I predicted a win against Nashville, a win against the Kraken, and a loss in Winnipeg. 2 for 3 is not bad!

This week I’ll go:

vs Carolina – Loss
vs Nashville – Win
vs Los Angeles – Win
vs Washington – Win

Season total: 7-7