MHH Roundtable: The Long Goodbye

The staff shares thoughts on Colorado’s second round playoff exit.

Before a summer of uncertainty can unfold, we must put the 2023-24 Colorado Avalanche season to rest. After getting eliminated in six games in a tough second-round meeting with the Dallas Stars here are our thoughts as we reflect on what transpired.

After getting knocked out in the second round, was this season a disappointment?

Evan: Yes, I believe the season is a disappointment overall. Any time you lose out on having a chance to win the Stanley Cup, it stinks. But when you’re a Cup contender and make several moves to reflect as such, it makes it that much worse. The “all-in” mantra fell short and ultimately jeopardized the future slightly more than before. Of course, outside scenarios played their part as well, but overall it is a bit disappointing to be knocked out in the second round and not make it at least to the Western Conference Final.

Ezra: Yeah. Coming into the playoffs, I said it wasn’t about reaching a certain round for me; it was about playing at their peak, and I stand by that. But can we say that this second-round loss to Dallas was peak Avalanche? I don’t think so. Obviously, Val Nichushkin’s absence is a factor in that—and disappointing in its own right—but the continued inability of the Avalanche to find depth guys who can step up is a big issue.

Jackie: I have believed all along that a second-round finish is just about what this team deserved, and the trade deadline did not make a material difference in that. So it’s disappointing that the team couldn’t go further, but I don’t feel like this team disappointed based on my expectations and evaluation of the roster. Just for proof of that, here’s my submitted bracket before the playoffs began.

Adrian: Last season, the Avalanche were eliminated in the first round, but this year, it feels more like a disappointment. I think it’s because of Colorado’s potential heading into round two. They had Val Nichushkin leading the NHL in playoff scoring and seemed to be on another mission for a Cup. Those hopes felt all but lifeless after his untimely and surprise departure from the lineup. It shouldn’t be an excuse for this squad again, however. They had more than enough talent to force a Game 7 but made costly mistakes along the way against Dallas. The Stars were built up as a team that forces their opposition to beat themselves. Unfortunately, that reputation was realized against the Avalanche.

Casey: I think the result is a disappointment and a failure on many levels. It hurts to waste this roster that had so much potential after the deadline, it hurts not to get the job done for Zach Parise, It hurts not being able to see Jonathan Drouin for most of that playoff run, and most of all, the Nichushkin situation just put a black cloud over the rest of the postseason for me. I had very little faith that this team would be able to rebound from losing one of its most important players in such a shocking fashion. After the news broke, all I could really think about was what in the world the Avs do this offseason. The uncertainty of the future weighed much heavier on my mind than Matt Duchene ending the Avs season.

What is one thing the team could have done differently to change the outcome?

Evan: Play better at home. Aarif Deen of the Mile High Sports Magazine reported the Avs are 3-7 on home ice ever since winning Games One and Two of the Stanley Cup Final against the Tampa Bay Lightning. They lost all three home games in the second round to the Stars and ultimately proved home-ice advantage doesn’t mean much in the playoffs as the best home team in the league during the regular season. It was the only thing they could control in the second round, all things considered, but it at least could’ve helped their fight last a little longer.

Ezra: Find more creativity on the power play. If the power play scored once or twice more in games 2-5 against the Stars, the Avs would be in the Western Conference Finals. It’s easier said than done, for sure, but the Avs’ insistence on sticking to a brutally streaky structure all season instead of finding a more dynamic way to use their star players was incredibly frustrating to watch.

Jackie: Losing all three games to Dallas at home and a power play that didn’t score a single goal in the Game 2-4 losses certainly had an impact in the defeat. In addition, the overall defensive impact wasn’t good enough. Giving up 22 goals to Dallas in five games and giving up 2.38 goals per 60 at 5-on-5 wasn’t a sustainable path to victory. This whole season, the defense wasn’t as tight, with lax coverage and more turnovers than what’s expected of this group, as evidenced in the numbers below. Additionally, Sean Walker fell off a cliff in the Dallas series with no points and wasn’t on the ice for an Avalanche goal, however saw six Stars goals go in the net at 5v5 and sported a 45% expected goals ratio in the series. It wasn’t all on him, but there’s a reason why Jared Bednar backed off his minutes greatly as the series went along.

Adrian: I’m with Ezra on this one; if the Avalanche power play success is so heavily predicated on a net-front presence, they either have to adjust in terms of personnel or rethink the powerplay approach together. I, for one, don’t hate the idea of letting Makar be more of a scoring threat rather than the QB of the advantage. You just extended Toewser, and he’s capable of filling that role. Colorado’s true net-front guys are Landeskog and Nichushkin. You can’t willingly employ a powerplay unit where the personnel doesn’t fit the approach.

Casey: I’m with Evan on this one. When one of your regular season strong suits was your home ice dominance, you can’t go 0-3 on home ice in a series, you’re going to lose that series 99% of the time. For me it’s as simple as that. The Avs only lost 10 games at home all season, but have almost matched that mark in the playoffs in the last three series they’ve played in. You have to do a better job in your own building.

Did anyone’s playoff performance leave a lasting impression?

Evan: I was thoroughly impressed with Casey Mittelstadt’s play in his first-ever Stanley Cup Playoff appearance. While he made most of his impact in the first round against the Winnipeg Jets, it reflects what he can do. He ended the playoffs with three goals and six assists in 11 games. He still has some work to do, as he was outmatched in the second round against Wyatt Johnston and Tyler Seguin, but he can be a suitable second-line center with more experience and rhythm in the lineup for longer. It will be interesting to compare next year to see where he’s advanced in his game.

Ezra: I love Mittelstadt too, but since Evan covered him, I’ll say Sam Girard. He was hurt in the ‘22 Cup run, and a lot of his detractors point to that as proof he’s not a playoff performer or not a guy the Avs need to keep to get back to the Finals, but he was inarguably the Avs most consistent player on the backend this playoff season. Cale Makar was great offensively, Devon Toews had some wonderful moments, and Josh Manson looked dynamic at times and foolish at others, but underneath all that was the steady, heady presence of Sammy G breaking up plays and breaking out pucks.

Jackie: I’ll remember how Cale Makar turned it up a notch after a regular season that perhaps didn’t meet his standards, especially in Game 5 against Dallas with the game-winning goal. Alexandar Georgiev getting some redemption after the Winnipeg Game 1 debacle was nice, too. Though his statistics didn’t really sparkle with a 2.77 Goals Against Average and a .897 save percentage, it certainly felt like his performance gave the Avalanche a chance to win.

Adrian: Cale Makar and Nathan MacKinnon found another gear after a disastrous game four. and I liked that. Casey Mittelstadt made the most of his first playoff appearance and has earned his extension in my mind. My guy Sammy G was arguably Colorado’s most consistent defender all season, and Alexandar Georgiev turned into all that Colorado could ask for and more. I’m just sad that Jonathan Drouin didn’t get more playoff action.

Casey: I thought the play of Ross Colton left a lot to be desired. I understand that he was re-familiarizing himself with the Center position after playing a lot of wing in Tampa Bay, but for a player who got a Stanley Cup with the Lightning and competed in another deep run in 2022, he had a lot of off nights, especially in the Dallas series. The 3rd line went away after a great start to the series, and I was hoping to see Colton fill the clutch shoes that J.T. Compher left behind. I’m still very optimistic of Colton’s future in Colorado and this is by no means a long-lasting negative, but I hope Bednar utilizes him a bit differently offensively next season. Specifically, he has a sick one-timer that needs to be utilized as part of an effective PP2 unit.

As we put a bow on the 2023-24 season, what will be your favorite memory from it?

Jackie: Hopefully one moment, which hasn’t happened yet, and that’s Nathan MacKinnon winning the Hart Trophy. Although he didn’t win hockey’s greatest trophy this season, an MVP title is still an important milestone in the superstar forward’s career and legacy to recognize the incredible season he had. Anticipating that moment on the horizon will make the memories less bittersweet.

Evan: It still leaves a sour taste in people’s mouths what Nathan MacKinnon accomplished this year, but he didn’t advance past the second round. While I hope the best moment will be if/when he wins the Hart Trophy like Jackie, his two Mack-Tricks against the Washington Capitals and Ottawa Senators, alongside his hat-trick against the Minnesota Wild, have to be up there for some of the best individual game performances in Avalanche history.

Ezra: That Minnesota hat trick was incredible, and whoever wins, Nate’s Hart chase was the most fun part of the year by a mile, and Jonathan Drouin might be low-key the best sports redemption story across all the sporting universe this year, but my personal favorite? I have to toot my own horn here for pitching a Byram for Mittelstadt trade on our podcast weeks before the deadline and laying out the case for it, which I assume Chris MacFarland copied word for word when he brought the idea up to Joe Sakic. I am taking full credit for the trade and couldn’t be more excited for Casey’s Colorado career to blossom.

Jackie: Manifesting the Kurtis MacDermid and Ben Meyers trades was my personal highlight.

Adrian: Highlight of the season for me was Cale Makar’s coast-to-coast playoff tally against the Winnipeg Jets. It was a play that I’ll never forget, having been in the arena to witness alongside my friend and colleague Evan Liu. Later that night, we would both throw our hats, with Nichushkin securing the hat trick. That was as good as it got this season.

Casey: Despite another chaotic season for the Colorado Avalanche, the season Nathan MacKinnon just had is something I don’t think Avs fans will forget for as long as they live. We just witnessed MacKinnon at the height of his powers. While 140 points may be hard to replicate again, this season was a firm affirmation that the Colorado Avalanche currently have one of the two best players in the NHL at the height of his powers. It sucks not to end this season with a championship, but if MacKinnon finally gets his long-awaited Hart Trophy this season for the greatest season in Avalanche franchise history, it’ll be a pretty sweet bow on this season.