How did the Bronco run game compare to the rest of the league in terms of avoiding stuffed runs and breaking long runs?
According to ESPN’s run block win rate, the Denver Broncos had the best run blocking offensive line in the NFL.
Our pass rush win rate metric tells us how often a pass rusher is able to beat his block within 2.5 seconds. Likewise, our pass block win rate metric conveys the rate linemen can sustain their blocks for 2.5 seconds or longer.
In run stop win rate, a defender can earn a win by doing any of the following: beating his blocker so he’s in better position to stop the runner; disrupting the pocket or running lane by pushing his blocker backward; containing the runner such that he must adjust his running lane; or recording a tackle within 3 yards of the line of scrimmage. If a defender earns a run stop win, his blocker earns a loss — and vice versa.
So the Bronco OL was winning on 75% of their run blocks (win defined above), and yet the run game was mostly pedestrian with the Broncos coming in 21st in yards per carry (not removing kneeldowns) and 23rd in rushing TDs. I wanted to look deeper into the state of the Bronco run game, so that is this.
We should first note how much of a big part Bo Nix played in the Bronco run game. Bo had 78 actual runs with 50 of those being scrambles and 28 of those as designed runs. You can see how his numbers compare to other QBs below
His 41 rushing first downs was fifth among starting QBs with only Jalen Hurts, Jayden Daniels, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson getting more in 2024. Those four are literally the who’s who is QB who scare defensive coordinators as runners. I also found it interesting that Patrick Mahomes was only used on TWO designed runs in the 2024, so 36 of his 38 actual runs come on scrambles. Similarly, Bryce Young was only used on one designed run. On the other end of the spectrum you have Hurts with 90 and Jackson with 83 designed runs.
I also found it interesting that Matthew Stafford only scrambled three times, but was used on 12 designed runs (probably QB sneaks). It should be noted that most QBs with a host of sneaks and few scrambles had low actual YPC values.
Ok, so we have established that neither the OL nor Bo Nix was the problem in the Bronco run game in 2024, it stands to reason that it was the running backs (unless you want to blame the play-callers). So let’s see how the RBs did since most of our actual runs (368) were by RBs. Marvin Mims had 13 carries and Troy Franklin had two.
The league average in YPC was 4.44 (4.60 if you remove kneel-downs).
There were 14687 rushing attempts in the 2024 NFL reg szn and 407 of those were kneeldowns – 2.8%
Yet the NFL still counts those as rushes that lost a total of 453 yards
The NFL average per carry was 4.44 yards, but if you remove the kneeldowns it goes up to 4.60— Joe Mahoney (@ndjomo76) January 27, 2025
The Broncos runners did a good job of avoiding getting stuffed (a stuffed run is a run that gains two or fewer yards and does not convert a first down or a score). The Broncos were 13th in avoiding stuffed runs (39.9% stuffed rate). The Panthers (surprisingly) had the lowest stuffed rate in the league, slightly ahead of the Ravens, who I expected to be leading the league in this. The Texans were the worst at 47.7% (and still Joe Mixon somehow made the Pro Bowl).
In terms of long runs the Broncos 7.8% value for runs that gained 10 yards or more was average. The Cardinals led the league with a value of 11.7% while the Chiefs were dead last at 3.8%. While the Broncos were average on runs of 10 or more, they were one of the worst in the league on runs of 20 or more with only 4 (0.87%). The Rams and Chiefs were tied for the worst at 0.44%. Thanks to Tyler Badie’s 43 yard run, the Broncos did not finish the season with zero runs of 30 or more yards like the Cowboys and Saints.
The takeaway from this, is that having ball-carriers who can get chunk plays in the running game is a huge benefit to the offense (just ask the Eagles). The Broncos did not have that in 2024 and it has been some time since they had that (Phillip Lindsay as a rookie is probably the last big play RB that played for the Broncos). Lindsay had eight runs of 20 or more as a rookie in 2018 on 192 carries – or twice what the Broncos had on 461 carries in 2024.
Javonte Williams as a rookie had six runs of 20 or more on 203 carries.
Runs of more than 10-20 yards can sometimes be the result of great blocking or play-design, but most of the time they result for the RB either making a defender miss or breaking a tackle at the second level. The Bronco RBs were extremely limited in both respects in 2024. Finding a backs who can make things happen at the second level is paramount in the draft.