Some teams open games poorly, and then there are the Denver Nuggets, whose abysmal first-quarter defense is causing them to play catch-up nearly every game. Despite being third in the NBA in first-quarter scoring, they also give up the most points in the opening 12 minutes. They allow their opponents to score a league-most 31.3 points per game in the first period. Their miserable starts set themselves on the wrong foot, making it more difficult to pull out wins.
The First Quarter is Killing the Denver Nuggets
Poor Defensive Effort
By quarter, the Nuggets are 30th, 30th, 8th and 10th in opponent points scored. They are dead last for opponents’ scoring in both the first and second quarters. Starting games with poor defense forces them into bad situations. Their defense has also had no adjustments this season. For a championship-hopeful team, righting their flaws as the season goes on is expected. Yet Denver has not followed that blueprint. In the last 10 games, their opponents averaged 32.4 points in the first quarter. Even worse, they give up 36 points in their most recent five games in the first.
With Nikola Jokić in the running for his fourth MVP, it doesn’t help that his defense has been subpar this season. His interior defense has been awful, as he consistently allows open lanes to the rim. Jokić isn’t the only one to blame, as three Nuggets are in the bottom 10 of DFG% (defended field goal percentage) in the first quarter. The Nuggets must sharpen their defensive effort to get off to better starts. If they can climb into the top 20 for opponents’ points in the first quarter, they will likely win more games by a greater margin.
Forcing a Heavier Workload to Starters
Denver already depends on their first unit more than most teams, as their four healthy starters are all in the top 40 in minutes per game. That includes Jokić and Jamal Murray, who are fifth and sixth in minutes per game. With them both nearly averaging 37 per game, it could mean more wear on them later in the season. The starters haven’t been great on defense but are a powerhouse offensively.
Of the 401 NBA lineups that have played more than five games together, the Nuggets have three combinations that place first, sixth and tenth in average points. Head coach Michael Malone has figured out lineups that mesh well offensively. All three of those lineups have a net rating of 3.3 or higher. The common theme between the three lineups is the lethal offensive trio of Jokić, Murray and Michael Porter Jr.
The problem with that trio is defensive liabilities. Despite boasting a 122.0 offensive rating in the first quarter, their defensive rating is 127.5. What is more shocking is their net rating went from -5.5 in the first quarter to a staggering 21.8 throughout the second half. They are capable defensively and can stop teams but have not shown the ability to in the first quarter. The team needs the trio to play with effort throughout 48 minutes, not just the second half.
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