Denver Broncos
Projected Cap Space: $38.6 million
Draft Picks: 7
- 1st (No. 20)
- 2nd (No. 51)
- 3rd (No. 85)
- 4th (No. 121)
- 6th (No. 192, ARI)
- 6th (No. 198)
- 6th (No. 208, PHI)
Notable Free Agents:
- RB Javonte Williams
- DT D.J. Jones
- LB Justin Strnad
- LB Cody Barton
- QB Zach Wilson
- QB Jarrett Stidham
- WR Lil’Jordan Humphrey
- P Riley Dixon
Top Three Needs
1 – Running Back/Tight End
I’m grouping these two positions together because that’s what Broncos HC Sean Payton did when he was asked about what Denver needs this offseason to take the next step as a team. Payton highlighted players he used to have with the Saints like Reggie Bush, Jimmy Graham, Darren Sproles and Alvin Kamara — “jokers” who had top-notch receiving skills to attack the middle of the field and exploit mismatches against slower or smaller defenders.
The Broncos did not have a player like that on the roster last year. The closest might have been WR Marvin Mims who started getting snaps in the backfield in the second half of the season as Payton sought out mismatches but he’s not really the type of player the coach has in mind as a “joker.” The starting tight end was Adam Trautman and at running back the Broncos failed to find any consistent playmakers from a group that included Williams, Jaleel McLaughlin and Audric Estime.
Fortunately for Denver, it’s looking like an outstanding draft class at both running back and tight end with players who could fit the mold Payton is looking for to overhaul both positions.
2 – Linebacker
The other area Payton discussed was being strong up the middle of the defense, and he mentioned inside linebacker in particular. It’s not a surprise, as starting LB Alex Singleton is coming off a torn ACL and could be a potential cut candidate due to his salary. Both Barton and Strnad, who saw the lion’s share of the snaps at linebacker, are pending free agents. Neither should be expensive to bring back but this also presents the Broncos with an opportunity to upgrade.
3 – Safety
Staying in the middle of the defense, the Broncos saw a positive return on their significant free agent investment in S Brandon Jones last year. The spot next to him was manned by S P.J. Locke, who played more unevenly. I think in a dream world, Denver would be happy with Locke as the third safety and will seek opportunities to upgrade this offseason.
One Big Question
Will Denver get a sophomore jump or sophomore slump from Nix?
In the same year the Broncos moved on from former QB Russell Wilson and took on an NFL record $85 million in dead money, they broke an eight-year playoff drought and won 10 games. A lot of people deserve credit, including Payton for scheming up the offense, DC Vance Joseph for turning the defense into a top-ten unit and steps forward from guys like WR Courtland Sutton, DL Zach Allen, OLB Nik Bonitto and CB Patrick Surtain II.
However, it all comes back to the quarterback at the end of the day and the biggest success of last year for the Broncos was finding first-round QB Bo Nix at No. 12 overall, the sixth passer off the board in last year’s draft. The rookie started slow and truthfully looked overwhelmed in his first couple of games, tossing no touchdowns to four interceptions. Nix improved every single week, though. By the end of the year, he had tossed 29 touchdowns against 12 interceptions, completed 66.3 percent of his passes for 3,775 yards and added another 430 yards and four touchdowns on the ground. He even caught a touchdown for good measure.
It’s clear the Broncos and Payton have found themselves a starting quarterback. What’s not clear yet is what Nix’s ceiling might be. Denver didn’t ask Nix to push the ball down the field a ton. The Broncos ranked 29th in completed air yards per pass attempt and Nix was near the top of the league in touchdown passes thrown near or behind the line of scrimmage. Nix was also 28th in success rate out of 43 quarterbacks with enough pass attempts to qualify.
Just because Nix wasn’t asked to throw it deep as much as other quarterbacks doesn’t mean he’s not capable, though, as his highlight reel included multiple bombs like this 93-yard dot. Denver logically wanted Nix to be more of a game manager as a rookie, particularly with the success of the defense and the relative lack of imposing skill position players. There are signs Nix can be more, including throws like the one above, his rushing production and his skill at avoiding sacks. Nix’s pressure-to-sack percentage of 13.4 was eighth in the NFL, per PFF.
This offseason, the Broncos will look to build up the infrastructure around Nix as they ask him to do more than he did as a rookie. Meanwhile, Nix will have areas of his game that he needs to work on, such as calming his feet in the pocket and improving how he reads defenses. For most players, the offseason between their rookie year and their second season is when they take the biggest jump. But for quarterbacks, we’ve seen it go either way in recent seasons, with almost as many passers stalling out or regressing in Year 2 rather than taking another leap forward. Time will tell what happens with Nix.
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