Round One Preview: Bowness’ Blue Line

Does Rick Bowness have the special sauce for beating Colorado? How does his blue line stack up?

The Western Conference isn’t settled yet, but the Avalanche and Jets are all set for their first-round matchup, which will start in Winnipeg at Canada Life Centre sometime next week. Mile High Hockey has your preview coverage on lock, and in this article, I’ll lay out how things stack up on the blue line. Colorado’s competitive advantage in 2022 came from the back end. Will that be true this postseason as well? Does Rick Bowness have the recipe for shutting down Colorado?

Winnipeg Jets Projected Defenders

Josh Morrissey — Dylan Demelo
Brenden Dillon — Neal Pionk
Dylan Samberg — Nate Schmidt
Colin Miller

Top Pair: Matchups and Moments

Josh Morrissey and Dylan Demelo will have their hands complete as the top pair, but they seem to have done well against Colorado this season. The biggest thing for the Jets is that most of their defenders have stayed relatively healthy all season. That bodes well for chemistry and communication. That’s true for this top pair, who has played over 70 games this season together. This group will have to do well to win the moments when Colorado’s elite talent is at its best. It won’t be about stopping Nathan MacKinnon but about containing him in a seven-game series.

Second Pair: Doubt and Danger

Neal Pionk has caught the ire of many Jets fans, and he will be tested plenty against Colorado’s second line of Lehkonen—Mittelstadt—Nichushkin. I look at this as the key matchup for Colorado. The Jets’ top pair and Colorado’s subsequent top line should battle it out, but the Avalanche might have an advantage with this second group. Brendan Dillon is a very strong defender, but I return to this being a seven-game series. It’s no secret that Colorado struggled against the Jets this season head-to-head, but Colorado is too good to be swept and has too much talent on the second line not to break through. If they steal one on the road early, they re-establish home ice.

Third Pair: Higher Ceiling

Samberg might be the Jets’ second-best defender at 25 despite being on the third pair. He’s young, but his ceiling is that of a top pair guy, and performing well in the playoffs can undoubtedly catapult him into the role of top 4 defender in the NHL. Nate Schmidt is a familiar name with plenty of Stanley Cup Playoff experience. The same is true for Colin Miller, who was also a former Golden Knight. If any part of Winnipeg’s d core gets adjusted from game to game, it will be at six and seven D, which is typical of a well-equipped d group.

Who has the advantage?

The Avalanche will ice what would likely be Team Canada’s top pair when the Olympics roll around. The top pair advantage goes to Colorado, I’d say. Working down the core, I still feel that Colorado has an advantage. Playoff experience is the catalyst for me. It remains to be seen how the pairings are sorted in the playoffs, but I think it’s fair to say that Sam Girard, Josh Manson, Sean Walker, and Jack Johnson are all set as the bottom four defenders. Sammy G is having arguably his best year as a pro, Manson’s style should flourish in the playoffs, Sean Walker seems to be a perfect fit for Colorado’s system, and Jack Johnson is Jack Johnson. Coverage, clean breakouts, and success on the kill will be crucial for this group. If they begin to self-sabotage, the advantage is null and void.