Now, we get to the top half of this year’s PuRPs list!
Now we enter the top half of the mid-season 2024 Purple Row Prospects (PuRPs) list. Previously we had PuRPs 30-26, 25-21, and 20-16. As a reminder, in this edition of the PuRPs poll, 35 ballots were cast, with 30 points granted for a first place vote, 29 for second, etc.
For each player on the PuRPs list, I’ll include a link to individual stats and contract status (via Baseball-Reference), PuRPs voting stats, a note on the 2024 season to date, and a scouting report from a national prospect writer where possible. For what it’s worth, I’ll also include where I put each player on my personal ballot. All ages are as of the date the article is posted.
15. Jordy Vargas (515 points, 35 ballots) — Preseason Ranking: 14 — High Ballot 9, Mode Ballot 17
How did he enter the organization?
2021 International Free Agent, Dominican Republic
Why did he make the PuRPs list?
Vargas was one of Colorado’s headline prospects from their January 2021 amateur free agent class, signing for $500k out of the Dominican Republic. The 6’3”, 153-pound 20-year-old right-handed starter has MLB bloodlines, as he is the son of pitcher Yorkis Perez, who played in parts of nine big-league seasons for five different teams. Vargas boasts a pitch mix that includes a mid-90s fastball, a potential plus curveball, a promising change, and the ability to throw them for strikes consistently.
Vargas split 2022 between the complex league and Low-A Fresno, and the latter place is where he was assigned to begin 2023. At 2.9 years younger than league average, Vargas was one of the youngest players in the California League (younger even than 2022 second-round pick Jackson Cox). In his return to Fresno, Vargas was clearly not overmatched by the competition in 64 innings across 13 starts, in which he had a 4.22 ERA with a 1.23 WHIP, 9.7 K/9 rate, and 3.4 BB/9 rate. Right-handed batters hit just .202 against him.
Vargas was slated to be a top-10 PuRP before undergoing Tommy John surgery in July 2023. For Vargas, 2024 has been consumed with rehab and regaining strength, a cruel blow for the pitcher and for Rockies fans looking forward to an exciting young starter scaling the minor league ladder. We’ll just have to wait until 2025 to see if Vargas maintains his stuff post-TJ rehab.
Here’s some video of Vargas in his first ACL appearance in 2022, courtesy of Fangraphs:
What do the scouts say?
Fangraphs gives Vargas a 45+ FV grade (with plus grades on both the fastball and curveball), currently 4th in the system:
Vargas is a loose, ultra-projectable, strike-throwing starter prospect with a curvaceous breaking ball. He had Tommy John late in 2023 and will probably miss most, if not all, of 2024 to rehab. At age 18, Vargas was already sitting 93-95 mph with disruptive tailing action, and he held that velo as his innings load and per-start output grew in full-season ball. His curveball is a knee-buckling parabola of death, he’s adept at creating tail on his changeup, and his general athleticism and the looseness of his arm action portend continued growth in this area. His fastball’s shape doesn’t really complement his curveball right now, but Vargas is too young to really worry about that. The ease of his delivery and his ability to throw strikes both facilitate starter projection, and his extremely lanky, broad-shouldered build not only generates hope that he can maintain mid-90s heat under a starter’s workload, but also that he may continue to throw harder as he matures. He had the look of a guy with mid-rotation ceiling when he was healthy, with time and the risk associated with teenage arms pulling down his FV grade even before he got hurt.
MLB.com ranks Vargas 26th as a 40 FV player:
When he’s healthy, Vargas might be the best pitching prospect in the system in terms of being able to pound the strike zone with a solid three-pitch mix. He can command his low-90s fastball to both sides of the plate, and the carry it has in the top of the zone helps it play up and keeps hitters from barreling it up. He can get a little fastball-heavy in his pitch mix, but he was making strides in his secondary offerings, especially in focusing in on one breaking ball. Instead of trying to create a distinct slider and curve only to have them run into each other, he’s recognized that the biting slider has a real chance to be an out pitch. There’s a solid changeup in there as well.
With a narrow and slender frame, it remains to be seen if Vargas can put on weight and add strength in order to be durable enough — and maintain his stuff enough — to be a starter. There’s also work to be done in terms of professional maturity and not letting his emotions get the better of him on the mound. For now, though, rehabbing his elbow is the top priority with an eye towards a full return in 2025 when he’ll still be just 21 years old.
Keith Law of the Athletics ranked Vargas 19th in the org in February:
Vargas was the third Rockies pitcher to blow out his elbow last summer, as the team announced his Tommy John surgery with those of Hughes and Cox. He was the furthest away of the three as he has more physical development ahead of him, but before the injury he showed good spin on a curveball and average control, needing to pick up velocity and just get stronger for stamina within games. There was three-pitch starter upside here before the injury, depending now on whether the stuff comes back.
Kiley McDaniel of ESPN.com ranked Vargas 7th in the system as a 45 FV player pre-season:
Vargas had his Tommy John surgery announced in 2023 (along with Jackson Cox) just as he was having a breakthrough season with some Top 100 vibes to it. He’s a 6-foot-3 right-hander who flashes three above-average pitches and starter traits, though it was still early to see precision within the strike zone.
When’s he going to get to the Rockies and how good will he be once he’s there?
Vargas had an impressive start to his professional baseball career, but now he’s been on the shelf for an extended period of time as he rehabs. With that comes the uncertainty if Vargas will be the same pitcher afterwards. The pre-injury Vargas possessed tremendous upside as a prospect and appeared likely to remain in the starting rotation in the future. Much can happen in between Low-A and MLB though, and Tommy John surgery recovery isn’t a guarantee.
The good news is that Vargas won’t be Rule 5 eligible until after 2025, meaning the Rockies will have time to see what kind of pitcher he can be against more advanced hitting. I ranked Vargas 11th on my ballot as a 45 FV talent due mostly to the inherent risk with surgery, though on talent alone I think he’s closer to the 50 FV tier near the top of the system.
★ ★ ★
14. Kyle Karros (523 points, 34 ballots) — Preseason Ranking: HM — High Ballot 9, Mode Ballot 18
How did he enter the organization?
2023 5th Round, UCLA
Why did he make the PuRPs list?
The UCLA product is indeed the son of noted Rockies-killer Eric (career line .320/.380/.619 against Colorado) — and he’s had a breakout 2024 to make the highest PuRPs debut from players who were already in the system pre-season. The 22-year-old 6’5” righty-hitting third baseman signed for a slot bonus of $433.5k after a junior season in 2023 where he hit .284/.372/.420 with five homers in 199 PA for the Bruins.
After signing, Karros was initially assigned to the complex team, where he hit .327/.450/.408 (130 wRC+) in 60 PA. He was promoted to Low-A Fresno, where he hit .259/.365/.284 with just two extra base hits in 96 PA (90 wRC+). That wasn’t a standout line, but the Rockies liked what they saw enough to send Karros to High-A this year, where he is 1.5 years younger than league average.
In Spokane, Karros has been a star offensively from the start, getting named the Northwest League player of the month in April — and that hasn’t even been his best month by OPS (he had a .973 OPS in April and a 1.054 OPS in July). In total he’s hitting .315/.388/.495 with 14 HR and 33 other XBH with 12 steals in 16 attempts in 484 plate appearances, which is good for a 148 wRC+, and he’s walking in 9% of his PA while striking out in 22%. Those 14 HR match the entire output Karros had in his three year college career. In 104 games at third, Karros has committed 10 errors.
Here are some of Karros’ 2023 highlights at UCLA:
What do the scouts say?
Karros is graded by MLB.com as a 45 FV player and slots in 19th in Colorado’s system, highlighted by a plus grade on his throwing arm:
Before he got hurt, Karros was using the 15 pounds of strength he had added to good effect at UCLA. He also was utilizing a more closed-off stance and has shown the ability to use the big part of the field well and make a ton of contact. His strikeout rate dropped while his walk rate improved, and while he hasn’t put up big power numbers, he can backspin the ball the other way and his approach should help him tap into his raw power.
The work that Karros did on his conditioning also made him a better defender at third. His plus arm always worked from the hot corner and his added agility and ranginess gives him every chance to stay there at this level. But he’s going to have to go out and prove he can impact the ball enough to profile as an everyday player at the infield corner.
Karros is a 40 FV player at Fangraphs, ranking 33rd in the system:
[Karros] might end up growing into more power, as he’s a strapping 6-foot-5 and still has room for strength on his broad-shouldered frame. His lever length does tend to cause Karros to inside out the baseball the other way, but unlike a lot of long-levered hitters for whom this is true, he doesn’t typically get beat around the hands. He is also a surprisingly slick defender for his size, making up for what he lacks in twitch with elegant footwork, deft hands, and a plus arm. Karros stands a good chance to be a four corners role player and has a puncher’s chance to be an everyday third baseman if indeed he can add power as a pro.
When’s he going to get to the Rockies and how good will he be once he’s there?
Karros has seen his prospect stock improve quite a bit this year, and if the newfound power stroke has staying power, he could indeed distinguish himself as a future regular at third base. He’ll likely begin next year at Double-A and he could be a factor for the big league club before his Rule 5 eligibility after the 2026 season. I ranked Karros near the top of the 40 FV tier as I’d like to see if the power streak is limited to the low minors, 22nd on my list.
★ ★ ★
13. Gabriel Hughes (576 points, 35 ballots) — Preseason Ranking: 10 — High Ballot 12, Mode Ballot 25
How did he enter the organization?
2022 1st Round, Gonzaga University
Why did he make the PuRPs list?
Hughes is another Rockies pitching prospect who was felled by an arm injury that required Tommy John surgery in July 2023. The 6’4” 23-year-old (as of yesterday) right-hander was Colorado’s first pick in 2022, going 10th overall and getting an under-slot $4 million bonus. Hughes was ranked more as a late-first rounder than a top-10 pick by national prospect watchers, but the Rockies obviously liked the starter’s frame, feel for pitching and the three pitch mix. The former two-way player boasts a fastball that touches the upper 90s but sits in the low-mid 90s and a bulldog mentality that has been compared to Max Scherzer.
After a cameo appearance at the end of 2022 with Low-A Fresno, Hughes began his professional career in earnest in 2023 with High-A Spokane, near his old college stomping grounds of Gonzaga. Against hitters that were on average 2.1 years older than him, Hughes threw 37 2⁄3 innings across eight starts with a 5.50 ERA (3.48 xFIP), 1.20 WHIP, 12.9 K/9 rate, and 3.6 BB/9 rate. The xFIP and high K/9 rate indicates better stuff than the raw results delivered, and the Rockies agreed in promoting Hughes to Double-A Hartford in early June.
Hughes was 3.4 years younger than the Eastern League average, but he mostly held his own, even if the ERA didn’t bear that out. In 29 innings over six starts, Hughes had a 7.14 ERA but a 4.06 xFIP with a 1.55 WHIP, 9.0 K/9 rate, and 3.4 BB/9 rate for Hartford. It was a good first full professional season for Hughes, but unfortunately it ended due to the injury that necessitated Tommy John surgery. Hughes is still rehabbing the injury and hasn’t pitched in 2024, delaying what could have been a swift rise to the majors.
Here’s some pre-draft video on Hughes courtesy of Perfect Game:
What do the scouts say?
MLB.com ranked Hughes 26th in the 2022 draft class but have dropped him to 23rd on the system list as a 40 FV player after the injury:
When he’s healthy, Hughes brings an intriguing combination of size and stuff — with feel for it — to the mound. Even right before the elbow injury in Double-A last year, he was up to 97 mph with his fastball, though he sat at around 93. His short and hard mid-80s slider, that has cutter-like action to it, flashes plus and he’s shown feel to spin an effective upper-70s curve as well. He has an 87-88 mph changeup as well, but it’s clearly a fourth pitch.
Hughes uses an up-tempo delivery and goes right after hitters. He can sometimes run into timing issues and there’s unintentional cut on his fastball occasionally, and both can impact his command, though he’s generally around the strike zone. All of that is on hold, of course, with Hughes not expected to do much competitively until 2025.
The evaluation is headlined by a 60 fastball grade with a 55 on the slider and 50s on the change and control
Fangraphs ranked Hughes 33rd overall among 2022 draft prospects and currently grade him as a 45 FV player with a 60 future grade on the slider, which ranks him 12th in the org:
Hughes looked incredible out of the gate in 2023 and even dominated the Dodgers’ big league lineup during a spring training game, but by the middle of the season he was running an ERA well over 6.00 and a scout source who saw a few of Hughes’ starts in that span had him sitting 91-92 mph. He had Tommy John in July, and a typical rehab timeline would hopefully put him in range to pitch in a competitive setting again late in 2024. Healthy Hughes sits 93-95 mph early in his outings, then tends to fall off into the low 90s late, with cut and sink that keeps him off barrels. I think it’s fair to conclude his huge dip in velocity was a result of injury and not a decline in talent, and Hughes is lined up on the Rockies list under the assumption that his arm strength returns. He also has a two-plane slider that transitioned from being a short, cuttery pitch into a more traditional sweeper that more often has bat-missing length. A slower curveball that Hughes can land for a strike gives him a starter mix that, ideally, could use another weapon against lefties. Hughes’ size, athleticism, arm speed, and stuff were all very exciting prior to the TJ (though his delivery was pretty violent), and I had him projected as a workhorse no. 4/5 starter on a good team.
Keith Law of the Athletic ranked Hughes 30th before the 2022 draft and ranked him 16th in February:
Hughes had a weird start to the 2023 season; the Rockies’ first pick in the 2022 draft, he went to High-A Spokane, posted solid peripherals but had a 5.50 ERA, then moved up to Double A and posted a 7.14 ERA before going on the shelf with a torn UCL that required Tommy John surgery. He was up to 97 mph again, sitting more 90-94, still with a plus slider, spinning an above-average curveball as well, throwing almost no changeups and giving up a .500 slugging percentage to lefties. He was atrocious with men on base, hurrying through his delivery with barely a leg kick and rushing off the rubber, so that might also be an area for improvement once he’s back from rehab. We probably won’t see him on a mound again until fall instructional league.
When’s he going to get to the Rockies and how good will he be once he’s there?
Hughes is a strong starting pitcher prospect with good upside and pedigree, even though he seemed more like a late-first round pick than the top ten spot he was drafted in. Furthermore, it was surprising the Rockies had him so far ahead in bonus money of fellow top-40 picks Sterlin Thompson and Jordan Beck (the latter of which ranks higher on this PuRPs list). I thought of all three players pretty similarly (45 FV) when they were drafted, and that’s the band Hughes finds himself near the back of on my list (12th) given the TJ surgery.
Before the injury, Hughes was tracking like a potential late-2024 MLB debut, but now that’s probably been pushed back a year and he’ll probably start next season in Hartford.
★ ★ ★
12. Cole Carrigg (703 points, 35 ballots) — Preseason Ranking: 11 — High Ballot 5, Mode Ballot 10
How did he enter the organization?
2023 2nd Round, San Diego State University
Why did he make the PuRPs list?
The term “super-utility player” is often employed with hyperbole, but in the case of Carrigg, it fits like a glove (any kind of baseball glove in Carrigg’s case). The 22-year-old has played literally every position (and played them well) in a college or pro game over the last few years — and he’s even a switch-hitter so he provides versatility there too.
Colorado drafted the 6’2” Carrigg 65th overall in 2023 as a catcher, where his plus-plus arm (he threw 102 MPH from the outfield at the Draft Combine) could make him a defensive weapon in a MLB where robots are calling balls and strikes. In three college seasons, with SDSU, Carrigg hit .333/.399/.477 with seven homers, 48 extra-base hits, and 39 steals in 547 PA. That as well as a strong performance in the wood bat Cape Cod summer league led to a $1.3 million over-slot bonus (by $116k) from the Rockies.
Carrigg continued hitting well as a professional during his draft year, tearing through the complex league with a .396/.464/.688 line including two homers, nine extra-base hits, and seven steals in 57 PA (176 wRC+). That was enough for the Rockies to send him up to Low-A Fresno in mid-August. In 23 games there, all Carrigg did is hit .326/.376/.554 with three homers, four triples, four doubles, and six steals in 101 PA (145 wRC+). In that small sample, he was stronger hitting lefty (.945 OPS) than right-handed (.778 OPS) Defensively, Carrigg split his time between catcher, shortstop, and center field — he’s a true up-the-middle defender!
This year, Carrigg was moved up to High-A Spokane, where he’s mostly played center field (78 games, 2 errors) with some shortstop (14 games, 2 errors) sprinkled in. Against pitching that is on average 0.5 years older than him, Carrigg has continued to rake. His .276/.353/.455 triple slash in 441 PA is highlighted by 11 homers, 10 triples, and 15 doubles with 42 steals in 51 attempts — good for a 125 wRC+.
Outside of a brief trek to the ACL in late June for an injury rehab, Carrigg’s progress has stayed on an upward trajectory. He’s walking in nearly 10% of PA while striking out in about 19% and is hitting markedly better from the right side of the plate (.966 OPS vs. .794 from the left side), which is the opposite of his 2023 splits.
Here’s Carrigg having a four-hit game in Spokane this June:
What do the scouts say?
Carrigg was 47th overall in MLB.com’s draft rankings and is slotted 8th in the system as a 45 FV player with a 60 run and 70 arm grade:
A switch-hitter who can make a ton of contact from both sides of the plate, Carrigg can be a little overly aggressive at times. There were some questions about how his bat would transfer to the pro game, but so far they’ve been unfounded, as he’s been athletic in the box and shown good bat speed with the ability to drive the ball. He’s a plus runner who should continue to be a threat on the basepaths.
Defensively, Carrigg has seen most of his time up the middle: at short, in center field and behind the plate. His double-plus arm is an asset in all three spots, as is his athleticism. His best position is center, with the Rockies cognizant that a plus arm is needed there in the vast expanse of Coors Field. He’s constantly on the attack on ground balls at short, and there’s confidence that would play if he got more reps there. He loves to catch, but it’s seen as the third-best option and the Rockies may not want to take his speed away by having him there full-time. Wherever he is, his hair-on-fire style of play should help him maximize his tools.
Fangraphs graded Carrigg as a 40 FV player with an 80 grade on the arm, 28th in the system:
Carrigg is a superlative athlete with some monster tools, but none on offense. He lit up the Combine athletics testing, especially the throwing drills; he has a legit 80 arm with unbelievable connectivity during max-effort rips. Carrigg is a wiry, sinewy athlete with a multi-positional background, getting catcher, shortstop, and third base reps as an underclassman at San Diego State, while playing center field as a junior. The Rockies let him catch a little bit after the draft, but he is back to playing mostly center field so far in 2024, to mixed reviews. He’s more likely to wind up playing a dynamic right field and a couple infield positions. A switch-hitter with a long lefty swing, Carrigg’s cut is grooved from both sides of the plate. I don’t think he’ll hit enough to be a true everyday guy, but he should be a fun role player with premium defensive versatility assuming he continues to revisit other defensive positions in pro ball, which in a best-case scenario includes catcher.
Kiley McDaniel of ESPN.com placed Carrigg 10th in the system as a 45 FV player pre-season:
Carrigg is a pick to click for some from the 2023 draft class due to his ability to play catcher, shortstop, and center field and thus really every spot on the field including pitcher given his plus-plus arm. He would be my second pick from this group [including Sterlin Thompson and Jordan Beck], but if he can dial in his chase rate a bit, he may be in the Top 100 discussion next winter.
Law ranked Carrigg 13th in the system in February:
Carrigg played center, caught, and handled some infield duties as an amateur at San Diego State, from where the Rockies plucked him with a compensatory pick after the second round last year. They announced him as a catcher but it sounds now like he’s going to play center, which is his best chance for value as he can run and has a 70 arm. The swing is all about contact, and he rarely strikes out or walks and hits for no power, with just seven homers in three seasons in college. His positional versatility gives him a higher probability to reach the majors, as he could be a backup at every position, although I don’t see the bat playing enough for him to be a regular.
When’s he going to get to the Rockies and how good will he be once he’s there?
Carrigg’s tremendous defensive utility and athleticism means he is very easy to fit into whatever fantasy future Rockies roster you may have in mind. He’s also shown more power this year in Spokane than his profile suggested up until this year, making him more of a candidate to be a big league regular than was thought entering 2024. Carrigg should get a shot at Double-A Hartford to start next year, and he honestly could be at Coors Field not long after since he legitimately could back up basically any position.
If and when a MLB debut happens, Carrigg could be a valuable player all over the diamond, especially if his plate discipline improves and he displays more power. I ranked Carrigg 15th in the system as a 40+ FV player, but if the power gains are sustainable he’s easily up another tier.
★ ★ ★
11. Brody Brecht (709 points, 35 ballots) — Preseason Ranking: NR — High Ballot 5, Mode Ballot 7, 9, 11
How did he enter the organization?
2024 Competitive Balance Round A, University of Iowa
Why did he make the PuRPs list?
Brecht could have been an early draft pick coming out of high school in 2021, but he wanted to play college football as a receiver at Iowa. When that didn’t work out as hoped, Brecht concentrated on baseball full-time starting as a sophomore. The 6’4”, 21-year-old righthander then showed enough promise on the mound to earn an over-slot (by $250k) $2.7 million bonus from the Rockies as the 38th-overall pick of the 2024 draft. What kind of promise — how about a fastball that touches triple digits and a high 80s slider that many consider to be his best pitch? The rub of course is below average control of the fastball in particular.
In his sophomore year, Brecht struck out 109 (nearly a third of the batters he faced) but walked 61 (7.1 BB/9). Though there was some improvement in his draft year (5.6 BB/9 rate), it’s a major reason the Rockies were able to get Brecht in the 30s of the draft rather than the top 10. Speaking of that draft year: Brecht again struck out a bunch of hitters — 128 in 78 1⁄3 innings pitched, which is 37% of batters faced and a 14.7 K/9 rate — while compiling a respectable 3.33 ERA.
Brecht hasn’t thrown any professional innings yet, so for now Rockies fans will only have videos like the one below from last year to dream on:
What do the scouts say?
Law ranked Brecht 16th among draft prospects:
Brecht is a project as a pitcher with the upside to justify taking him in the first round despite his current flaws. He can hit 100 regularly as a starter and shows a plus slider that he throws more than the heater because he can land it more consistently and gets a ton of whiffs on it — 56 percent this spring, per data from Synergy Sports. He has a changeup that he doesn’t use very often, and it’s both too straight and too firm right now, although college hitters geared up for the fastball did whiff on it nearly half the time they swung.
A former wide receiver at Iowa, Brecht is extremely athletic and should be able to make some big adjustments, which he’ll need to do, starting with his loose but long arm action to get him a delivery he can repeat.
Law elaborated on Brecht in his Rockies draft write-up:
Iowa right-hander Brody Brecht (CBA) gave up football to focus on baseball this year and showed first-round stuff without the command or control. He’s regularly up to 99-100 as a starter with a plus slider, but he doesn’t repeat his long, loose arm action enough for even average control. He’s got a straight changeup but tried a splitter grip later in the spring to try to get more action on it. He earns a lot of Jeff Samardzija comparisons on build and as wide-receivers-turned-pitchers. Samardzija also took a long time to get a handle on his delivery so he could throw quality strikes, although he had the disadvantage of being on the 40-man from the day he signed. I love this pick for Colorado.
Brecht was ranked 21st overall in the draft by MLB.com and they now rank him 7th in the system as a 50 FV player with plus-plus (70) grades on both the fastball and slider (and a 50 grade on the splitter for good measure):
When he’s on, Brecht’s fastball and slider are comparable to those of Paul Skenes, the No. 1 pick in last year’s Draft. He can sit at 96-99 mph and touch 101 with his heater, which has explosive running action and superior shape to Skenes’ fastball, though Brecht doesn’t locate his nearly as well. All that said, his best pitch is a slider that parks at 87-89 mph and peaks at 91 with plenty of horizontal and vertical action.
Iowa has had Brecht use more sliders than fastballs, which hasn’t helped him improve his well-below-average command of the latter pitch. He also doesn’t have a lot of feel for his sparsely used splitter, which averages 93 mph with promising tumble at its best. He finished third in D-I with 61 walks in 77 innings last spring, had similar control issues this year, may never have average command and comes with considerable reliever risk. But he’s also an exceptional athlete and baseball has his full attention, so he could take off with pro instruction.
Fangraphs ranks Brecht 5th in the system as a 45+ FV player after ranking him 13th overall among draft prospects:
Walks have been an enormous problem for Brecht. He had more walks than inning pitched as a freshman and 135 walks in 178 career innings for the Hawkeyes. Teams with a preconceived notion as to how they’ll fix this should be the only ones who entertain drafting Brecht.
He has a relatively short stride down the mound for someone as big and athletic as he is, and his generic three-quarters slot has a negative impact on his fastball’s shape and movement. It plays well below an average pitch even though Brecht will sit 96 and touch 101. Whatever can be done to help Brecht command his fastball or improve its movement will ideally be implemented without altering his slider, which is an 80-grade SOB that evokes Dinelson Lamet’s upper-80s power breaker. Brecht also has a goofy low-90s changeup with big tail and fade. His secondary pitches diverge in such a way that makes it hard to stay on both of them at the same time.
Built like a marble statue at 6-foot-4, 235 pounds, Brecht has rare size and athleticism, and he hasn’t been focusing on baseball for very long. He also hasn’t yet been in a developmental environment that can max him out. The gap between where he is as a pitcher right now and what he could be is very large. There is precedent for teams solving issues like Brecht’s (Carlos Rodon’s command was a mess, too, though maybe not this bad) and he has enormous upside if someone can. Those right tail outcomes are absolutely baked into his FV grade, as is his risk.
Fangraphs is less sanguine about the fastball (60 future grade) but the slider gets an 80 future grade (70 present).
When’s he going to get to the Rockies and how good will he be once he’s there?
Now that Jaden Hill is a reliever full-time, Brecht is only really competing with Chase Dollander as the highest-ceiling pitcher in the system. In fact, I don’t think Dollander has any weapon that approaches Brecht’s slider. Of course, Dollander has much better present command and is accordingly ranked on national top 50 lists, but Brecht has that kind of ability if Colorado can find the right recipe.
It’s an exciting profile to be sure, though of course the risk is high. I ranked Brecht 7th on my list as a 45+ FV player. He could start next year in either Low-A or High-A, depending on how the Rockies think his profile has evolved by the end of spring. An arm like this is worth a little extra time to bake, so I’d estimate a 3-4 year timeline for Brecht to the big leagues (if he’s a starter).
★ ★ ★
Tomorrow, we get into the top ten of the mid-season 2024 PuRPs list!