Colorado dominated Game One but gave up seven goals – that can’t happen again in Game Two.
It’s simple – Can Alexandar Georgiev bounce back and play a decent game? If not, Game Two is going to look a lot like Game One.
A lot of fans and media personalities questioned whether the Avalanche could ever put Georgiev back in net after giving up seven goals on just 23 shots, a historically bad playoff performance. But Justus Annunen is still sick, and while Ivan Prosvetov was called up he’s just coming back from injury and he’s still Ivan Prosvetov.
Georgiev is the only real starting option, barring a miraculous Annunen recovery. On the other side, Connor Hellebuyck is going to bounce back from giving up 6 goals on 46 shots. Colorado will not score that many tonight, I guarantee it – they’ll have to win with 3 or 4 and stout enough defense to make Georgiev’s night easy.
Despite the Game One loss, the Avalanche actually played an incredible game overall. They out-chanced Winnipeg 40-19, limited the Jets to just nine high-danger chances while creating 17 of their own, and generated 4.21 expected goals while giving up just 1.96. Those numbers rock and Colorado truly rocked in the neutral and o-zone. You can see here they controlled the pace of play nearly the entire game.
They do need to clean up the turnovers in the defensive zone, however. Sam Girard may be able to suit up and take Caleb Jones’ place in the lineup, and his steady presence back there would be a huge boost to the team. Josh Manson and Sean Walker picked up extra minutes to make up for G’s absence, and Walker looked great but Manson made a bunch of iffy plays that ended up in the back of the net. A little less Josh and a little more Sammy should make a big difference.
Offensively, there’s not much the Avs can do better – they got goals from all over the lineup, dominated zone possession time, and looked dangerous nearly the entire game. The powerplay was a perfect 2-for-2, and that absolutely has to continue for the Avs to keep beating Hellebuyck consistently. The presumptive Vezina winner is going to play better in Game Two, so they will have to find a way to draw more penalties and keep getting pucks past him.
Projected Lines
Zach Parise (9) – Nathan MacKinnon (29) – Mikko Rantanen (96)
Artturi Lehkonen (62) – Casey Mittelstadt (37) – Valeri Nichushkin (13)
Miles Wood (28) – Ross Colton (20) – Joel Kiviranta (94)
Andrew Cogliano (11) – Yakov Trenin (73) – Brandon Duhaime (12)
Devon Toews (7) – Cale Makar (8)
Sam Girard (49) – Josh Manson (42)
Jack Johnson (3) – Sean Walker (26)
Note: If Sam Girard is unable to to go, expect Caleb Jones to slot into his lineup spot, and Sean Walker to move up to the second defensive pairing.
Winnipeg Jets
They’re on cloud nine getting a win after that stinker of a performance they put up in Game One. The Jets were on their heels from the jump and were lucky to consistently score goals against the trend of play.
That is unlikely to repeat itself. Winnipeg won’t be making any lineup changes, but they are a better defensive team than they showed in the first match and are likely to find a way to tighten up – particularly around zone entries, which they seemed to cede to the Avs consistently despite being excellent at blue line denials in the regular season.
Projected Lines
Kyle Connor (81) – Mark Schiefele (55) – Gabriel Vilardi (13)
Nikolaj Ehlers (26) – Sean Monohan (23) – Tyler Toffoli (73)
Nino Niederreiter (62) – Adam Lowry (17) – Mason Appleton (22)
David Gustafsson (19) – Vladislav Namestnikov (7) – Alex Iafallo (9)
Josh Morrissey (44) – Dylan Demelo (2)
Brenden Dillon (5) – Neal Pionk (4)
Logan Stanley (64) – Dylan Samberg (54)
Goaltenders
Same as last time, unsurprisingly: Connor Hellebuyck and the aforementioned Georgiev.