Comparative analysis of in-depth QB metrics for all starting NFL QBs and how well Bo Nix did in his rookie season.
Bo Nix had one of the best seasons ever for a rookie NFL QB. His 34 total TDs was only topped by Justin Herbert. Herbert had 36 total (31 passing and 5 rushing). From a touchdown perspective Nix was better than Peyton Manning, Cam Newton, Jayden Daniels, Caleb Williams, Bryce Young, Trevor Lawrence, Joe Burrow, Kyler Murray, Baker Mayfield, Jared Goff, Cam Newton, and every other QB taken #1 or #2 overall in NFL history.
In terms of old school stats among the 40 starting QBs (min 200 passes), he finished:
- 12th in passing yards
- 15th in COMP %
- 6th in passing TDs
- 19th in INT %
- 18th in passer rating
- 19th in QBR
- 28th in success rate
- 18th in ANYA
- tied for 6th in fourth quarter comebacks with 3
- tied for 11th in game winning drives with 3
- 6th in lowest sack rate
For the SIS data I used min 300 passing attempts as my definition of a “starting QB”
Using dropbacks instead of passing attempts as the denominator, Nix moves up to 4th lowest sack rate. Only Josh Allen (2.6%), Derek Carr (2.7%) and Jordan Love (3.1%) had a lower sack rate (sacks/dropbacks).
By SIS points system Nix finished 7th in total points earned passing (90) and 12th in rushing points earned (12). Since it’s hard to fit this in HTML format I’m going to drop a screenshot of the table here. You can go to SISdatahub.com to sort this yourself if you want to. 40 QBs had 200 or more passing attempts with former Bronco, Drew Lock, just having enough at 204.
Nix was 22nd in on-target% and 21st in catchable%. He was 24th in average throw depth. Nix was 34th in Air Yards % at 43.9%. That means he had one of the highest YAC% in the league since 1 – AY% = YAC%. So Nix was 7th in YAC%. That generally means you are hitting your receivers with the ball in a position where they can run after the catch. 2118 of Nix passing yards came from YAC. The only guys with a higher percentage were Aaron Rodgers, Mac Jones, Jared Goff, Drew Lock, Patrick Mahomes and Tua Tagovailoa.
I honestly never thought I would be typing a sentence with those six QBs all in the top in a particular stat. Also remember that many of the Denver Broncos receivers this season were not good at getting YAC on their own by making defenders miss. Honestly, only Marvin Mims was a YAC threat. Troy Franklin could be, but his 5.8 YAC per catch this season was quite pedestrian.
Broncos receiving stats this season (below)
| Player | Tgt | Rec | Yds | 1D | YBC | YBC/R | YAC | YAC/R | ADOT | BrkTkl | Drop |
| Blake Watson | 2 | 1 | 13 | 0 | -5 | -5.0 | 18 | 18.0 | -2.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Marvin Mims | 52 | 39 | 503 | 14 | 26 | 0.7 | 477 | 12.2 | 7.4 | 0 | 3 |
| Javonte Williams | 70 | 52 | 346 | 14 | -49 | -0.9 | 395 | 7.6 | -0.3 | 4 | 7 |
| Adam Trautman | 22 | 13 | 188 | 8 | 90 | 6.9 | 98 | 7.5 | 5.5 | 0 | 1 |
| Audric Estime | 5 | 5 | 27 | 2 | -10 | -2.0 | 37 | 7.4 | -2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 27 | 24 | 76 | 3 | -91 | -3.8 | 167 | 7.0 | -3.8 | 1 | 0 |
| Lil’Jordan Humphrey | 45 | 31 | 293 | 12 | 101 | 3.3 | 192 | 6.2 | 6.5 | 3 | 3 |
| Troy Franklin | 53 | 28 | 263 | 11 | 100 | 3.6 | 163 | 5.8 | 13.0 | 1 | 3 |
| Nate Adkins | 15 | 14 | 115 | 6 | 39 | 2.8 | 76 | 5.4 | 4.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Michael Burton | 10 | 10 | 65 | 3 | 24 | 2.4 | 41 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 0 | 0 |
| Lucas Krull | 23 | 19 | 152 | 7 | 85 | 4.5 | 67 | 3.5 | 5.1 | 2 | 0 |
| Devaughn Vele | 55 | 41 | 475 | 26 | 348 | 8.5 | 127 | 3.1 | 8.4 | 0 | 3 |
| Greg Dulcich | 12 | 5 | 28 | 0 | 13 | 2.6 | 15 | 3.0 | 5.9 | 0 | 2 |
| Josh Reynolds | 19 | 12 | 183 | 8 | 148 | 12.3 | 35 | 2.9 | 11.4 | 0 | 0 |
| Courtland Sutton | 135 | 81 | 1081 | 57 | 902 | 11.1 | 179 | 2.2 | 13.2 | 1 | 9 |
| Tyler Badie | 3 | 3 | -2 | 0 | -6 | -2.0 | 4 | 1.3 | -2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bo Nix | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
Nix finished 25th in average throw depth (ATD). Anthony Richardson was a step above all other starting QBs in this stat with a crazy 9.8 yards. Tua was last in this at 5.0, which was almost exactly half of Richardson’s ATD.
SIS has passing by distance and direction, but I have removed the directional data from the chart below to make it easier to see the distance comparisons. I will do the directional data later this month. They break the stats down into for distances as to where the ball lands. I did this with a min of 300 passing attempts to make the chart easier to read. 26 QBs had 300 or more passing attempts.
- Behind the Line of Scrimmage (BLOS)
- Short (0-9 yards from LOS)
- Intermediate (INT) (10-19 yards from LOS) – not to be confused with INT when it means interception
- Deep (20 or more yards from LOS)
SIS has their own QB rating system – IQR
IQR: Sports Info Solutions’ proprietary quarterback metric builds on the traditional Passer Rating formula by considering the value of a quarterback independent of results outside of his control such as dropped passes, dropped interceptions, throwaways, etc.
Nix had the 5th best IQR on throws BLOS at 98. Only Brock Purdy, Tua, Josh Allen, and Lamar Jackson were better.
Nix was t-22nd in Short IQR. Only Brock Purdy, Drake Maye and Cooper Rush had a lower IQR on short throws. Nix’ 88 was tied with Geno Smith.
Nix finished 15th in intermediate IQR at 78. Russell Wilson (?!?) led the league with an INT IQR of 143, but part of that was a result of how few intermediate throws he had. Russ only attempted 39 intermediate throws, which was the fewest among the 26 QBs. Jayden Daniels’ INT IQR 111 was good for 4th best. Fellow rookie QB, Caleb Williams, was the worst starting QB in the league on intermediate throws with an IQR of 48.
Nix was tied for 12th (with Josh Allen and Bryce Young) in terms of deep IQR at 79. Justin Herbert led the league at 113 while Daniel Jones 47 was the worst among starters. Nix’ 38.8% completion percentage on deep passes was 13th best among starters. Only one QB had a completion percentage above 50% on deep throws, that was Sam Darnold at 52.3%.
Nix was good but not great throwing the ball on 3rd or 4th down in the 4th quarter or overtime (see below). With a minimum of 20 passing attempts, his passing rating on those situations was 14th (97.4). Lamar Jackson was the best in the league with a passer rating of 143.1. Daniel Jones 32.3 was the worst among the 37 qualifiers. Despite having the third most passing attempts, Nix was only sacked once on 3rd or 4th down in the 4th quarter or overtime. Compare that to Aaron Rodgers who was sacked 7 times and and Caleb Williams who was sacked 8 times. Nix was similarly hard to sack on those situations to Jared Goff and Matthew Stafford.
| Player | Cmp | Att | Cmp% | Yds | TD | Int | Sk | Yds | Y/A | 1D | Rate |
| Caleb Williams | 41 | 60 | 68.3 | 414 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -71 | 6.9 | 28 | 97.5 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 30 | 48 | 62.5 | 466 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -54 | 9.7 | 20 | 91.1 |
| Bo Nix | 31 | 47 | 66.0 | 395 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -13 | 8.4 | 18 | 97.4 |
| Jared Goff | 28 | 46 | 60.9 | 274 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -14 | 6.0 | 18 | 99.4 |
| Matthew Stafford | 27 | 43 | 62.8 | 280 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -22 | 6.5 | 15 | 97.0 |
| C.J. Stroud | 26 | 43 | 60.5 | 288 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -67 | 6.7 | 18 | 86.2 |
| Geno Smith | 28 | 42 | 66.7 | 267 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -54 | 6.4 | 20 | 90.1 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 26 | 41 | 63.4 | 274 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -28 | 6.7 | 20 | 88.9 |
| Bryce Young | 21 | 41 | 51.2 | 248 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -38 | 6.0 | 15 | 67.9 |
| Sam Darnold | 16 | 39 | 41.0 | 195 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -49 | 5.0 | 14 | 63.5 |
| Jayden Daniels | 26 | 38 | 68.4 | 241 | 6 | 1 | 2 | -7 | 6.3 | 19 | 114.1 |
| Baker Mayfield | 26 | 37 | 70.3 | 371 | 5 | 0 | 3 | -14 | 10.0 | 22 | 142.0 |
| Joe Burrow | 22 | 37 | 59.5 | 253 | 2 | 1 | 9 | -60 | 6.8 | 15 | 86.9 |
| Kirk Cousins | 21 | 37 | 56.8 | 214 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -32 | 5.8 | 10 | 57.7 |
| Daniel Jones | 16 | 35 | 45.7 | 154 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -16 | 4.4 | 13 | 32.3 |
| Drake Maye | 19 | 34 | 55.9 | 227 | 5 | 1 | 3 | -26 | 6.7 | 13 | 103.8 |
| Lamar Jackson | 22 | 32 | 68.8 | 339 | 5 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 10.6 | 16 | 143.1 |
| Russell Wilson | 19 | 32 | 59.4 | 265 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -18 | 8.3 | 15 | 112.6 |
| Jameis Winston | 24 | 32 | 75.0 | 257 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -14 | 8.0 | 18 | 95.4 |
| Justin Herbert | 16 | 32 | 50.0 | 119 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -24 | 3.7 | 8 | 80.1 |
| Kyler Murray | 16 | 32 | 50.0 | 255 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -35 | 8.0 | 13 | 37.4 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 22 | 31 | 71.0 | 242 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -13 | 7.8 | 15 | 91.1 |
| Will Levis | 10 | 30 | 33.3 | 171 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -58 | 5.7 | 7 | 36.3 |
| Brock Purdy | 17 | 28 | 60.7 | 181 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -9 | 6.5 | 12 | 76.6 |
| Aidan O’Connell | 17 | 27 | 63.0 | 170 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -7 | 6.3 | 13 | 102.4 |
| Cooper Rush | 14 | 27 | 51.9 | 130 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -21 | 4.8 | 7 | 62.3 |
| Jordan Love | 15 | 26 | 57.7 | 204 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -24 | 7.8 | 10 | 108.5 |
| Joe Flacco | 15 | 26 | 57.7 | 162 | 5 | 1 | 1 | -4 | 6.2 | 12 | 99.7 |
| Mac Jones | 16 | 24 | 66.7 | 204 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -35 | 8.5 | 10 | 115.3 |
| Anthony Richardson | 14 | 24 | 58.3 | 186 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -16 | 7.8 | 10 | 96.9 |
| Josh Allen | 10 | 24 | 41.7 | 134 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5.6 | 7 | 60.1 |
| Spencer Rattler | 10 | 24 | 41.7 | 83 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -17 | 3.5 | 5 | 33.9 |
| Jalen Hurts | 18 | 23 | 78.3 | 237 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -16 | 10.3 | 13 | 120.5 |
| Derek Carr | 13 | 21 | 61.9 | 164 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7.8 | 7 | 118.0 |
| Dak Prescott | 9 | 21 | 42.9 | 103 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4.9 | 6 | 70.1 |
| Gardner Minshew II | 14 | 21 | 66.7 | 94 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -8 | 4.5 | 8 | 68.5 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 8 | 21 | 38.1 | 79 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -32 | 3.8 | 7 | 61.4 |
Lamar Jackson’s five TD throws on 3rd or 4th down in the 4th quarter with zero interceptions is pretty crazy when you consider he did that on only 32 throws. Jayden Daniels also was unreal in these situations with 6 TD passes and only 1 pick on 38 throws while only getting sacked twice. FWIW Jackson was only sacked once in these situations.
In terms of the rest of Nix splits (see below, pulled from ESPN.com) some of the interesting things to me are as follows:
- Nix was not sacked deep in Bronco territory at all
- Nix threw 3 TDs and 3 INTs in the first quarter and 26 TDs and 9 INTs in the rest of the regulation quarters
- Nix had 22 red zone passing TDs with only one RZ interception. FWIW all four of his rushing TDs were in the red zone as well. So 27 of his 34 TDs were in the red zone (including his receiving TD).
