Opinion: Analytics used to disqualify Makar are easily explained

Makar’s the world’s best defender, despite what the critiques say.

The emergence of analytics has been a pleasant step into the modern realm for hockey and the NHL, but sometimes, numbers can be found or explicitly conjured to demote a player. Agh numbers. Mathematics is about understanding, but you don’t need math to know Makar is the world’s best defender, and although numbers paint a picture, you need to know the artist to see the beauty and brush strokes truly. That’s what Makar is, a hockey artist, the likes of which we’ve only seen a few other times in history.

Fresh to death

This whole debate started when JFresh brought about some super interesting thoughts and conversations due to this initial tweet in which he displays numbers that depict a relatively odd occurrence. Over the 1 3⁄4 season, Colorado is better when both Cale Makar and Nathan MacKinnon are off the ice than when just MacKinnon is off. That’s a mouthful, but to put it plainly, Colorado’s bottom nine players play better without Cale (when MacKinnon is also off) than they do with him.

This trend has stuck around longer than I thought it would, but let’s really think about this Avalanche team and the last two seasons and see what could give us the context to explain these statistics.

Mercenary Mountain

My first contributing factor to this is the grotesque revolving door that has been the Colorado Avalanche bottom nine group. To put things in perspective, here’s a list of all the different forwards who have seen action for the Avalanche over the past two seasons:

If you remove the prominent top liners like Rantanen, Necas, Nichushkin, and Drouin, a whopping 37 different forwards will still make up the bottom nine. It goes without explaining that consistency is key, even more valid for defenders.

Cale Makar is undoubtedly more familiar and keen on playing with MacKinnon, Nichushkin, and Necas, but that’s not how it works. Cale contributes to every situation, including (up until Erik Johnson’s arrival) penalty kill. He also matches up against every team’s best line and power play unit, but I’m not allowed to discuss matchups!

Elite with the elite

The other thing with this revolving door of the bottom 9 is the names that have made up said group. Often, at times, it’s been guys that are fringe NHLers or downright players that should be in the AHL. I shouldn’t have to explain why or how Makar would be more suited to playing with A, a more consistent group, and B, a group of actual NHL talent.

Colorado has had injury problems for two straight seasons, forcing the Avalanche to suit 47 players in just the 2024-25 season. We have a running joke on the Mile High Hockey Lab that they should do all they can to dress 50 different players before the season ends.

Here’s a racing analogy. Makar is F1. Colorado’s bottom nine forwards have been more truck series for two straight seasons. The two don’t go well together, but that doesn’t make the F1 car any slower or less capable.

Makar4Norris

To disqualify Makar because he’s better with MacKinnon (just like absolutely anyone else on the planet) amid this abhorrent wave of injuries and turnover is just irresponsible, in my opinion. Makar could put up 30 goals in a season and has played through his injuries all season. To give this award to Quinn Hughes would be to award him as the second-best defender in the world “because he plays without MacKinnon.” Hughes also plays without some of Makar’s ability.

Thanks to JFresh for his hard work and analysis! I respectfully disagree with the initial tweet, but we all know the Colorado Avalanche are his second favorite team. Cheers!