Why was there such a sharp drop off in the run game in the second half?
After the opening drive against the Los Angeles Chargers, we were all ecstatic about the Denver Broncos. I was thinking (more so hoping) that they finally turned a page in the run game and could now be a team that dominates time of possession and abuses opposing front sevens. I was still feeling that way during the second drive. And then that hope was rekindled at the beginning of the second half.
And then that hope was smashed to pieces.
What is up with the refusal to consistently run the ball even when the play sheet literally says in big words at the top “RUN IT”?
It’s time again to take a look at the Broncos running game from last week and see what went well and what went poorly. We’ll be breaking down a bunch of statistical categories and film in an attempt to figure out where it all went wrong. And we’ll be highlighting the good parts of the game too. I’m not just a doomer.
And just for clarification, we’ll only be looking at designed run plays. So no scrambles from Bo Nix will count.
Stat crunch
The Broncos ran the ball 19 times against the Chargers. 11 of the rushes were in the first half and the other eight were in the second half.
The Broncos had a total of 10 offensive drives. Two of them featured four or more rushes on that series (the opening drive had seven running plays). Three drives featured just one rush and three of them had zero run plays.
The first 13 rushing attempts went for a gain, with that streak coming to an end when Marvin Mims fumbled a pitch in the opening drive of the second half. A total of 16 of 19 rushes went for a gain, one of those being the touchdown on the opening drive, and the other three went for a loss. No rush went for no gain.
Audric Estime got the majority of carries on Thursday with nine. Javonte Williams and Blake Watson had four, and Mims had two. Five of Estime’s nine carries came in the first half and accounted for half of the carries in the second half.
The Broncos ran for 80 yards against the Chargers on 19 rushes for 4.2 yards per carry. 61 yards came in the first half (5.5 YPC) and 40 yards came on the opening drive alone. The second half had just 19 yards (2.4 YPC). And only once did the rushing yards eclipse passing yards in any given drive, and that was the first one.
To focus on Estime, he had 48 yards on the night with 5.3 YPC. 27 of those yards came after contact (3 YPC after contact).
And the offensive line was doing there part on most of these rushes. Out of the 80 rushing yards, 45 of them came before contact. 40 of the 61 first half rushing yards came before contact (3.6 yards before contact per carry). But in the second half the Broncos only had 5 total yards before contact (0.6 YBCPC).
Per usual, most of the runs came out of Singleback (9), and Gun was the second most-used formation (5). Denver also sprinkled in a couple rushes out of Weak, and then one out of Strong, I, and Pistol Wing each.
The most popular play on Thursday was Inside Zone (as opposed to their heavy Duo diet) with six rushes. They also ran Power three times, Duo, Inside Trap, and Toss two times, Counter once, and an assortment of Whams with a Duo and Inside Zone look once. One of those even included a Fake Orbit Toss as well. A look that I assume will be in future game plans as a way to get Mims the ball.
Power was their favorite play in the first half, and the most consistent one, netting them rushes of six, nine, and three yards (this was their touchdown though). Inside Trap worked really well for them too, netting Denver nine and seven yards on two rushes.
And most of the time they were running to the right side of the defense (13 times).
In general
You could tell what the initial game plan was from the get go last week. Run the ball and get downfield with quick-hitting plays. It even included getting Estime the majority of looks. Which is what they should have done the last few weeks. And I think he should’ve gotten at least a few more carries on Thursday as well. His stats prove that as well. 5.3 yards per carry is just under what Jahmyr Gibbs is doing this year (and obviously this is a smaller sample size but you get the point I’m trying to make).
And his three yard after contact per carry is huge.
The change of pace with the kind of plays Sean Payton was calling was intentionally trying to get Estime the best looks as well. Estime is more of a power back and operates best out of gap-scheme running plays, as opposed to zone-scheme running plays. Zone-scheme is your Inside/ Outside Zones and Duos, while gap-scheme is your Powers, Counters, and Traps.
The six of Estime’s nine rushes were gap-scheme plays. On those he averaged 5.7 yards per carry. And that’s including the three-yard touchdown where he had plenty of running room. If you remove the touchdown, then that bumps his average up to 6.2 YPC.
When they Broncos ran the ball, I really liked what they were doing for the most part. it was successful and impactful and helped to take the pressure off of Bo Nix. Especially on the first drive where he was just able to take what the defense gave him and keep the ball moving. And this was even more so necessary on Thursday as you had a rookie quarterback facing off against the now top-ranked defense in points per game.
What kills me is the three second half drives that resulted in punts (second, third, and fourth of the half). In those drives they gained just 27 total yards, and went three-and-out on two of them.
The first of these three had a Watson run up the middle on Inside Zone for a loss of one, and that screwed up the series. In no world should there be anyone but Estime as your running back in that situation (to Watson’s defense, the right side of the offensive line got stalemated at the line of scrimmage but there was also a cutback lane to the left that Bolles made).
Then the second of these drives, Denver ran the ball on first down with Estime for five yards to set up 2nd and 5. Good. Then they pick up one first down but then throw deep on they following play, are then only able to pick up two yards on second, and then throw incomplete on third. And that two yard run was Williams running Duo. Another mistake. I love Williams and am still heartbroken by his injury that has screwed everything up for him, but it has to be Estime running the ball on second and long.
And then the next drive Nix gets sacked on first down. Estime is able to pick up seven off of an inside trap the next play, but Denver is unable to overcome the 3rd and 13.
If you want to be a team that runs the ball well, and even if it may be predictable, you have to run the ball on first down. And run the ball with your best running back, which is Audric Estime.
These three drives doomed the Broncos and is the main contributor to them blowing the lead last week and losing the game.
Good news is that these are fixable errors. And the offensive line was cooking for most of the game. And riding the hot hand isn’t just a thing when it comes to running backs. If the offensive line is having their way with the defense, keep running the ball and keep those big boys hot.
Now let’s take a look at some of the highlights from Thursday so we can end on a good note and enjoy Christmas.
The specifics
There is nothing that gets me going more than RUNNING FRICKEN POWER ON THE GOAL LINE. THIS IS FOOTBALL.
Sean Payton gets it. You have a power back in Estime and an offensive line that was dogging the Chargers all the way down the field. What do you do in a situation like this? You obviously run Power.
You got some great down blocks by Wattenberg, Meinerz, and McGlinchey on the play side and then Powers cleans up shop on the way into the endzone. And while Powers didn’t have a great game run blocking, he was money almost every time he was the puller.
You could drive a truck through this hole.
I wanted to show this play in the sideline view so you could see the Orbit Motion that the Broncos run to Mims on this one. Keep an eye out in the next two weeks to see if Denver runs this motion and actually gives it to Mims. Might be better doing that than just running straight Toss out of Singleback to him.
The full name of this play is Orbit Motion Y Wham Duo Left and features the offensive line down blocking to the left, the Y coming across the play to kick out the backside edge defender, while Mims motions in a looping pattern behind Nix, who hands the ball off and fakes the Toss to Mims.
Good blocking at the point of attack by Mike McGlinchey and Quinn Meinerz, and then you get rookie WR Devaughn Vele getting a good enough block on Joey Bosa to open things up for Williams, who shows what I think to be the best burst all year for him. Gets downfield with a head of steam and gains three yards after contact. A very well executed play.
And this last play I want to show off is one of the most quintessential Broncos plays we’ve seen all year from this squad. Inside Trap on the hashes is a beautiful play and is ran very well by Denver. I wish they’d run this more.
You get Wattenberg essentially handling two defenders on this play with his down block on he DT and him picking up the backer that shoots the gap, Garett Bolles getting all the way across the field on a key block, and Adam Trautman handles business on the backside with a nice block.
Then there’s Quinn Meinerz who destroys Teair Tart so bad that he starts throwing punches at the end of the play.
Estime does a great job of bouncing the ball out and running through contact at the end to pick up an extra six yards to set up Denver at the two yard line.
I love this style of football.
Final thoughts
When the Broncos ran the ball, they overwhelmingly ran the ball well. The offensive line and Estime were cooking, especially in the first half. The game came down to getting away from running the ball in the second half and three key drives that were filled with mistakes. Both personnel and play calling.
No matter what, it’s time to run a gap-scheme with Estime pounding the rock. Feed him. Run to the right side and have Powers pull all day long. And then run the Counter off of that or the Sweeps by Mims.
Run more of the Split Flex with Estime and Mims in the backfield. Please.
Merry Christmas.