Here’s how the Denver Broncos can all but secure a playoff birth against the Indianapolis Colts.
They might not play often, but the history of the Denver Broncos and Indianapolis Colts matchup dates all the way back to 1974 when they were still in Baltimore. And besides the lengthy win streak the Colts had against Denver while Peyton Manning was still their quarterback, it’s been a back-and-forth battle between the two with Indy leading the all time record 15-14.
And while the Colts may have the edge in this one, they don’t have Peyton Manning referring to them as “my team” on the Manningcast during Monday Night Football.
Also, I know I usually take a look at the most recent matchup between the teams on these articles, but I think we’ll all be okay skipping over it.
A playoff birth is almost guaranteed with a win on Sunday, while a loss makes the race incredibly tight. The Colts have a very favorable schedule remaining with the Titans, Giants, and Jags looming, while the Broncos are up against the Chargers, Bengals, and Chiefs. All things considered, this game might as well be called a must-win.
Here’s how the Broncos can all but secure their spot in the postseason for the first time since 2015.
1. Have a 100-yard rusher
It’s been 29 games since the Broncos have had a 100-yard rusher. It’s time for that to end on Sunday. I have a longer breakdown of the Colts run defense and how Denver can exploit it posted a couple of days ago, but here’s the gist of it:
The Colts are giving up the second-most rushing yards per game at 147. They have given up 200+ yards three times this year, most recently against the Patriots in Week 13. Four games have featured a running back putting up at least 100 yards with the game’s top rusher averaging 88.7 YPG.
There is a very real chance that the Broncos can dominate the front seven and I think Jaleel McLaughlin is breaking the 100 yard barrier on Sunday.
2. Party in the backfield
The Denver pass rush has been phenomenal this year and is reaching levels of dominance not seen since the days of Von Miller/ Demarcus Ware or Von Miller/ Bradley Chubb. They have the most sacks in the lead with 47 and the next-closest team is the Texans with just 42. Nik Bonitto has 11 sacks over the last 10 games (tied for second-most in the league). You even have Jonah Ellis tied for the second-most sacks among rookies with five.
Vance Joseph and company have been cooking quarterbacks and offensive lines this year, and they need that to continue. Anthony Richardson has to be hit and taken down early and often.
And with starting Right Tackle Braden Smith expected to miss the game, that’ll make things even better for Denver.
3. Figure out the CB2 situation
This key comes into play with the last one. The better the pass rush is, then obviously the easier it will be to cover the receivers. But the Broncos had an issue two weeks ago when Jerry Jeudy torched backup cornerback Levi Wallace for over 200 yards and a touchdown, and it could’ve been worse if Jameis Winston was a touch more accurate.
They eventually got Wallace off of the field but the damage his coverage dealt was just about lethal. With it trending towards Riley Moss missing another game, the Broncos need to figure out who will play opposite of Pat Surtain. Whether that be Damarri Mathis, Kris Abrams-Draine, or Ja’Quan McMillian, someone has to step up. Or the defensive scheme has to accommodate the weakness.
I have no doubt that Surtain will shut down his side of the field. We just need the other side to be taken care of now.