Opinion: Malinski, Kovalenko & Ivan ease the prospect pain in Colorado

All three camp hopefuls appear to be affordable and serviceable NHLers.

It was no secret heading into this season that the Avalanche would be a little bit without to kick things off. Having roughly 20M dollars worth of players on the mend and not on the ice, it was all anyone could talk about, especially when the Avalanche dropped their first four games. What have they done since then? Win five in a row while revealing some unlikely and affordable talent that could prove Avalanche mainstays and core pieces down the line.

It’s safe to say that Sam Malinski, Nikolai Kovalenko, and Ivan Ivan have been better than anyone expected in the absence of Val Nichushkin, Gabe Landeskog, etc. Still, I think they have the potential to be mainstays and complement Colorado’s core for years to come. What are the crucial components supporting this claim? Age, performance, and free agent status.

High Ceiling & Low Cost

When contemplating their future with the Avalanche, we must consider how we view Ivan, Malinski, and Kovalenko and their true potential. Let’s start with Ivan Ivan. I see the young can-do’er in Ivan, and his playstyle and potential are that of a shut-down bottom-sixer and PK guy who can match up against the best offensive talent by way of hard work, effort, and positioning—a young Andrew Cogliano with a little less of a knack for the extracurriculars but more of a knack for scoring. I can’t remember Cogs scoring a powerplay goal.

It’s no slight to Ivan to compare him to Cogs, as I’m sure Avs fans know. Cogliano played 1,140 games in the NHL and is a Stanley Cup Champion. A young Cogs for 845K for this and another season? Sure, I’ll play and pay to find out.

Sam Malinski isn’t all that hard to pin down anymore, as he keeps playing for the Avalanche and being one of their best defensemen night in and night out. His TOI could be characterized as sheltered, but he’s likely earning Bednar’s trust. He’s gotten 21 shifts in back-to-back contests and is up a full minute this season from his career TOI/Game. I’ve been sporting this fancy stat online, and I think it’s telling of Malinski’s defensive performance.

We all know that defense is king to Jared Bednar. I want to see Sam’s average ice time go up to that more typical of a top 4 defender. Take just a couple of shifts from that Manson and Girard pair. A potential top 4 defender with offensive upside and excellent defensive metrics for 850K? Sure, I’ll play and pay to find out.

Nikolai Kovalenko is the most challenging player to pin down in terms of potential, but not for reasons that take away from his performance—quite the opposite. Kovalenko has shown exactly what every Avs pundit wanted to see from him heading into this season: a focus on the process and a commitment to defensive play to complement his physicality and explosive traits. Kovy’s potential is hard to predict because his ceiling is hard to assume. He scored plenty in the KHL, and obviously, it’s not a 1:1 exchange rate to the NHL, but if he becomes a 25-30 goal scorer, he will find himself in a top-six role. A bought-in, top-six winger with unrealized offensive potential for $896,250? You get it where this is going.

The Beauty of RFA’s

The kicker in all of this, at least for this potentially overzealous but excited Avalanche fan, is their free agent status after their current contract is up and the benefits of having first dibs at young homegrown NHL talent. Two outcomes would result in any of these three young men leaving Colorado. One, things take a turn; they don’t pan out, and people point to this article and laugh at me for years to come. Or two, they end up being so good that a team is willing to offer a sheet, and the Avalanche doesn’t match, instead taking their compensation. The odds of the latter are slim to none.

It’s far more likely they land somewhere in the middle of those extremes and remain members of the Avalanche. They have already shown enough potential to earn their next contract, and if the potential is all we see at the end of their current agreements, they will remain affordable. If they realize potential, become proven, and are time-tested, they will still be more affordable comparatively. It’s a win-win for the Avalanche.

The Long Road

Most of this article is me getting too excited about how well things have gone for some Avalanche prospects that Avalanche management was essentially forced to play. I get that. Although less than ideal, it’s a situation that has painted a picture of hope on the horizon for the next era of Avalanche hockey. The best part in all of this? After Avalanche and Rantanen come to terms with his last big deal, the actual core (Nate, Mikko, and Makar) will be set until at least 2030.

Am I getting ahead of myself? Are you also very excited about what we’ve seen from these three?