NFL Championship Game Weekend: Hart’s Picks

For Divisional Round Weekend, Mile High Report’s Christopher Hart picked only two of four games correctly. Here are his straight up picks for the NFL’s Conference Championship Round.

After picking just two of four games correctly in the NFL’s Divisional Round playoff matchups, I’m back to try my luck to predict who wins this weekend in the Conference Championship Round.

It’s been a really fun season and it’s coming to a close quickly. Both matchups this Sunday should be a lot of fun and I hope you all get to enjoy them. Without further ado, here are my thoughts and picks for Championship Weekend.

NFC Championship (Afternoon Game) – Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles

The first game on the slate is the NFC Championship Game. Two NFC East rivals square off for the third time this season to decide who gets to play in Super Bowl LIX. The Commanders and Eagles split their regular season series in 2024 with both teams winning at home.

Adam Peters, Dan Quinn, and the franchise’s new ownership really hit the ground running this season with the Commanders. They deserve a lot of praise for what they accomplished in such a short time. I felt they would be competitive in a few years, so to see them doing this great early on is quite a surprise.

Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels has been a revelation and Terry McLaurin put together an All-Pro season catching 82 passes for 1096 yards and 13 touchdowns. In order to defeat the Eagles those two are going to have to come up big. The Eagles’ secondary has been banged up over the latter portion of the season which could pose some problems for them. If several players can’t go on their defensive backend, that would certainly help the Commanders’ chances at pulling off a victory due to their explosive down the field passing game.

For the Eagles, their offensive success in 2024 has come via strong offensive line play and the phenomenal production of Saquon Barkley who rushed for over 2,000 yards this season. The Commanders’ offense has been on fire in recent weeks, so I’d expect a healthy dose of Barkley and their running game to limit his ability to get on the field and make game-changing plays. Can Defensive Coordinator Vic Fangio come up with a good enough plan to limit Daniels’ impact on the game? That’s my big question for the game.

We’ll just have to wait and see. This might be a shock to some, but I’m rolling with the Commanders this weekend and think they pull off an upset on the road.

Winner: Commanders

AFC Championship (Evening Game) – Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs

The AFC Championship features two heavyweight teams in the Bills and Chiefs. Looking back, the Bills were the only team to defeat the Chiefs in the regular season. They accrued 24 first downs and 30 points in that matchup. Will lightning strike twice? We won’t know until Sunday night, but I think it’s safe to assume Broncos Country and a whole lot of other football fans will be rooting for Buffalo.

The Chiefs’ offense led by Patrick Mahomes ranked in the middle half of the league in most metrics. It was a significant drop off compared to prior years, but still good enough to get the job done. Part of that is because their defense was Top 5 in points allowed and Top 10 in yards allowed. Additionally, they were one of the better teams in the NFL with a +6-turnover margin in the regular season. That definitely helped them in a handful of close games.

But the Bills are on a whole other level when it comes to turnover differential. They were +24 during the regular season and usually dominated the time of possession in their games. They (like the Chiefs) were also one of the best teams on converting third downs all season. Josh Allen has been magical for the Bills and has truly elevated the team this year, but their offensive line and rushing attack has been great as well.

I think this will be a close game. However, my belief is that Allen and the Bills’ offense will rise to the occasion and get the job done on the road in Arrowhead. And guess what? That will give Von Miller a chance to win a third Super Bowl with a third different team. Wouldn’t that be awesome?

Winner: Bills