NFL Playoff Picture: Broncos are comfortably in as the AFC’s 7th seed

The Denver Broncos are currently the 7th seed in the AFC and have a comfortable lead over the Miami Dolphins.

With the Denver Broncos‘ 29-19 victory over the Las Vegas Raiders, they improved their record on the year to 7-5 and are currently comfortably in the postseason. Right now, they are the 7th seed in the AFC, and their closest competition is the 5-6 Miami Dolphins who are the 8th seed with the Colts and Bengals trailing them as the 9th and 10th seeds.

According to NFL.com, the Broncos have a 73% of making the postseason currently while the Dolphins sit at 15%, the Colts at 21%, and the Bengals at 13%.

Denver Broncos playoff odds

Looking at the FanDuel Sportsbook odds for the Broncos playoff chances, received a healthy boost after those back-to-back losses. Do the Broncos make the playoffs?

• Yes -152
• No +124

These FanDuel Sportsbook odds seem to suggest about a 50-50 chance, with a lean towards no. However, looking at all the other teams not currently 1-6 in seeding, the Broncos have the best playoff odds of any of those so we’ll say 50-50, with a lean towards yes in actuality. Looking over the AFC landscape, their playoff run comes down to two games if they take care of business where they should take care of business. The first will be coming up after the Bye week against the Colts and the other in Week 17 against the Bengals. That’s if both teams remain in the AFC playoff picture.

Overall, Denver is in an excellent position both with their current record and their upcoming schedule to be a factory in the race to the playoffs in December.

• AFC West odds: +14000
• Super Bowl odds: +5000

Looking Ahead

Let us take a look at the upcoming schedule for the Broncos and their competition for the 7th seed of the playoffs. For now, I will not include the Ravens and Chargers who are the other two wildcards, and will focus on the teams currently behind the Broncos in the AFC standings.

7th Seed: Denver Broncos (7-5)

73% chance to make the playoffs

Remaining Games: vs. Browns (MNF), BYE Week, vs. Colts, @ Chargers (TNF), @ Bengals, and vs. Chiefs

The Broncos host the three-win Cleveland Browns next Monday Night on Monday Night Football and will look to improve to an 8-5 record before their bye week. This is another game they should win and if so, will solidify their spot in the postseason even more.

After their bye week, the Broncos will play multiple games that will decide their postseason lives. The Colts are the 9th seed, the Chargers are the 5th seed, the Bengals are the 10th seed, and the Chiefs are the number one seed. The Broncos have a cushion between themselves and the Colts and Bengals, but these are still crucial games. The Chargers game could potentially be for seeding while the finale vs. the Chiefs may or may not be a must-win game for the Broncos.

I have the Broncos making the postseason and winning 10 or 11 games and being a dangerous wildcard team.

8th Seed: Miami Dolphins (5-6)

15% chance to make the playoffs

Remaining Games: @ Packers (TNF), vs. Jets, @ Texans, vs. 49ers, @ Browns, and @ Jets

The Dolphins sit at 5-6 after a dominating win over the Patriots yesterday. They’re trying to dig themselves out of a hole they got themselves into have Tua missed those games due to his concussion. They are an explosive team on offense who has faded in the second half in recent years while also struggling in colder weather games.

Next up on their schedule? A Thanksgiving night game at Lambeau Field vs. the Packers. They then host the dumpster fire Jets before heading to Houston to take on the AFC South-leading Texans. They host the 49ers before finishing up the season with road games against the Browns and Jets.

They are two games back of the Broncos in the win column and have little room for error. I think they dug themselves too far into a hole and will struggle in these cold-weather games and finish at or around a .500 record. They have a chance to get hot and push the Broncos but as of right now, I am not concerned.

9th Seed: Indianapolis Colts (5-7)

21% chance to make the playoffs

Remaining Schedule: @ Patriots, @ Broncos, vs. Titans, @ Giants, and vs. Jaguars

The Colts are another team that likely dug themselves too far into a hole to realistically make a postseason push. They are two games back from .500, have uncertainty at quarterback, and have little to no room for error moving forward.

A road game in Foxboro is never easy at this time of the year while another road game vs. the Broncos figures to be a tough matchup for them. The Titans are a scrappy team that could be looking to play spoiler and just upset the Texans yesterday. Finishing up against the Giants and Jaguars does give them a soft two-game stretch to end the season.

I’m not worried about the Colts. They have their own issues, have questions at quarterback, and face off against the Broncos in a few weeks. Could they get hot? Sure, but I am not expecting it and they’re two games back of the Broncos in the win column.

10th Seed: Cincinnati Bengals (4-7)

13% chance to make the playoffs

Remaining Games: vs. Steelers, @ Cowboys, @ Titans, vs Browns, vs. Broncos, and @ Steelers

The Bengals are the best team of the three teams behind the Broncos, but they are inconsistent and currently sit three games under .500. They do have Joe Burrown, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and other playmakers, but inconsistent play and their issues on defense have them at a 4-7 record.

They cannot afford to lose any other games and will be tested next week when they host the Steelers. They have a winnable game vs. the Cowboys before tough games vs. the scrappy Titans and Browns before hosting the Broncos in what could be a key matchup for both teams. They finish the season in Pittsburgh against a Steelers team that could be playing for postseason positioning in the finale.

I think it’s realistic to say that the Bengals are not making the playoffs. Barring them basically winning out, they are too far back and have some tough remaining games on their schedule. Their game vs. the Broncos may end up being meaningless for them when we reach that point.