Some good stuff to talk and think about this week from the Denver Broncos 38-6 victory over the Atlanta Falcons.
The Denver Broncos’ six wins have come against teams with a combined record of 22-41 with the Atlanta Falcons being the only team currently with a winning record. The Broncos’ five losses have come against teams with a combined record of 36-15. Translation, the Broncos are beating the teams that they should and losing to the teams that are “better” than they at least were at the time.
I have no doubt that if the Broncos were to play the Seattle Seahawks and the Pittsburgh Steelers right now that they would beat both teams. The Broncos would have beaten the Kansas City Chiefs. The losses to the Los Angeles Chargers and Baltimore Ravens were pretty resounding, particularly if you recall that the Chargers were up 23-0 on the road before the Broncos scored 16 points in the final ten minutes of the game. The offense that the Broncos had in that game (the sixth game of the season) is miles from the way that the offense is playing right now.
| # | Quarter | Time | LOS | Plays | Length | Net Yds | Result |
| 1 | 1 | 15:00 | DEN 30 | 3 | 1:23 | 2 | Interception |
| 2 | 1 | 9:26 | DEN 34 | 3 | 1:34 | 4 | Punt |
| 3 | 1 | 4:59 | DEN 30 | 6 | 3:09 | 15 | Punt |
| 4 | 2 | 6:21 | DEN 30 | 5 | 1:49 | 26 | Fumble |
| 5 | 2 | 1:00 | DEN 30 | 3 | 0:52 | -2 | Punt |
| 6 | 3 | 10:59 | DEN 18 | 7 | 3:26 | 28 | Punt |
| 7 | 3 | 2:35 | DEN 30 | 3 | 1:51 | -10 | Punt |
| 8 | 4 | 14:09 | DEN 5 | 8 | 4:03 | 95 | Touchdown |
| 9 | 4 | 8:25 | DEN 36 | 8 | 3:03 | 64 | Touchdown |
| 10 | 4 | 2:26 | DEN 4 | 8 | 1:27 | 74 | Field Goal |
The Bronco offense had four three-and-outs that game and the longest offensive drive before the fourth quarter gained 28 yards. Of course the injury-depleted Falcon defense is not comparable to the Charger D, but many of the offensive woes that game for the Broncos were self-inflicted. The Bronco offense had four offensive penalties and a handful of drops.
In the win over the Falcons the Broncos only had two three-and-outs and one of them was near the end of the game when Jarrett Stidham was in at QB and the team was just running to kill the clock.
The Bronco offense will get two more chances against good/great defenses with games on the road against the #1 scoring D right now, the Chargers, and at home at the #8 scoring D the Chiefs. The rest of the schedule is facing some bad defenses (see below)
| Rk | Tm | G | PA | PPG | Yds | Ply | Y/P |
| 1 | Los Angeles Chargers | 10 | 145 | 14.5 | 3171 | 609 | 5.21 |
| 2 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 10 | 162 | 16.2 | 3053 | 585 | 5.22 |
| 3 | Denver Broncos | 11 | 183 | 16.6 | 3183 | 685 | 4.65 |
| 4 | Minnesota Vikings | 10 | 170 | 17.0 | 3092 | 612 | 5.05 |
| 5 | Detroit Lions | 10 | 177 | 17.7 | 3275 | 614 | 5.33 |
| 6 | Philadelphia Eagles | 10 | 179 | 17.9 | 2731 | 581 | 4.70 |
| 7 | Chicago Bears | 10 | 187 | 18.7 | 3277 | 585 | 5.60 |
| 8 | Kansas City Chiefs | 10 | 191 | 19.1 | 2975 | 585 | 5.09 |
| 9 | Buffalo Bills | 11 | 214 | 19.5 | 3620 | 670 | 5.40 |
| 10 | Green Bay Packers | 10 | 213 | 21.3 | 3271 | 612 | 5.34 |
| 11 | Arizona Cardinals | 10 | 220 | 22.0 | 3460 | 631 | 5.48 |
| 12 | New York Jets | 11 | 242 | 22.0 | 3355 | 688 | 4.88 |
| 13 | Washington Commanders | 11 | 243 | 22.1 | 3683 | 661 | 5.57 |
| 14 | Miami Dolphins | 10 | 221 | 22.1 | 3080 | 584 | 5.27 |
| 15 | San Francisco 49ers | 10 | 222 | 22.2 | 3022 | 594 | 5.09 |
| 16 | New York Giants | 10 | 222 | 22.2 | 3313 | 590 | 5.62 |
| 17 | New England Patriots | 11 | 248 | 22.5 | 3797 | 680 | 5.58 |
| 18 | Houston Texans | 10 | 226 | 22.6 | 2880 | 585 | 4.92 |
| 19 | Indianapolis Colts | 11 | 250 | 22.7 | 4120 | 736 | 5.60 |
| 20 | New Orleans Saints | 11 | 260 | 23.6 | 4299 | 709 | 6.06 |
| 21 | Seattle Seahawks | 10 | 238 | 23.8 | 3495 | 638 | 5.48 |
| 22 | Los Angeles Rams | 10 | 239 | 23.9 | 3506 | 625 | 5.61 |
| 23 | Baltimore Ravens | 11 | 271 | 24.6 | 3982 | 719 | 5.54 |
| 24 | Cleveland Browns | 10 | 248 | 24.8 | 3427 | 595 | 5.76 |
| 25 | Atlanta Falcons | 11 | 274 | 24.9 | 3928 | 703 | 5.59 |
| 26 | Tennessee Titans | 10 | 263 | 26.3 | 2780 | 578 | 4.81 |
| 27 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 10 | 266 | 26.6 | 3893 | 664 | 5.86 |
| 28 | Cincinnati Bengals | 11 | 296 | 26.9 | 3910 | 717 | 5.45 |
| 29 | Las Vegas Raiders | 10 | 285 | 28.5 | 3278 | 619 | 5.30 |
| 30 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 11 | 316 | 28.7 | 4551 | 740 | 6.15 |
| 31 | Dallas Cowboys | 9 | 259 | 28.8 | 3266 | 559 | 5.84 |
| 32 | Carolina Panthers | 10 | 310 | 31.0 | 3869 | 668 | 5.79 |
The Indianapolis Colts have the best of the four bad defenses and they are currently 19th. The Cleveland Browns are 24th, the Cincinnati Bengals are 28th, and the Las Vegas Raiders are 29th.
The maturation of the Bronco offense has been due in large part to the growth of Bo Nix as an NFL QB. Bo is now tied in the minds of many with Jayden Daniels in the race for offensive rookie of the year. The Broncos have not had an OROY since 2002 with Clinton Portis. The Broncos only other OROY was Mike Anderson two seasons before.
OROY race after most of week 11. Colormap – Bo Nix is rising and Jayden Daniels is fading pic.twitter.com/oI6cyN0X3k
— Joe Mahoney (@ndjomo76) November 18, 2024
With 19 total touchdowns Nix has opened up a five TD lead on Daniels. Don’t forget about the Nix receiving TD against the Ravens. 14 passing, 4 rushing and 1 receiving. At Nix current pace he should finish with 30 total TDs on the season. That task is made easier by facing four weak defenses in his final six games.
Nix also only has one turnover-worthy play in his last eight games according to PFF.
Bo Nix has only 1 Turnover Worthy Play in his last 8 games per @PFF
— Mike Renner (@mikerenner_) November 18, 2024
Nix has been quite good at avoiding pressure so far this season as well as avoiding sacks. He has the sixth lowest dumb sack rate (dumb sack rate doesn’t include dropbacks that end in scrambles) at 4.80%. Jordan Love, Derek Carr, Josh Allen, Andy Dalton (?!?) and Lamar Jackson all have lower dumb sack rates. Among QBs who are still playing this season, Will Levis has the worst sack rate at 13.1%. You have to go back to 2020 to find a Bronco QB that finished a season with a sack rate under five percent. That was Drew Lock, the man who got passed over the starting QB job in NY in favor of Danny Tommy DeVito, an undrafted player out of Syracuse (and Illinois).
Back to the defense, the Bronco defense is currently 3rd in ppg allowed and is still leading the league in YPP at 4.65 although the Eagles have closed that gap. They are currently #2 at 4.70. Only five teams are allowing fewer than five yards per play. The Jaguars are one of only two NFL teams allowing more than six at 6.15. The Saints are the other at 6.06.
The Bronco defense now has 39 sacks in 11 games meaning that they are getting 3.5 per game. With six games remaining that means that the D is on pace to finish the season with 60 sacks. That would be a franchise record since the 1984 Broncos had 57. The Broncos have not had a player get double digit sacks since both Von Miller and Bradley Chubb did it in Chubb’s rookie season of 2018. Former 64th overall pick, Nik Bonitto, now has 9.0 sacks and will most likely, barring injury (knock on wood), get double digits in sacks. The 2018 Broncos finished the season with 44 sacks. The 2024 Broncos could eclipse that next game against the Raiders.
It’s also possible that both Bronco edge starters could finish with double digits in sacks. Jonathon Cooper has 6.5, so it’s possible that he could get 3.5 more sacks in the final six regular season games.
The Bronco OL is currently 6th best in pressure rate allowed at 16.7%. The Raiders, Browns and Colts are all in the bottom third in terms of pressure allowed. The Bronco defense is currently fifth in pressure rate at 25.9% but is currently second in blitz rate at at 32.8%. The Vikings are the only team that blitzes more while the Cowboys, Vikings, Texans and Bears all generate pressure at a higher rate than the Broncos according to Pro-football-reference.