Allen and Buffalo are the No. 2 seed in the AFC and look poised to make a deep run. How are fans feelings?
Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills are looking to take the final step.
As is the case with the franchise, the Bills have been close but come up a bit short. This season, Allen put up a likely MVP season, and Buffalo is the No. 2 seed in the AFC Playoffs. Hence, some Bills fans have already put them in the next round.
Before that happens, Allen and Buffalo host Bo Nix and the outmatched Denver Broncos at 11 a.m. on Sunday at Highmark Stadium.
We go “behind enemy lines” to get a feel for the Bills heading into the Wild Card round with Matt Byham from Buffalo Rumblings to preview the playoff game.
MHR: How is Bills Mafia feeling heading into the playoffs? Is this the season Buffalo finally clears the playoff hurdle and gets to the Super Bowl?
Matt: I can only speak for the community at Buffalo Rumblings, of course — and the way I feel may be altogether different than the majority of Rumblers. Oh, how I want this season to be the one where everything clicks. In response to your question about how fans are feeling, heading into Sunday, Reacts voters voiced an approval rating of over 90%. That’s good, but not a season-high.
Almost every Bills fan old enough to remember the team’s Super Bowl years, Y2K, and the 17-season playoff drought will tell you that confidence is often chased by a healthy dose of apprehension.
Certainly, there’s an immense amount of pressure on head coach Sean McDermott and the Bills to take that next step this season, which may include a Super Bowl appearance. I get all of that, and I agree to some extent.
But apart from the Kansas City Chiefs (sigh), no team has won more or accomplished as much as McDermott’s Bills since he took over in 2018. So if that hurdle is some phantasmagorical slender man manifested as Andy Reid/Patrick Mahomes mojo, then yes — I believe this season offers perhaps Buffalo’s best opportunity to get past their KC hurdle. (Side note, Bills Mafia really doesn’t like the Chiefs.)
To do all that, the Bills first need to ensure they take the Broncos seriously.
MHR: Why has Josh Allen been so good this season? Aside from Allen, what are the Bills’ strengths and weaknesses?
Matt: Honestly? Without trying to sound pompous: because he’s Josh Allen. Seventeen is must-see TV every week, due to his propensity to make the impossible look routine every snap.
Like any highly successful professional athlete, Allen is fueled by his critics, adversity, and worse. But Allen’s makeup trends more in line with one Tom Brady, who waltzed his way to the greatest NFL career a quarterback ever found. I’m not at all saying that Allen is at Brady’s level — that’s just unfair to either guy. But I would put Allen’s drive and motivation up against the same of Brady any day.
So why has he been so good in 2024? He had zero option to be anything else if the team was going to succeed. The craziest stat of Allen’s season may be that he sat out the equivalent of three games in 2024 — and not because of a dominant defense. Allen and the offense put up a massive amount of points, namely 30 or more in 13 games.
The real reason may be due to what Allen didn’t do in 2024, which was force passes and turn the ball over while trying to will a victory. Without Stefon Diggs, there wasn’t anyone demanding the football every down, so Allen was able to see more of the field and find open receivers working through his progressions rather than just defaulting to Diggs each and every snap.
Allen plays football like no one else in the NFL right now — including Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes. He makes throws no one else would dare, and he’s impossible to defend most of the time when it happens. Allen has performed well against man coverage this season (key facing Denver), and it often gives him a chance to use his legs to break big plays on scrambles.
There’s also this video to consider.
Aside from Allen, Buffalo’s strengths lie mainly on offense. The running game is a force, with three legitimate backs in James Cook, Ty Johnson, and rookie Ray Davis. Though Allen’s touchdowns garner the most attention, Cook finished with 16 rushing scores, tying a franchise record set by the one and only O.J. Simpson.
At receiver, it all begins with slot dynamo Khalil Shakir. He’s an incredible after-the-catch receiver who almost never lets a football pass by his hands. Of course, without Diggs, the team adopted an “everybody eats” mentality, which meant that promising rookie Keon Coleman and late arrival Amari Cooper were going to be part of the equation — rather than the sum total of production.
While not well-known outside of fantasy football circles, Buffalo’s receiving group is deep especially when considering tight ends Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox. Players such as Curtis Samuel and Mack Hollins (the TD vulture) might have frustrated fantasy players, but Hollins especially came up huge in so many ways, similar in mold to Robert Woods.
I’ll stick with strengths to begin talking about the defense without diving much into individual stats and figures. Defensive back remains a strength, with cornerback Christian Benford criminally underrated by his peers and the Associated Press. He’s not quite the player that Patrick Surtain II is, but he’s not far behind him. Add in Rasul Douglas’ zone ability, and Buffalo’s outside duo allows the defense to run zone-heavy looks featuring nickel cornerback Taron Johnson — who’s arguably the best at his position. Linebacker is another strength, but the Bills only field two in Terrell Bernard and Matt Milano (or Dorian Williams) consistently.
Regarding weakness, defensively, it has to be the unit’s struggles containing the run. Too often, Buffalo’s defensive line as a whole appeared outmatched in the trenches, and also unable to get enough consistent pressure against the pass game. If that shows up in the playoffs, it’ll feel like Groundhog Day for Bills Mafia. Too many times, Buffalo’s defensive line disappears in big games. Whether that’s due to the heavy rotation utilized where players aren’t able to get into grooves, scheme, or something else — how the Bills’ D-line plays may prove to be a deciding factor Sunday.
If there’s a weakness on offense, it’s perhaps lacking a proficient and consistent long pass play. That’s why Amari Cooper was brought in, and his arrival certainly helped a bit. So much of any deep pass depends on QB-WR chemistry, and Allen’s only returning receivers in 2024 were Shakir (slot) and his tight end room. Additionally, given the makeup of the Bills’ wide receiver room, they each fail to gain a ton of separation — while excelling at contested catches.
MHR: How will Buffalo attack the Broncos on offense and defense? What do the Bills have to do to get the win on Sunday?
Matt: Sunday’s game will present a real challenge for the Bills. On offense, I believe they’ll try to bleed the clock with a time-consuming passing attack that doesn’t look too dissimilar from the Chiefs’ system in 2024. You can be certain that Brady wants to set the tone against that terrific defense and to wear them down early.
However, I’d bet on Brady having an alternate plan in place should the Broncos shut that all down, and it might look a lot like what unfolded against the Los Angeles Rams and Detroit Lions. The question then becomes whether or not Denver is able to match play in a shoot-out.
Defensively, Buffalo must get pressure on Bo Nix and make him uncomfortable. If the Bills can force Denver’s offense to be one-dimensional, it will undoubtedly make things very difficult on Nix, who, of course, is making his first start in Bills Country. They must find ways to steal possessions from Nix and company. It’s not going to come easy against Denver’s offensive line, I realize.
I’ve said it all season, but the key to victory for the Buffalo Bills is getting to 30 points. The Bills finished 11-1 when scoring 30 or more points (2-1 when scoring 40-plus). They finished undefeated at home, scoring 30 or more points in seven of eight games.
Should the Bills manage to get out to an early lead, it would allow the defense to play its best brand of football. Above all else, Allen and the offense cannot take their foot off the gas before there are too few possessions for the Broncos to catch up.
MHR: What significance does last season’s game between these two teams have on the playoff game?
Matt: I sense the smelling salts you’re offering here, and I enjoy the suggestion, to be honest. Forget that game’s final outcome — the score and individual stats. That game was defined by one horrendous coaching error courtesy of Sean McDermott.
Though it was a special teams error where too many men on the field gave the Broncos a mulligan to make good on an otherwise missed field goal, the root of that error lies with McDermott. The other problem was turnovers, all four of them for the Bills. Perhaps the biggest loss among those turnovers was the benching of James Cook — who did fumble on the first play from scrimmage — for 20 game minutes. One has to wonder what Cook could have accomplished in those drives he missed and if that would have changed the halftime score.
I would bet that McDermott hasn’t forgotten that game, that final moment, and what he could have, should have done then and otherwise. In the ashes of that defeat, McDermott gave then-offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey his walking papers. It’s true the offense struggled far too much, given the situation, but Buffalo stole defeat from the jaws of a walk-off victory sigh.
I suppose you can look to that loss as the defining moment for the Bills’ offense, since Joe Brady was handed the keys to the Koenigsegg that is a Josh Allen offense. Things have worked out pretty well with Brady calling plays.
Many are prone to talking about that game in the same context of other major McDermott coaching blunders — “chiefly” the “13 seconds” all-time playoff game at Arrowhead. No human is perfect (see: Michael Jordan’s baseball career), but there are enough examples where plenty of Bills fans wonder “what next” and when it’s going to happen.
But separate from all that, I wouldn’t say last season’s game holds any significance with Sunday’s matchup.
MHR: What are your expectations and predictions for Sunday’s wild-card game?
Matt: Before going any further, and as much as you may have hoped for it: I’m not one to directly predict the outcome or score of any Buffalo Bills game. Call it superstition or worse, but it’s part of what makes me who I am as a Bills fan.
There are plenty of reasons to believe the Broncos can defeat the Bills this Sunday.
I will say that I see zero valid excuses to label this a trap game for Buffalo. Though rosters from coaching on down change a ton every offseason, the key names at One Bills Drive are well-seasoned by postseason play. Furthermore, this Broncos team is very talented, and to get the level of play they have from a rookie quarterback makes for a dangerous and relatively unknown foe coming to Orchard Park, NY.
Admittedly, I’m more concerned with how Denver’s defense does against Allen and Buffalo’s offense. (Fifty-nine sacks? Yikes!) If they manage to bottle up the Bills there, it’s anyone’s guess as to how defensive coordinator Bobby Babich and his unit would respond. I don’t love the thought of Buffalo having to prevail in a defensive battle.
Considering the regular season and holding opponents to less than 20 points in 11 games, can Denver do the same to the Bills? I believe it’s wise to throw out what happened for either team in Week 18, given the scenarios at play.
As a reminder, Josh Allen’s career postseason numbers are absolutely absurd. In 10 playoff games, Allen has 21 touchdown passes and just four interceptions — with 2,723 passing yards, 563 rushing yards, and five rushing touchdowns. He’s shown to play huge in the biggest moments.
I’m happy for Broncos Country and Bo Nix, but I’d prefer Denver wait to take a bigger leap until it doesn’t affect the Bills’ season. This should be a fantastic game to watch!