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Broncos-Bills Preview: Buffalo on Playoff Upset Alert vs. Denver

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Bills Broncos

The Buffalo Bills will face their toughest Wild Card Round test of the Josh Allen Era on Sunday when they welcome the Denver Broncos to Highmark Stadium.

Buffalo posted a 13-4 record during the regular season, including an 8-0 mark at home, but it wasn’t rewarded with an easy first-round playoff matchup. Instead, its high-powered offense will be challenged by a Denver defense that led the NFL in sacks (63).

Meanwhile, the Broncos return to the postseason in a proverbial “nothing to lose” situation. They exceeded expectations thanks to a strong rookie season from quarterback Bo Nix, and only one of their seven losses was by more than a single score. That typically points to a team better than its record.

The Bills and Broncos are scheduled for a 1 p.m. ET kickoff Sunday on CBS and Paramount Plus.

Broncos-Bills Game Preview and Score Prediction (Wild Card Round)

X-Factors

Broncos: WR Marvin Mims Jr.

Denver needs three things to happen if its going to pull off the upset. Nix must extend a couple drives by using his legs on the third down, the Broncos defense must generate consistent pressure on Allen and the offense need to beat the Bills secondary over the top a few times.

Mims is the player who can make the last thing happen. The 2023 second-round pick was a non-factor for the first half of the season, but he’s become crucial to the unit’s success as of late. He recorded 28 catches for 434 yards and six touchdowns over the final seven games.

More importantly, the wide receiver creates game-changing plays the Broncos offense otherwise lacks. He’s recorded one reception of at least 30 yards in six of those seven contests. That includes a 93-yard touchdown catch against the Cleveland Browns in Week 13.

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The Bills rely on a bend-but-don’t-break defense. They’ll give up a lot of yards (17th in the NFL) and struggle to get off the field on third down (29th). They instead rely heavily on forcing turnovers (3rd) and limiting big plays on that side of the ball.

Mims can ruin that approach in the blink of an eye. Given the strength of the Broncos’ defense, even one monster play like the wideout had against Cleveland could swing this game in Denver’s favor. He’ll be the main point of focus for the Buffalo defensive backfield.

Bills: DT Ed Oliver

Oliver is a game-wrecker in the middle of the defensive line. He’s one of the league’s most impactful tackles when playing his best football. Unfortunately for Buffalo, inconsistency has plagued the 2019 first-round pick’s career, and 2024 was no different.

The 27-year-old Louisiana native put together some standout performances—he was an absolute force in the Bills’ win over the Detroit Lions in Week 15—but he also went invisible in a lot of games. The latter happened far too often for a player of his caliber.

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In turn, Oliver’s final stat line was mediocre: 29 total tackles, three sacks and three forced fumbles in 14 games. His lackluster 71.6 overall grade from Pro Football Focus matches the underwhelming numbers. He simply wasn’t good enough on a lot of occasions.

The Bills desperately need that to change in the playoffs. One of the best ways to slow down a red-hot rookie quarterback like Nix is getting pressure in his face right up the middle. It leaves less room to escape than an edge rush and forces quicker decisions that often lead to mistakes.

In the big picture, Oliver may be the most important player aside from Allen in determining whether the Bills can make a Super Bowl run to New Orleans. He’s that much of a difference-maker when he’s making a significant three-down impact in the middle of the line.

The defensive tackle can’t be silent on Sunday or there’s a strong chance Buffalo’s playoff run will end prematurely, though.

Key Matchup

Broncos Pass Rush vs. Bills QB Josh Allen

The Broncos’ pass-rushing effectiveness this season was off the charts. Perhaps the most important element was the group’s depth. It wasn’t one or two superstars making all the plays. The unit six players with at least five sacks, including two in double digits:

  • LB Nik Bonitto: 13.5
  • LB Jonathon Cooper: 10.5
  • DE Zach Allen: 8.5
  • DE John Franklin-Myers: 7
  • LB Dondrea Tillman: 5
  • LB Jonah Elliss: 5

In a lot of ways, that’s tougher to defend than a single edge stud. You can’t simply create double-team scenarios to neutralize the weapon. The Broncos create a lot of confusion of the opposing offensive line by sending players at the quarterback from all angles.

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Add in Pat Surtain II, arguably the league’s best corner who can lock down an opponent’s top receiver, and it’s easy to why the Denver defense was so successful. The result is a defense that ranked second in yards allowed per play (4.9) and third in points allowed per game (18.3).

Buffalo is the toughest challenge the unit has faced all season, though. The Bills have strengths that match up well with the Broncos.

First, Allen was sacked a league-low 14 times in 17 games. Some of that is due to a solid offensive line, but a much larger portion is the fact he’s a 6’5”, 237-pound wrecking ball who’s incredibly tough to take down, especially with the NFL rules protecting quarterbacks.

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Second, the Bills don’t possess a true No. 1 receiver. Khalil Shakir led the team with 76 catches and 821 receiving yards. Mack Hollins paced the group with five touchdown catches. They had 13 different players catch at least one TD. “Everybody eats” was the slogan.

So the Bills offense vs. the Broncos defense is probably the best battle of the Wild Card Round.

Final Score Prediction: 24-20 Bills

This game can go in either direction. The Bills are rightfully favored, but it’s not going to take a miraculous series of events to flip the contest in the Broncos’ favor. One or two momentum-turning plays by Denver is all it may take for the upset.

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Yet, it’s hard to pick against a Buffalo team that hasn’t lost at home all season. It’s a rookie quarterback (Nix) in one of the league’s most hostile road environments against an MVP front-runner (Allen) who has a 17-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio at Highmark Stadium this season.

Allen’s ability to make highlight-reel plays while escaping pressure should prevent the Broncos’ pass-rushers from taking over the game. Meanwhile, Denver doesn’t have quite enough game-breakers on offense to take full advantage of Buffalo’s defensive weaknesses.

Nevertheless, expect a close game deep into the fourth quarter. The Broncos may even have an opportunity on the final possession to stun the Bills. They’ve kept games within striking distance all season and there’s no reason to believe that changes now.

Buffalo should find a way to escape, however, and that would likely set up a Game of the Year candidate if the Bills welcome the Baltimore Ravens to Orchard Park next weekend.

Main Photo: Brian Fluharty – USA Today Sports

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