Here’s how the Denver Broncos can pull off the upset on Sunday against the Buffalo Bills.
The Denver Broncos have the chance to pull off something incredible on Sunday when they travel to the friendly confines of the Buffalo Bills in the Wild Card Round of the NFL Playoffs. They’re coming off of a dominant game against the Chiefs where all facets of the game were clicking and it seems like the offense is getting rolling in play calling and execution at the right time.
And even though the Broncos head into the Playoffs losing two of their last three, those two losses happened to include an average of 25.5 points for the offense and Nix threw a combined five touchdowns to just one interception. And between those two teams, the Los Angeles Chargers have the league’s best scoring defense and the Bengals have the sixth-best scoring offense, the league’s best passing defense, and the triple crown winner. Long winded, but all of this to say that they took on and lost two one-score games against some of the league’s best.
The Broncos have a lot going for them at the moment and have a chance to play spoiler against some of the league’s most feared athletes. And they have the chance to, unfortunately, send a hero of the franchise packing.
Here’s how the Broncos beat the Bills.
1. Control the pace of play
It’s no surprise that one of the best ways to keep a dominant, MVP-caliber, quarterback from taking over the game is to simply keep him off of the field. This is the strategy used against Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, and many other studs. The Broncos have to keep Josh Allen off of the field for as long as possible. And the best way to do this is with sustained drives and avoiding three-and-outs as best as possible.
The Broncos need to be able to pound the rock when needed, and the Bills have a defense that makes it very possible to run the ball successfully against them. They need to stick with their heavy zone concepts with Jaleel McLaughlin and work the gap scheme with Estime. They need to find different ways through motions, shifts, and alignments to get the ball to Marvin Mims in space laterally to force the defense to widen, making it easier to run between the tackles.
And this strategy also likely involves aggressive play calling by Sean Payton. Like what we saw against the Chiefs. Denver can’t be afraid of attempting to convert a fourth and short even while in their own territory. They can’t be afraid of being like the Bengals and going for the touchdown on fourth and goal or fourth and short while within the red zone. What do they have to lose?
2. Keep Josh Allen contained
And what happens when Josh Allen does get his chances with the ball in his hands?
The Broncos need to find a way to get pressure on Josh Allen and give him less time to pick the defense apart. This will be no easy task though considering Allen has only been sacked 14 times this year, the lowest in the league. This is partially due to the Bills’ OTs being ranked 8th and 15th in pass block win rates and also having the 14th ranked OG in win rates. It’s also due to Josh Allen being untouchable in the backfield even when he is pressured.
The edge rushers are going to need to do everything they can to keep Allen contained in the pocket and allow for Zach Allen to put the center into the lap of Josh. And it’s up to hopeful DPOY Pat Surtain to lock down the Buffalo receiving threat and it’ll be huge if Riley Moss can turn things back up again. I’m looking forward to seeing what sort of new blitz packages Vance Joseph hopefully has in store for Sunday.
3. Force turnovers
One thing that any team that is outgunned has to do is win the turn over battle. This might be the most important thing for Denver to accomplish this week. They need to play a scrappy game to keep this matchup tight, and they need to find a way to entirely flip momentum and field position come Sunday.
The defense’s ability to give Nix and the offense a short field or the offense’s ability to play a clean game and avoid giving Buffalo any additional advantages may determine the entire course of the game.
Much like what the offensive play calling needs to be, the Broncos defense must be aggressive in going for the ball, forcing fumbles, and jumping routes.