NFL Playoff Picture: Broncos playoff hopes are in danger

The Broncos still control their own destiny but their playoff hopes are in danger after back to back losses.

After a wild back-and-forth game on Saturday evening, the Broncos have unfortunately lost two straight games and have failed to clinch a postseason berth. In that span, both the Dolphins and Bengals have won two straight games and now are just one game back from the Broncos. After their win over the Colts, they had a 91% chance of making the playoffs but after their back-to-back losses, they currently have just a 55% of clinching a postseason berth.

Now, the Broncos enter the final week of the regular season in a must-win game against the reigning Super Bowl Champion and current number-one seed in the AFC, the Kansas City Chiefs. Having a must-win game against a one-loss team, and one you have only beaten once since they drafted Patrick Mahomes is a pretty tall task, but things might have worked out in the Broncos’ favor. With the Chiefs locking up the number one seed with a Christmas Day defeat of the Steelers they are expected to rest most, if not all of their key starters. That means, the Broncos will play a must-win game in the regular season finale against a Chiefs team sitting Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Chris Jones, Hopkins, Pacheco, and their other key starters.

If the Broncos cannot beat the Chiefs’ backups, they don’t deserve to be in the playoffs.

Looking at the FanDuel Sportsbook odds for the Broncos’ playoff chances, the Broncos are still favored to make the playoffs despite their loss to the Bengals.

• Yes -700
• No +470

These FanDuel Sportsbook odds suggest that the Broncos are still favored to make the postseason currently. They sit at 9-7 on the year and are one win away from clinching a playoff berth. These reflect the likelihood of the Broncos clinching a postseason spot in the near future.

Overall, the Broncos control their own destiny and need a win in the regular season finale to clinch a postseason berth.

• AFC West odds: Not available due to the Chiefs clinching the AFC West
• Super Bowl odds: +6000
• Conferences Winner odds: +2800

Looking Ahead

Let us take a look at the Broncos and the two teams trailing them for a postseason spot.

7th seed: Denver Broncos (9-7)

55% chance to make the playoffs

Upcoming Schedule: vs. Chiefs

The Broncos have failed to clinch a postseason berth these past two weeks with losses to the Chargers and Bengals. Now, they enter the finale in must-win territory vs. the Chiefs. They cans still get in if they lose, but they’ll need both the Bengals and Dolphins to lose for that scenario to happen.

As I have mentioned earlier, it is expected that the Chiefs will rest their starters for this game. They have clinched the number one seed, are coming off a stretch where they played three games in 11 days, Mahomes has an injured ankle, and they have nothing to play for. This plays into the Broncos’ hands as they’ll likely be facing Carson Wentz and the Chiefs’ backups at home in this must-win game.

This is a game the Broncos SHOULD win and if they do, they’ll make the playoffs for the first time since they won Super Bowl 50.

8th Seed: Dolphins (8-8)

28% chance to make the playoffs

Remaining Schedule: at Jets

The Dolphins were down Tua this past Sunday but still came out on top over the Browns in what turned out to be an easy victory. Now, they are just one game back from the Broncos and could find themselves in the postseason if the Broncos lose to the Chiefs and they win vs. the Jets.

This will be a cold-weather road game, a situation they have struggled with in the past, but the Jets are simply not a good football team. They’ll be coming off a 40-14 loss to the Bills and have an endless amount of drama surrounding that team. They could be motivated to play spoiler to their division rivals, but I would not count on it.

They need a Broncos loss and a win over the Jets to clinch a postseason berth.

9th Seed: Bengals (8-8)

17% chance to make the playoffs

The Bengals are likely the team nobody in the AFC wants to see make the playoffs. Joe Burrow is playing at an MVP level, Ja’Marr Chase is playing his best football, and Tee Higgins is coming off a three-touchdown game vs. the Broncos.

Despite their recent surge, they need a lot of things to go their way to make the playoffs. First, they’ll need to defeat the Steelers on Saturday and then hope both the Broncos AND Dolphins lose on Sunday. If that happens, the Bengals are your 7th seed in the AFC.

The odds of this happening are low since the Broncos will likely be facing the Chiefs’ backups and the Dolphins will be playing a bad Jets football team. On top of that, they play a tough divisional rival in the Steelers in a game they MUST win.

The Bengals are hot right now but their tough start to the season may end up being too much for them to come back from. All hope is not dead though, but they’ll need some help to get in.