Full league advanced punting review for 2024

How did Riley Dixon compare to other punters in 2024 and should the Denver Broncos bring the free agent punter back for 2025?

I have access to a lot of stats about the NFL, but one stat that, to the best of my knowledge, is only available behind paywalls is punter hangtime. If someone wants to find where Riley Dixon ranked in terms of hangtime, I would be grateful.

Standard punting stats can be found in many places. The league has started tracking punts downed inside the 20, but just looking at the misses context (where was the punt starting LOS and how often did the punter over-punt and end up with a touchback when trying to get one inside the 20). To that end I do a number of things in this review that you will find nowhere else:

1. determine the percentage of total yardage that the punter could have “gained” for his and and then did actually “gain” – this is done by calculating potential punt yards. On short field punts (punts from the team’s own 35 or better), the best possible outcome is downing at the one. On long-field punts (from the 34 or worse), the best possible outcome is defined at a 65 yard punt.
2. I split out short and long field punts
3. I calculate what I call the precision punt performance (PPP) which is the percentage downed inside the 10 minus the touchback percentage.
4. I calculate the percentage of punts downed inside the 10
5. I calculate the percentage of punts downed inside the 5

Since Riley Dixon was the only punter who punted for the Denver Broncos this season, any time you see Bronco punting, just read it as Dixon.

So here is how Dixon ranked:

• Net Punt AVG: 12th
• Gross Punt AVG: 20th
• PPP: 7th
• in20%: 12th
• in10%: 9th
• in5%: 8th
• TB% (smallest): 14th
• FC% (largest): 8th
• average punt return allowed (smallest): 10th

So Dixon (and the punt coverage team) was/were average or better in every stat except gross average. Of course that is a little odd since Dixon had roughly half of his punts at altitude where the ball flies farther, but maybe he was focusing on hangtime and placement. The high percentage of fair catches forced and the fairly low average punt return allowed would seem to indicate that.

Dixon and the coverage team were also elite at pinning opponents at the one. They accomplished this SIX times during the season. This was the most ever (going back to 1994) for any team and two more than the previous high of four. I came up with a way to weight punts inside the 10: ten points for a punt downed at the one, nine for downed at the two, eight for downed at the three, etc. The Bronco punt team was the best in the league (tied with the Browns).

Using this weighted metric for determining how good a punt team was at pinning the opponent deep. Some seasons the Broncos had zero punts downed at the one.

So how did Dixon do in terms of maximizing Bronco field position (“gaining” yardage)? He was 17th in overall punt percentage, 12th in long field punt percentage and 15th in short field punt percentage.

So even the worst punter in the league was getting 70% of the potential yards on average. So if you were punting from the 20 that would mean a 46 yard net punt, so the opponent would be starting from their own 34. The best punter in the league in this metric, Jack Fox, of the Lions, was getting 80%. So he would hit a 52 net from his own 20, meaning that the opponent would start at their own 28. But is there really that big of a difference between starting a drive at the 28 or the 34? Yes, there is.

Using the plot here, we can get a rough estimate at how many points Jack Fox saved on punts relative to the three guys who punted for the Bucs from expected points added (EPA). So a drive starting at the 34 is 66 yards from the endzone. The EPA there is 1.50 on first down. A drive starting at the 28 is 72 yards from the opponent’s endzone. The EPA on that 0.94. So the best punter in the league is was saving about half a point per punt relative to the worst punters in the league.

As we all know, a great punter can make the job of the defense easier. Was Riley Dixon a great punter in 2024? No, but he was better than average. Could he be replaced easily and more cheaply? Of course, but I would like the reward the Bronco draftee with a nice contract to keep him around. Showing loyalty to players who have performed above average, particularly special teams guys, is good for establishing team culture, if the team has the money to do so.

The highest paid punters in the NFL make roughly 3.5 million per year. It will not be cost-prohibitive to give Dixon a decent free agent contract for a punter (say 2.5 to 3.0 million). Punters tend to hang around the league for a long time and the punter frat is hard to get into and hard to get kicked out of. The average age of the punters in the NFL last season was 29.7 and the oldest was 39. The youngest was 24 (Ethan Evans of the Rams).