We’ve now entered the Top 10!
We’re now in the top ten of the mid-season 2024 Purple Row Prospects (PuRPs) list. Previously we had PuRPs 30-26, 25-21, 20-16 and 15-11. As a reminder, in this edition of the PuRPs poll, 35 ballots were cast, with 30 points granted for a first place vote, 29 for second, etc.
For each player on the PuRPs list, I’ll include a link to individual stats and contract status (via Baseball-Reference), PuRPs voting stats, a note on the 2024 season to date, and a scouting report from a national prospect writer where possible. For what it’s worth, I’ll also include where I put each player on my personal ballot. All ages are as of the date the article is posted.
10. Carson Palmquist (712 points, 35 ballots) — Preseason Ranking: 18 — High Ballot 5, Mode Ballot 12
How did he enter the organization?
2022 3rd Round, University of Miami
Why did he make the PuRPs list?
The 23-year-old lefty has a low, funky arm slot and has utility as both a starter and reliever. The 6’3” pitcher has largely flown under the radar as a prospect — he wasn’t highly scouted out of high school, going undrafted (despite not allowing a single earned run during his junior and senior seasons). In his first two years at Miami, Palmquist was dominant in the bullpen, then he transitioned to the rotation in 2022 and was quite good at that too (2.89 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 12.6 K/9 rate, and 3.4 BB/9 rate). During his three college seasons, Palmquist struck out over 36% of the batters he faced while walking fewer than 8%.
From a stuff perspective, Palmquist added a change-up to his fastball/slider portfolio once he joined the starting rotation, all coming from that low lefty arm slot. It’s a profile reminiscent of Kyle Freeland, as many noted at the time he was picked 88th overall in 2022 by the Rockies, receiving a $775k bonus that was about $62k over slot.
Palmquist’s first full season assignment was to High-A Spokane. Palmquist showed well, throwing 70 innings across 15 starts with a 3.73 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 13.6 K/9 rate, and 3.6 BB/9 rate. His 106 strikeouts was tied for eighth in the league and his K/9 rate led the circuit for anyone with 40 or more innings pitched. The Rockies rewarded that performance with a promotion to Double-A Hartford in late August, where Palmquist was 2.4 years younger than average. Palmquist finished the season with 22 1⁄3 innings across four starts, three of them of the quality variety, striking out 28 with a 4.43 ERA (3.79 xFIP).
This year, Palmquist headed back to Hartford, where he was still 1.5 years younger than league average. The lefty put up strong numbers, carving through the Eastern League with a 3.17 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 12.4 K/9 rate, and 3.6 BB/9 rate in 82 1⁄3 innings across 18 starts — including five quality starts.
Earlier this month, Palmquist got a promotion to Triple-A Albuquerque, where he faces some of the toughest environments for a pitcher in minor league baseball. Though his 4.95 ERA in 20 innings over four starts with Albuquerque is decent for the league, Palmquist is striking out fewer hitters (7.6 K/9 rate) and walking more (6.3 BB/9, 1.65 WHIP), leading to a higher 6.30 xFIP. That written, Palmquist’s two most recent starts have both been strong efforts where he pitched more than five innings and allowed one run each time.
Here’s some highlights of Palmquist’s Hartford-record 13-strikeout game on July 5th:
What do the scouts say?
MLB.com ranks Palmquist 15th in the system as a 45 FV player, highlighted by a 55 slider:
While Palmquist is never going to light up a radar gun, his combination of funkiness, deception and ability to pitch to both sides of the plate has allowed him to be an uncomfortable at-bat for both lefties and righties, leading to a 13.1 strikeout per nine rate in 2023. His fastball averages around 90 mph and tops out at 95, but it misses bats because it comes from a low, almost sidearm slot. His mid-70s sweeping slider is also a big swing-and-miss pitch, and his low-80s changeup has been an effective third offering.
Despite the funk and the deception, Palmquist tends to be around the plate, with some thinking he might have better than average control when all is said and done. He has conviction in all his pitches and loves to pitch inside with a fierce competitive streak. One evaluator did say he’s built like a fungo and there are concerns about durability in a starting role, but he’ll continue to do that for now even if he ultimately ends up in a bullpen.
Fangraphs lists Palmquist as a 40 FV player, 22nd in the system:
A sidearm lefty starter with a Clay Rapada-esque delivery, Palmquist’s repertoire depth should enable him to be more than just a lefty specialist even though that’s what he looks like at first glance. He is capable of missing bats with all three of his pitches, though his ability to do so in-zone is limited to his fastball. Palmquist struggles to command his heater to his glove side, which makes it tough to set up his slider as a chase pitch. Still, his level of funk, as well as his mechanical looseness, athleticism, and repertoire depth look like they could work through a lineup a couple of times, especially if Palmquist uses a more even mix of pitches than he did in college when he was fastball-heavy. He had success in 2023 at a combination of High- and Double-A; Palmquist kept his walk rate below 10% at both stops and struck out more than a batter per inning across just over 90 innings. In 2024, he’s begun the year at Hartford with more early-count sliders against lefty batters, but otherwise he looks the same. This guy is a stable mid-staff pitching prospect whose relatively narrow range of potential outcomes span fifth starter/swingman/long reliever.
When’s he going to get to the Rockies and how good will he be once he’s there?
Much like fellow PuRP Michael Prosecky (No. 22), the Rockies gave Palmquist a chance to start after relieving in college and have been rewarded with strong performances all the way up to Triple-A in just two years. With Palmquist, even if starting doesn’t work out, the left-hander has already proven he can thrive as a reliever.
Palmquist doesn’t have to be added to the 40-man roster until after 2025, but at the rate he’s going, he could well make his Major League debut late this season. If not, he’ll certainly be a rotation option for the Rockies next spring. The proven performance in the upper minors, combined with the scouting reports and pedigree led me to rank Palmquist 14th on my list as a 45 FV player.
★ ★ ★
9. Drew Romo (724 points, 35 ballots) — Preseason Ranking: 7 — High Ballot 3, Mode Ballot 9, 10
How did he enter the organization?
2020 Competitive Balance Round A, The Woodlands HS (TX)
Why did he make the PuRPs list?
In my opinion, Romo is Colorado’s catcher of the future, full stop. The 6’1”, 205-pound backstop, who turns 23 later this week, is also the catcher of the present after the Rockies released incumbent Elias Diaz and elevated Romo to MLB. Though Romo has fallen off the back of the top 100 prospect lists he was on before 2023, I’m still a believer he’s a primary MLB catcher with a strong floor as an above-average defender.
Romo was the first catcher the Rockies had drafted in the top 100 picks since 1998 (he was the highest catcher the franchise has ever picked at 35th overall in 2020, signing for a slot $2.1 million bonus). He was also a member of quite possibly the riskiest prospect demographic out there: a high school catcher who is also a switch-hitter to boot.
Romo played mostly at Double-A Hartford in 2023, where he was 2.7 years younger than league average. Romo started off the season cold with a .536 OPS in April and a .590 OPS in May, but he turned it around after that, compiling a .891 OPS in the second half of the season in Hartford. In all with Hartford, Romo had a .254/.313/.440 line with 13 homers among his 33 extra-base hits and six steals (103 wRC+). He cratered hitting from the right-handed side against lefties, managing only a .468 OPS vs. a .836 OPS batting left-handed.
It’s still important to remember Romo’s positional utility and youth as well in this discussion — all but 10 of his PA in 2023 came against pitchers who were younger than him. Romo didn’t sparkle behind the plate, despite his reputation. He committed a stunning 14 errors in 78 Double-A games with eight passed balls, throwing out 20% of runners attempting a steal. In all, you’d prefer a few more walks, a bit more power, and cleaner stats behind the plate, but Romo held his own in Double-A in 2023.
Romo earned a late-season cameo promotion to Triple-A Albuquerque, where he went 6-for-17 with a triple and double in four games (123 wRC+). He was then selected for the Arizona Fall League, where Romo caught five of the 11 games he appeared in. Over 48 PA, Romo had a walk-heavy .231/.375/.359 line in the AFL.
This year, Romo was assigned to Albuquerque, where he was 4.8 years younger than league average, as the primary catcher. The PCL offensive boost no doubt helped Romo to a .297/.339/.499 line in 370 PA with 14 HR among his 37 XBH, but it is still a 103 wRC+ for a 22-year-old catcher in Triple-A. Also of note is that Romo saw nearly even production from each side of the plate offensively (.817 OPS hitting lefty, .820 righty). He struck out in only 18% of PA but walked in only 4% of them. Behind the plate, Romo committed two errors and allowed 11 passed balls while throwing out 29% of runners in 60 games.
Since his call-up, Romo is 3-for-19 with nine strikeouts, but there’s certainly time for him to settle in given Colorado’s lost season.
Here’s some video on Romo hitting (from the left side) in the AFL courtesy of Baseball America, including some slo-mo looks at the swing:
In addition, here are some of Romo’s highlights from 2023.
What do the scouts say?
Romo is ranked ninth in the system by MLB.com as a 45 FV player, with plus grades on the arm and defense:
[Romo is] an aggressive hitter who doesn’t strike out much, but he also doesn’t walk a ton and his knack for contact has led him to chase out of the zone too much. The power showed up a little more, and flipping his left-right splits from 2022, he did nearly all of his damage left-handed last year.
Romo entered pro ball with the reputation of being an outstanding defensive backstop and that still hasn’t changed. The next step of his development will be to work on game planning and game calling. He has plus arm strength but struggled with accuracy in 2023, so he went through a throwing program to help him get more consistent with his release, as well as putting work in so he can maintain arm strength through a full season. Overall, he seems back on track, and if the offensive adjustments stick, he still has the ingredients for becoming a big league regular behind the plate.
Fangraphs, who had previously put Romo on their pre-season 2023 top 100 list, dropped him down to a 40 FV player in April, 25th in the org:
Romo hasn’t looked quite himself on defense for the last couple of seasons, as he allowed nearly 100 stolen bases in 2023 at an 80% success rate. He’s still a fine receiver and his pop times so far in 2024 have been hovering around average even though he’s again allowing stolen bases at a high rate. Romo looked like a potential impact primary catcher upon his entry into pro ball, and even as cracks in his offensive output (less power than I expected based on his high school look) began to show, Romo’s feel for contact and defense still made him a luxury backup catcher prospect. At this point, though, his toolset is more like that of a standard backup. He hit .254/.313/.440 (103 wRC+) at Hartford last year, but his rate of chase suggests to me that he’ll perform below that at the big league level.
Kiley McDaniel of ESPN.com slotted Romo 5th in the system in February as a 45 FV player:
Romo is a standout defender with a plus-plus arm and plus bat control. He doesn’t have much in-game power right now, which is harmed by his high chase rate. The offensive bar to clear for catchers is low, so one adjustment could put him back on the Top 100.
Keith Law of the Athletic ranked Romo fifth in the system in February:
Romo has been hovering in that 75-125 range on my rankings for a few years now. He’s a no-doubt big-league catcher, and the question is whether he’ll hit enough to be a regular or just one of the better backups available. He can really catch, in every aspect, and he’s got plenty of arm even with some mediocre caught-stealing rates in the minors that might make you question it. And he can hit a fastball with 55 power, maybe pushing 60. He can not, however, recognize spin, and his whiff rates on non-fastballs were all way too high in Double A, so he projects as a .220-240 hitter with a few walks and 15-20 homers if he were to play every day. That might still make him a regular, although there’s a chance he hits even less than that, and I’m not sure he can get to more without a complete overhaul of his pitch recognition. He’s going to have a long career with his defense and power, though.
When’s he going to get to the Rockies and how good will he be once he’s there?
Romo has gotten the call to the Show and it appears the Rockies will give him some runway as the primary catcher for 2025 and beyond, especially if Jacob Stallings’ mutual option isn’t exercised this off-season. Romo’s defensive ability and contact profile are good enough to clear the low floor needed to provide value of a MLB catcher, and he could be considerably more than that as he gets used to big league pitching. I placed Romo in my 45 FV tier, ninth on my list, due mostly to offensive concerns, but he’s a very likely big-league regular at this point.
★ ★ ★
8. Robert Calaz (747 points, 35 ballots) — Preseason Ranking: 13 — High Ballot 4, Mode Ballot 10
How did he enter the organization?
2023 International Free Agent, Dominican Republic
Why did he make the PuRPs list?
Calaz’s meteoric rise up the PuRPs list continues into the top ten after a very strong stateside debut this summer. The 18-year-old outfielder received Colorado’s top international signing bonus in the 2023 January period at $1.7 million, which is similar to what fellow PuRP Sean Sullivan received as a second-round pick in the 2023 draft. The 6’2” right-handed slugger, 24th on MLB.com’s international amateur free agent prospect rankings for 2023, has above-average power and speed, though plenty of development remains.
In 2023, Calaz was assigned to the Dominican Summer League’s DSL Rockies squad. Calaz hit .325/.423/.561 with seven homers (tied for fifth in the league) and 21 extra-base hits in 189 PA (155 wRC+) in his first professional action, showing immediate mastery of the league. That included a massive 1.240 OPS against left-handed pitching. Calaz mostly played center field with a little of right field mixed in, committing six errors in 38 games.
This year, Calaz came stateside to play with the Arizona Complex League, where he was 1.8 years younger than league average, and flat-out murdered the ball. In 210 PA with the ACL team, Calaz hit ten homers among his 27 extra-base hits with 12 steals in 13 attempts en route to a monster .349/.462/.651 line, good for a 173 wRC+. His homer, total base, and RBI totals are league-leading, while BA/OBP/SLG are all in the top 10.
The Rockies promoted Calaz to Low-A Fresno earlier this month, where he is 3.1 years younger than league average. That hasn’t stopped Calaz, though — he is hitting .326/.396/.587 with two homers in 53 PA so far (153 wRC+). The only red flag this far is a strikeout % in mid-20s, but at least his walk % is in the low teens. In the field, Calaz has split time between center (26 games, one error) and right field (29 games, three errors).
Here is a look at Calaz in extended spring training courtesy of Fangraphs:
What do the scouts say?
MLB.com ranks Calaz 10th in the system as a 45 Future Value player, highlighted by 55 grades on his power and speed:
While many young players from the international market scream projection but lack present strength, Calaz is already very physical. The power was showing up a little bit during his debut, but that’s just scratching the surface of unlocking his right-handed raw pop. He’s developed the beginnings of a pretty good approach with a feel to hit, too, allaying some early concerns about his abilities to find the barrel consistently.
Calaz is still learning his body and how to use it efficiently, but he’s an above-average runner and has the chance to stay in center field. A move to a corner could happen in the future if he slows down, but for now, the Rockies are mostly working with him on slowing the game down and helping him to learn about routines and preparations to maximize his very loud tools.
Fangraphs ranked Calaz as a 40+ FV player in April, highlighted by a plus-plus future grade on his raw power (and a plus on the game power), which is 14th in the system:
Calaz had among the best present raw power in the 2023 international signing class and reinforced that assessment with his 2023 DSL debut, as he slugged .561, hit seven homers in 43 games, and posted peak exit velocities that would be plus on the big league scale, let alone for a teenage hitter. During looks from minor league spring training and early on in extended spring as I prepped this list, I left with more skepticism around Calaz’s hit tool than I anticipated, but the power is certainly real.
Calaz’s swing is akin to guys like Connor Joe and Elehuris Montero, and you can see the DNA of this swing throughout the Rockies org, as well as Pittsburgh and Toronto. Calaz’s open-striding cut is geared to vaporize pitches middle-in and down, while he tends to inside-out pitches in other parts of the zone. He is extremely vulnerable to high fastballs, and because of his stride direction, he might be vulnerable to better sliders once he sees them. He ran a 71% contact rate in the DSL last year, which is pretty low for a prospect at that level.
But holy cow, Calaz has power. He nearly hit my car in the D-backs backfield parking lot with a homer the Saturday before list publication, and he still has room on his frame for lots of mass and even more juice. He has a rare blend of strength and athletic fluidity; most hitters with this kind of power at this age are stiffer and wound pretty tight. Even before he signed there was industry sentiment that Calaz may ultimately be a DH, in part because of his lack of feel for the outfield, and after watching him all week, I think that’s fair. He should be developed in right field to see if he can improve (there’s no reason to DH him now), but he isn’t an especially instinctive defender. Like Jordan Beck, Calaz has a middle-of-the-order ceiling and hit tool risk that threatens its consistency and attainability.
Law of the Athletic ranked Calaz 15th in the system back in February:
Calaz is more physically developed than the typical international free agent from the Dominican Republic, so he shows above-average power and plus speed already and needs to work more on his approach than on getting bigger or stronger. He’s got huge raw power even to dead center, but hits with more of an all-fields approach rather than just trying to dead-pull everything. He did miss some time last year with a minor back issue. He made quite a bit of contact last year and doesn’t chase excessively, although we’ll see if that carries over to his U.S. debut this summer. It’s potential 30/20 production from a centerfielder if he does.
When’s he going to get to the Rockies and how good will he be once he’s there?
Scouts are skeptical of Calaz’s ability to stay in the field long-term, but for now he’s capable of hanging in center field. They have no skepticism about his power, which has manifested quite well so far. At the end of the day, plus right-handed power is tough to come by, and the big signing bonus Calaz got is proof positive of its market value.
Calaz is clearly a high ceiling player who is a few years away, but his dominance in his first exposure to Low-A is encouraging. I see the Rockies sending him back to Fresno next year, with a Spokane appearance later in the season likely. I ranked Calaz 10th on my list as a 45 FV player because of the bonus, performance, and his ability to play a passable center field.
★ ★ ★
7. Sean Sullivan (787 points, 35 ballots) — Preseason Ranking: 12 — High Ballot 3, Mode Ballot 8
How did he enter the organization?
2023 2md Round, Wake Forest University
Why did he make the PuRPs list?
Sullivan was Colorado’s second-round pick in 2023, 46th overall, clearly identifying him as a prospect to watch. The 6’4” lefty 22-year-old pitcher was the number two starter at Wake Forest behind first-round pick Rhett Lowder as the Demon Deacons made it all the way to the College World Series semi-finals. Sullivan threw 69 2⁄3 innings in 17 games (10 starts) with a 2.45 ERA, 0.92 WHIP (fourth-best in Division 1), a 14.3 K/9 rate (second-best), and a 2.7 BB/9 rate.
Sullivan rode those numbers to a $1.7 million bonus from the Rockies that was about $187k below slot. He relies mostly on his fastball which, despite velocity that is usually only in the 88-92 MPH range, is a plus pitch due to a low, wide release angle that gives it great carry up in the zone. He pairs that offering with a slider and change-up, but the fastball is the main separator.
Rockies brass were impressed in a post-draft MLB.com article:
“[Sullivan] struck out guys,” general manager Bill Schmidt said. “Hitters had problems picking up his stuff. He’s left-handed with a very quality slider and angle to his fastball.” Sullivan, whose motion resembles that of Kyle Freeland, came highly recommended from the Rockies’ analytics department.
After a four inning cameo in 2023 in which Sullivan allowed no hits, one walk, and struck out 10 batters, it was clear that a High-A assignment would be needed to challenge him. In High-A Spokane this year, where Sullivan was 2.2 years younger than league average, the statistical dominance continued. In 14 starts with Spokane, Sullivan threw 83 1⁄3 innings with a 2.13 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 10.9 K/9 rate, and a minuscule 0.9 BB/9 rate. Sullivan was clearly in cruise mode in July, when he went just five innings per start in three starts (so 15 IP in total), but allowed just one run on eight hits with two walks and 25 strikeouts.
The Rockies finally showed mercy on Northwest League hitters with a promotion of Sullivan early this month to Double-A Hartford, where Sullivan is 3.5 years younger than league average. All Sullivan has done since then is maintain his dominance against Eastern League hitters. In four starts, Sullivan has gone 17 innings, allowing just three runs on 13 hits and three walks while striking out 12 as the Rockies throttle down his pitch and inning count.
Here’s some video of Sullivan striking out 13 hitters in his High-A debut, many of them swinging:
If you want to watch Sullivan strike out a bunch of guys in a row with high fastballs, this highlight video from the ACC network might also be fun.
What do the scouts say?
Sullivan was ranked 123rd overall in the draft by MLB.com, well below where the Rockies took him, but that looks woefully inaccurate now. He is slotted 11th in the system as a 45 FV player thanks to 60 fastball and 55 control grades:
Sullivan is an outlier in a number of ways, not just for being the antithesis of how the Rockies have drafted pitching. Even though his fastball averaged just a tick over 90 mph last year (though he could touch 95 mph), he threw it 75 percent of the time with Wake. Because of his lower slot and wide angle that leads to huge carry up in the zone, it doesn’t get hit even when hitters know it’s coming (36 percent miss rate on the pitch in 2023). Right now, Sullivan’s best secondary offering is his changeup, which can also miss bats and is an easy average pitch. He has a tendency to change the slot on his slider, hurting its consistency, but the Rockies think it could improve as he works on pitch design with pro instruction.
Sullivan does an excellent job of filling up the strike zone despite his unusual mechanics, and he tunnels his mix well to make him even harder to hit. It remains to be seen if this will work in Colorado, but he’s the kind of pitcher you don’t try to change.
Fangraphs was less of a believer in April, grading Sullivan as a 40 FV player, which is 24th in the org:
Sullivan is an ultra-deceptive cross-bodied lefty with a rise/run heater. His stride direction takes him toward the first base line at an extreme angle, and this, in concert with his low three-quarters slot, makes him very deceptive; it takes hitters a few looks at him to get comfortable. He does most of his swing-and-miss damage with a low-90s fastball that averaged 90 mph across all of 2023. He was sitting more 90-94 during his postseason starts with Wake, but has been back in the 88-91 mph range during the spring of 2024.
In college, Sullivan’s repertoire was fastball-heavy in the extreme at about 75% usage, which isn’t sustainable in pro ball when you sit 89. His mid-80s changeup appears to be coming to the forefront of his secondary offerings early in 2024. Sullivan sells it with arm speed and tends to command it to the arm-side edge of the plate. His slider isn’t nasty on its own, but his arm angle is going to help it play against lefties and it has enough length to play as a strike-stealing backdoor offering versus righties. There aren’t many starters who look like Sullivan in the big leagues — guys like Ryan Yarbrough and Reiver Sanmartin can kind of give you an idea of the role pitchers like Sullivan tend to play. As of list publication, he is off to a very good start at Spokane, and this org is clearly open to exploring starting roles for low-slot guys pitchers like him and Carson Palmquist.
Law ranked Sullivan 11th in the system in February:
The Rockies took Sullivan in the second round last year, an unusual player type for them — he’s a deception lefty who doesn’t throw hard but whose stuff moves and who pounds the zone. He’s got a lower slot so his approach angle to hitters is quite low, helping his 90-93 mph fastball play even up in the zone. His changeup is his best pitch, a solid 55, while his slider is sweepy and kind of fringy but works because of the arm slot, making him reasonably tough on left-handed batters. It’s a clean delivery that gets him online to the plate and he’s aggressive within and around the zone. The Rockies have had trouble with pitching forever, recently dealing with a slew of pitcher injuries. Sullivan is not their typical pitching draft pick, so perhaps they’ll see a better outcome here, as he looks like a potential league-average starter.
When’s he going to get to the Rockies and how good will he be once he’s there?
Between Chase Dollander, Sullivan, and Cole Carrigg, Colorado’s first three picks of the 2023 draft all look like big hits so far. Sullivan’s college dominance with his fastball has carried over to the minor leagues in a big way, even up to Double-A, as he races Dollander to be the first from the draft class to make it to the Show.
The Rockies might assign Sullivan back to Hartford to start next year, but I can’t imagine he’ll stay there long, with a summer Coors Field debut in the cards so long as his health cooperates and if his fastball continues to bedevil minor league hitters. I ranked Sullivan eighth on my list as a 45 FV player because of the pedigree and statistical dominance.
★ ★ ★
6. Jordan Beck (869 points, 35 ballots) — Preseason Ranking: 6 — High Ballot 4, Mode Ballot 5, 6
How did he enter the organization?
2022 Competitive Balance Round A, University of Tennessee
Why did he make the PuRPs list?
The 23-year-old right-handed outfielder was Colorado’s third pick in 2022 (38th overall in Competitive Balance Round A) but was ranked very closely to the first two picks (fellow PuRPs Sterlin Thompson, No. 17, and Gabriel Hughes, No. 13) by most national scouts as an impact player (and beat them to the big leagues). The 6’3”, 225-pounder, who played all three outfield positions at Tennessee with good athleticism and raw power, signed for a $2.2 million bonus ($150k over slot).
Beck was assigned to High-A Spokane to begin 2023 and mashed to the tune of .292/.378/.566 with 20 homers among his 40 extra-base hits and 11 steals in 341 PA (149 wRC+). The 20 homers led the Northwest League through mid-July, and even at the end of the year was second place in the league. Beck earned a mid-July promotion to Double-A Hartford, which was a greater challenge, but his .240/.342/.406 line with five homers and nine steals in 223 PA was still above league average production (108 wRC+). In all, Beck swatted 25 homers and stole 20 bases (in 25 attempts) on the year.
Notably, Beck hit for power in 2023 while also showing patience, maintaining a nearly 13% between the two levels (slightly higher in Hartford). However, he also struck out nearly a third of the time in Hartford (32%) — a profile that only really works at higher levels if you also walk a ton and hit with authority, ideally while also providing some defensive utility. Beck split his time between all three defensive positions as the Rockies managed a crowded outfield picture in Spokane and Hartford, committing two errors and recording eight outfield assists in 114 games.
This year, Beck was bumped up to Triple-A Albuquerque, where he is 3.8 years younger than league average. Even in the hitter friendly Pacific Coast League, Beck started off with a bang, hitting .307/.405/.594 with five homers among his 17 extra-base-hits in his first 25 games. That success got him the call to the Show at the end of April, where he was an everyday player for the Rockies for the next month.
The Rockies experience started off well, as Beck went 2-for-4 in his debut. However, in 22 May games with the Rockies, Beck hit just .173/.182/.307 in 77 PA with two homers and four doubles. His time with the Rockies was interrupted when he broke his left hand diving for a ball in the outfield, knocking him out of commission for two months. After a short rehab assignment in the ACL, Beck was optioned back down to Albuquerque. After Beck again raked for 14 games in Albuquerque (eight of them were multi-hit games), he got the invite back to the Rockies in mid-August. In the eight games since then, Beck is 8-for-33 (.242).
To summarize 2024 so far for Beck: in Albuquerque he’s hitting .319/.402/.558 in 189 PA (136 wRC+). In Denver, Beck is a .215/.254/.308 hitter (41 wRC+), worth -0.6 rWAR, while striking out in 35% of PA. In other words, MLB pitching is no joke.
Here’s some highlights from Beck’s best Major League game to date, when he drove in five runs in a game and hit his first home run this May:
What do the scouts say?
Beck is 77th on the MLB.com’s top 100 overall list and ranks third in the org as a 55 Future Value player:
While there are still some questions about swing-and-miss, it’s pretty clear that Beck is going to be able to keep tapping into his considerable raw power. He finished the 2023 season with 61 extra-base hits and was tied for third in the organization with his 134 wRC+. He has good bat speed and uses his leveraged swing to punish mistakes and drive the ball to all fields. He will rack up a fair share of strikeouts, but he’s worked to offset that by drawing more walks as a pro.
Beck runs better than one might expect given his big 6-foot-3 frame, and isn’t afraid to use that speed on the basepaths. The Rockies have been pleasantly surprised how good he’s been defensively while seeing time in all three outfield spots. He might still best be suited as a super-athletic right-field type who puts up big run production numbers annually.
The profile is highlighted by a 60 arm grade as well as 55 grades on his power, speed, and defense.
FanGraphs is lower on Beck due to swing and miss concerns with the profile, giving him a 40+ FV grade in April, headlined by 60 future raw power, ranking him 13th in the org:
Beck should get to enough of his power to be a useful big league role player, and he’ll probably have a peak year or two where he plays more or less every day and hits 30 bombs, maybe more with help from Denver. But same as I wrote last year when he was crushing it at Spokane, I am apprehensive about projecting him to do it consistently and for an extended period of time because of the nature of his swing-and-miss. Beck had more swinging strikes than balls in play last year in a sample that was generated mostly at High-A. His 64% contact rate would rank near the very bottom of the big league outfielder population alongside players whose production is a pretty good comp for what I expect from peak Beck, like Brent Rooker and Luke Raley. Beck is a powerful, tightly wound athlete with thunderous raw power and above-average speed. His swing takes a long time to enter the hitting zone, often leaving him late on fastballs either at the belt or on the outer third of the plate. He has the pop to do opposite field damage when he actually makes contact with pitches away from him, but he whiffs out there a ton already even though he isn’t yet seeing big league-level velo consistently.
Beck is playing a mix of all three outfield positions but is destined for a corner in the majors. His speed gives him plus corner outfield range, while his ball skills and hands are below average. Rooker is the cleanest current big league comp for Beck from a production and profile standpoint, as the others are either toolsier (Jose Siri, Tyler O’Neill) or hit left-handed (Raley, Matt Wallner). There are scouts who have average everyday grades on Beck, and while I think he’ll peak as such, I’ll take the under across his years of team control because of the way it looks like his hit tool will trend.
Kiley McDaniel of ESPN.com ranked Beck 25th among 2022 draft prospects (just ahead of Hughes and Thompson) and placed him eighth in the system (still ahead of Colorado’s first two picks in 2022) with a 45 FV grade in February:
[Compared to Thompson], Beck has a tick more raw power and even more feel for lifting the ball in games, along with being a bit better corner outfield defender, but he has less innate bat-to-ball ability.
Law of the Athletic was highest on Beck in the draft, ranking him 14th overall pre-draft and ranked him sixth in the system in February:
Beck’s full-season debut saw him smoke High-A pitching for a .292/.378/.566 line, after which he moved up to Double A and ran into the traditional trouble, whiffing on sliders down and away as well as fastballs up above the top of the zone. He played all three outfield spots last year, with enough range to handle center but not to be plus and plenty of arm for right field, where he might end up a plus defender given his speed and athleticism. He’s got plus power and his ball/strike recognition isn’t as behind as his pitch recognition, so he could still end up a soft regular even without a big adjustment, although he needs to pick up spin a lot better to become a league-average everyday player or more.
When’s he going to get to the Rockies and how good will he be once he’s there?
Beck didn’t really hit a wall as he speed-ran the minors, but time will tell if he can translate that success consistently to the big leagues. Scouts like Beck’s raw power, defensive utility, and athleticism but have concerns with his approach at the plate and the swing-and-miss in his game. The former traits give Beck a high ceiling but the latter traits make it less likely he attains that ceiling. I ranked Beck sixth on my list as a 50 FV player because I believe he’s a big-league regular of some sort, but hasn’t quite locked it in yet.
As you’ve no doubt seen through this exercise, the Rockies now have quite a bit of system depth in the outfield — four of the top six PuRPs are (at least potentially) outfielders who should be in the big leagues within the next two years — which will complicate the log-jam already developing at the big league level. It’s unclear how Beck will fit in, but he’s certainly forced his way into the picture and will likely soon exhaust his rookie eligibility.
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Tomorrow, it’s time to enter the top five of the mid-season 2024 PuRPs list!