Does it make sense to draft a running back in the first round?

If the best RB in college football in 2024 is there at 20 should the Broncos take him?

Ashton Jeanty finished the 2024 season with 374 carries for 2601 yards and 29 rushing TDs. He also added 23 catches for 108 yards and 1 TD. He 6.95 yards per carry and 2709 yards from scrimmage were both eye-popping, but one of the knocks on him was that he played against “weak” competition in the Mountain West conference and many previous BSU RBs who have looked great in college have been “failures” in the NFL.

Jeanty had four games this season where he faced a team that ended up ranked (UNLV 2x) – here are his rushing stats for those four games

• 25 for 192 with 3 TDs – against Oregon
• 33 for 128 with 1 TD – UNLV
• 32 for 209 with 1 TD – UNLV
• 30 for 104 – PSU

in 2023 he faced one ranked team – Washington which finished the season by losing in the National Championship game. He had 10 carries for for 44 in that blowout season-opening loss. He also had 4 catches for 109 and 1 TD in that game.

in 2022 he didn’t play that much, but he did face three ranked teams

• 4 for 16 vs Oregon St along with 6 catches for 52 yards.
• 19 for 109 with 2 TDs vs Fresno St
• 7 for 32 vs Fresno St

His best game against a quality team came in 2023 against Oregon.

This got me thinking about other RBs who have dominated at BSU and were drafted relatively early – Doug Martin (31st overall) and Alex Mattison (102 overall). Martin made the Pro Bowl twice and once made All-Pro. He had over 1000 yards rushing twice in his seven NFL seasons. Mattison has only had one season as RB1 for a team, 2023. He got 180 carries for the Vikings that season to lead the team. Now just because neither Martin not Mattison turned into elite NFL RBs, doesn’t necessarily mean that Jeanty won’t. So let’s turn to a larger question: does it make sense to use a first round pick on a running back?

There have been 46 RBs taken in the first round this century. Some, like Saquon Barkley, have turned into elite NFL RBs. While many have not. See the table below.

For every Barkley, there are two or three Leonard Fournettes, David Wilson’s or Jahvid Best’s, along with some Rashad Penny’s, Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s and a few Knowshon Moreno’s.

Derrick Henry was a second round pick. Of the top 10 RBs in YPC in 2024 (min 70 carries), only three were taken in the first round: Barkley, Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson. Two were undrafted.

If we call the first round RBs who have averaged 700 or more rushing yards per season successes, 37 of 69 first round RBs who have played this century have been successes. Some are now in the Hall of Fame (see below).

So with all this what do you want the Broncos to do if the “best RB” in college football is available at 20?