Often, the battle between the fourth and the fifth seeds in the NBA playoffs are the most interesting first-round matchup. That is the case here with the Clippers/Nuggets series. The first two games came down to the wire, and in the third, the Clippers routed the Nuggets. If we look at history, there is an indication that the Clippers will beat the Nuggets. And it is all connected with Nikola Jokic.
One Stat That Gives Clippers Edge Over Nuggets
The Joker has been one of the two best players in the league for the past five years. While he might not win the regular season MVP this year, his stats are absurd. He has continued that statistical dominance in the playoffs.
Yet at the same time, there is one stat that shows how the Clippers/Nuggets series will end according to recent history. Throughout his career, Jokic has never beaten a 50-win team in the playoffs. This year, the Clippers won exactly 50 games. They won their 50th game to end the season with a win over the Golden State Warriors.
Joker’s Playoff History Haunts the Nuggets
To be fair, Jokic was the main reason that the Nuggets won their only championship title in 2023. But at the same time, the three-time MVP has never beaten a great team in the playoffs. Let’s take a look at his playoff history.
- In the 2019 playoffs, the Nuggets were the second seed with 54 wins. They beat the San Antonio Spurs in the first round but lost to the Portland Trail Blazers in the second round. The Blazers won 53 games that season, one fewer than the Nuggets.
- In the 2020 playoffs, or the bubble, the Nuggets made it to the Conference Finals. On their way there, they beat the Jazz and Clippers in seven games. In the Western Conference Finals, they fell to the Los Angeles Lakers, the leading team in the conference with 52 wins.
- We can ignore the 2021 playoffs because they lost in the second round to a 42-win Portland Trail Blazers team.
- In the 2022 playoffs, they lost in the first round to the Golden State Warriors, a team that won 53 games in the regular season.
- On their way to the 2023 title, the Nuggets beat teams that won 42, 45, 43, and 44 games.
- In the 2024 playoffs, Denver lost in seven games to the Timberwolves, a team that won 56 games, one fewer than the Nuggets.
If history tells us something, Jokic and the Nuggets have yet to beat a team in the playoffs with at least 50 wins. The Clippers won the last game of the season to get a better seeding, but they also made it to the 50-win mark, a kryptonite for Jokic and the Nuggets.
Now there is a caveat that needs to be mentioned. The 2019-20 season wasn’t 82 games due to the COVID shutdown. In the bubble, Denver defeated the Jazz (44-28) and Clippers (49-23). Prorated to 82 games, those teams have 50 and 56 wins respectively.
How Can the Nuggets Bounce Back?
While we can judge Jokic, he has been sensational again in the Clippers/Nuggets series. In Game 3, he had 23 points, 13 rebounds, and 13 assists. Yet, his team lost by 34 points. The Nuggets have often relied on their strong starting five. To win this series though, they will have to get more off their bench.
To be fair, the Nuggets bench outscored the Clippers bench in the first two games. But in Game 3 in Los Angeles, the Nuggets bench was nowhere to be found. Denver’s bench was outscored 31-6.
The bad news for the Nuggets is their bench has been a weakness all season. Ever since they ler quality veterans walk in free agency and decided to rely on their young players, the Nuggets cannot get much from their bench. This might be another series in which Jokic loses to a 50-win team.
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