Early 2023-24 NBA MVP Favorites

Jun 12, 2023; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic (15) holds his daughter as he celebrates winning the Bill Russell NBA Finals MVP Award after the Nuggets won the 2023 NBA Championship against the Miami Heat at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

In the doldrums of summer, one thing remains clear heading into the 2023-24 NBA season: Nikola Jokic is the NBA MVP favorite. The two-time MVP, Finals MVP, and now ESPY winner shined on the national stage. Jokic rose above the pressure and broke records on a seemingly nightly basis during the Denver Nuggets’ playoff run. The MVP for next season is his to lose, but what will it take to unseat him? Especially after a summer that saw his stock surge globally, how have voters’ opinions changed now that Joker has a title? Who, if anyone, has a better shot to take the home award next year?

Beyond other players surging, what factors could cost Jokic his third MVP in four years? Could winning the Finals lead to a hangover that proves challenging to remain sharp? Could injury or a media narrative plague Jokic enough to unseat him? Undoubtedly a plateau in his performance is coming, but will it happen this year, or is Jokic still on the rise? Or could someone have such an outstanding year that they snatch the trophy from him?

What Could Lose Jokic the Award?

Finals Hangover

With the character that Jokic has, it’s unlikely that a Finals hangover will cost him the MVP. But we have seen this before with past champions. Jokic doesn’t care about accolades, trophies, or awards. He wants to play the best basketball he can and get home to Serbia to race his horses. He could have a Finals hangover as he heads into the 2023-24 season. But his character means he will have a different championship hangover than someone who values their worth from winning trophies. He’ll be fresh off a summer of rafting, horse racing, and laying by the pool, ready to take over the league again humbly. This is a possibility but an unlikely reason why Jokic might lose the award. However, many players reach the pinnacle and regress the following year because of entitlement or laziness. That isn’t Jokic.

Injury

Jokic rarely misses a game. Joel Embiid seems to miss more time, but last year the fear of voters to give him a third MVP in as many years meant the next in line was primed to win, even if he is injury prone. It would be a shame to see one of the best centers miss time due to injury. But if one thing were to cost Jokic the MVP, it would be an injury causing him to miss a significant amount of time.

Jokic missed a few games late in the season due to a calf injury. It’s hard to say if he was trolling Embiid for ducking him in Denver or if he was hurt. Regardless, it didn’t seem to affect him in the playoffs. He is built like a Clydesdale who powers through anything and can play whenever needed. His durability should have him at the top of most NBA MVP favorite lists.

National Media Narrative

Although the opposite is likely to happen now that the Nuggets have won it all, we have to mention the power of the national media narrative. Arguably, Kendrick Perkins was partially responsible for costing Jokic his third MVP. The narrative Perkins pushed and fed to a significant amount of uneducated MVP voters edged Embiid over the top. Perkins abruptly apologized after the Finals and called himself out and the national media for overlooking what Denver and Jokic were doing. But by most advanced metrics, Jokic should have won the award last year as well.

Regardless, the national media wields a heavy stick. They can sway narratives with a catchy line or powerful monologue. They can influence voters with an article or tweet. And if, for some reason, Jokic has an injury, a finals hangover, or a poor season – the mainstream media has every tool they need to shift the vote to someone else.

Solid but Underwhelming Season

The most likely reason for Jokic to lose his third MVP is having a solid but underwhelming season. He isn’t flashy. He isn’t sexy. He’s a low-key dominant player that will need to prove his worth on the stat lines and titles, which he seems to have no trouble doing. But at some point, Jokic will hit a ceiling with points, rebounds, and assists. Then he will regress. Nuggets fans are hopeful this apex is several years away, but it will come, and when it does, the chances of Jokic winning future MVPs are doubtful.

Do Voters See Jokić as the NBA MVP Favorite?

This is similar to the Oakland Athletics of the early 2000s. Someone comes along that plays or sees the game differently. At first, there is ignorance, then writing them off, followed by avoidance, and eventually begrudgingly acceptance. After enough time passes, the rest of the league is forced to change how they do things.

Every GM from coast to coast is looking for a center that can do it all right now. They are hard to find, but the days of centers racking up only points and solid rebounding numbers are over. Jokic has shown that centers must have excellent court vision, make timely passes, and have a high field goal percentage, even from three. It might take a few years, but more and more MVP voters and league executives will see Jokic as a trailblazer rather than a boring player with good numbers. The last time we saw this game-changing type of play was Stephen Curry with the three-ball, and now the game is entirely different.

Jokić and RAPTOR

A recent study by FiveThirtyEight and the somewhat controversial RAPTOR player ratings has Jokic on his own planet. Not only did he have the highest win above replacement (WAR) in 2022-23 at 25.9, but according to RAPTOR, he had nearly double the WAR of second-place Embiid at 14.2. This number alone should put him poised as the NBA MVP favorite next year, should he maintain it.

Think what you want about RAPTOR and the conclusions it draws, but it shows that Jokic is a very different player than anyone else who has played the game before. This game-changing prowess, combined with a title, will buy him some votes if one of the above scenarios doesn’t happen in the 2023-24 season. But with any disruptor, there is a time-delayed curve to adopt and accept the new changes, and we’re on the leading edge of that curve with the Nuggets just achieving their first title.

Who Could Unseat Jokic?

Another scenario, which is probably the most likely, is another player overtakes Jokic. Currently, Las Vegas and some trusted AI Sports Predictions models have Jokic as the favorite to take home the MVP (+400) in 2023-24. This isn’t a surprise, but who else is in the hunt?

#2 – Giannis Antetokounmpo

Giannis Antetokounmpo is a standout player due to his extraordinary athleticism, versatility, and skill set. He excels as a scorer, showcasing a diverse offensive arsenal with powerful dunks, layups, and improved shooting from mid-range and beyond the arc. His defensive prowess is equally impressive, as he can guard multiple positions, block shots, and disrupt passing lanes. Rebounding is another area where Antetokounmpo shines, dominating the boards on both ends of the court. His relentless work ethic and commitment to improvement set him apart, constantly striving to refine his game. As a leader, he inspires teammates with his competitive spirit and determination. And with two MVP titles already under his belt, we have him as the second most likely to win the 2023-24 MVP.

#3 – Luka Doncic

Luka Doncic is a remarkable player due to his exceptional basketball IQ, outstanding skills, and poise on the court. Despite his young age, his maturity and court vision are beyond his years. He possesses incredible playmaking abilities, making him a proficient passer who can find teammates with pinpoint accuracy. Doncic’s scoring prowess is also impressive, with a diverse scoring repertoire that includes three-point shooting, crafty drives to the basket, and a soft touch around the rim.

His ball-handling skills allow him to create space and navigate through defenses effortlessly. Moreover, Doncic’s clutch performances under pressure have earned him a reputation as a reliable go-to player in critical moments. Beyond his offensive talents, he is a savvy defender who understands positioning and utilizes his basketball instincts effectively. A Doncic MVP campaign is soon coming.

#4 – Jayson Tatum

Jayson Tatum is a highly skilled and versatile player known for his scoring prowess and defensive capabilities. His offensive repertoire includes a smooth jump shot, the ability to attack the rim, and skillful footwork. Tatum’s scoring consistency and clutch performances make him a go-to option for his team. Additionally, he has developed into a solid defender, using his length and quickness to disrupt opponents. Despite his young age, Tatum exhibits maturity and leadership on the court, contributing to his reputation as one of the rising stars in the NBA.

#5 – Joel Embiid

Embiid shows a dominant presence on both ends of the court. He possesses exceptional skills as a scorer and a shot-blocker. Offensively, he can score from inside the paint with an array of post moves and has extended his range to become a threat from beyond the three-point line. Defensively, he is a rim protector and an adept shot-blocker. His combination of size, skill, and athleticism allows him to impact the game in multiple ways. Additionally, Embiid’s competitive spirit and leadership qualities make him a valuable asset to his team, the Philadelphia 76ers.

Why is Embiid number five on the list? This past season uncovered biases among voters that came back to bite them. It wasn’t a good look with Jokic and the Nuggets winning the title and Philadelphia bowing out before the Conference Finals. Additionally, it’s possible the same voter fatigue that lost Jokic the award this year will likely plague Embiid next year, and it’s unlikely he’ll have enough of a standout season to go back-to-back. But he certainly makes the list, all-be-it as a longer shot.

#6 – Devin Booker

Devin Booker is known for his exceptional scoring ability and offensive versatility. He has a smooth shooting stroke and can score from anywhere on the court, making him a dangerous threat inside and outside the three-point line. Booker’s ability to create shots and excel in isolation shows his offensive prowess. Additionally, he has improved as a playmaker, contributing to his team’s success with well-timed passes and court vision. Despite his young age, Booker displays maturity and composure in high-pressure situations, solidifying his reputation as one of the league’s premier scoring talents.

#7 – Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is an impressive player due to his well-rounded skills and basketball IQ. He is a crafty scorer with an array of offensive moves, capable of finishing at the rim with finesse and shooting from mid-range and beyond the arc. Gilgeous-Alexander’s playmaking ability allows him to create opportunities for his teammates, making him a valuable facilitator on the court. Defensively, he is a solid on-ball defender and has shown the ability to generate steals. His poise, maturity on the court, and constant improvement make him a promising young talent with the potential for a bright future in the NBA.

The NBA MVP Favorite

The tipoff for the 2023-24 campaign is just three months away. There is time for each of these players to work on the one or two elements of their game that can push them over the top. It’s arguably Jokic’s to lose. Barring an unforeseen injury or lackluster year, he will be tough to unseat as the NBA MVP favorite. Especially if the Nuggets are in the top two in the West going into the playoffs. But there is a wealth of talent ready and waiting to overtake the award from Jokic. Something as simple as voter fatigue or the national narrative can easily sway the title to one of these other players. Or someone may earn it outright, which would be a welcome surprise.

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