The two most-recent first-rounders top the list
In the process of Purple Row Prospects (PuRPs) voting, there were two names that stood above the rest — Colorado’s most recent first rounders: outfielder/third baseman Charlie Condon from this year and pitcher Chase Dollander from last year. Ultimately, Dollander took 16 of the 35 first place votes to earn the number one PuRP designation. So who are these top two prospects? Read on!
2. Charlie Condon (1015 points, 35 ballots) — Preseason Ranking: NR — High Ballot 1 (14), Mode Ballot 1
How did he enter the organization?
2024 1st Round, University of Georgia
Why did he make the PuRPs list?
The 21-year-old righty slugger just received a MLB record-tying $9.25 million bonus as the third-overall pick in this year’s draft (about $180k over slot) because of his huge offensive ceiling. Condon can translate his immense power into games, he hits for average, and has rare defensive ability for his size.
Condon was a one-man wrecking crew this year for Georgia, as the 6’6”, 216 pound hitter smashed 37 homers, a record in the NCAA’s “BBCOR” bats era, and won the prestigious Golden Spikes award as the top amateur baseball player in the country. Given that success, it’s hard to believe that Condon (who played first, third, and all three outfield positions for Georgia) not only went undrafted as a high schooler but also was a walk-on who redshirted in 2022.
Condon bulked up during that redshirt year and played well in the wood bat Northwoods league in the summer, where he posted an .830 OPS as one of the younger players in the league. In 2023, Condon stepped into the Dawgs’ lineup and was an immediate success, swatting 25 homers in 56 games en route to a video game line of .386/.484/.800 in 254 plate appearances. That certainly got him on draft radars, and the aforementioned 2024 power explosion rocketed him up to, for many, the very top of the draft.
In 304 plate appearances over 60 games for Georgia this year, Condon not only hit 37 homers, he also added 20 doubles and a triple while walking 16 more times than he struck out. In all, Condon hit a massive .433/.556/1.009 in 2024!
The Rockies assigned Condon straight to High-A Spokane, as befits a player many tabbed to move very quickly through the system. So far, Condon hasn’t distinguished himself much as he gets his feet wet in affiliated ball, hitting .217/.288/.350 (82 wRC+) with 20 strikeouts compared with two walks in 66 plate appearances. Condon does already have five extra-base hits, including a homer, and three stolen bases (which matches his collegiate total in two years at Georgia). He’s spent more time in left field, but has played three games at third base as well.
With the kind of stats he put up in 2024, you’d better believe Condon had some highlights worth watching:
What do the scouts say?
Multiple outlets ranked Condon atop their 2024 draft rankings. Here’s Kiley McDaniel of ESPN.com’s profile of Condon as a 60 FV player:
Tools: Hit: 35/55, Game Power: 50/65, Raw Power: 70/70, Speed 45/40, Field: 40/50, Arm: 55/55
Where he ranks in an MLB top 100 prospects list: 15
If it doesn’t work out, what happened? He’s a corner outfielder with a fringe hit tool who only gets to some of his power.
Condon is narrowly the top prospect in this draft, just ahead of Travis Bazzana. Both have an elite combo of hit, approach, raw power and game power with some defensive value. They are both a bit ahead of Jac Caglianone, JJ Wetherholt and Braden Montgomery as the top college hitters in this class.
The separators for Condon are his underrated combination of hit tool and pitch selection for a player with his power potential, his physical size (6-foot-6), his underrated potential to stick at third base and that he played in the best amateur conference in the country for two seasons. I think my Kris Bryant comp both describes the kind of hitter he is and his likely defensive progression through the years.
Keith Law of the Athletic also had Condon as the number one player in the draft, then ranked Condon 13th overall in his mid-season top 60:
If you know Condon’s name, it may be because he set the modern record for homers in a single season, with the most home runs of any player since the NCAA switched to BBCOR bats in 2012, reducing exit velocities for safety and, I think, to make the college game look a little more like real baseball.
Condon does have power, but he’s a more complete player than that one stat alone implies. He changed his hand position after the summer of 2023, starting them a little higher, and that small adjustment completely loosened him up at the plate. He has explosive bat speed and now gets the bat to the zone with more force behind it because he’s so direct to the ball once he loads his hands. It’s hard to imagine more power coming, but Condon’s a lean, wiry 6-foot-6 and could get quite a bit stronger in pro ball. He also doesn’t swing and miss often or chase excessively. Even the slider down and away, a weakness for most hitters when it’s against a same-side pitcher, isn’t a huge vulnerability.
He’s a 55 runner now and capable of handling centerfield for the moment, while he’s also impressed scouts with his work at third base this spring despite a lack of any experience at the hot corner. He’ll probably start out as a third baseman and then move to the outfield if that doesn’t work out, with above-average defense in right field probably the worst-case scenario. His foundation of bat speed, plate discipline, hard contact, and athleticism point to a frequent All-Star ceiling, and they’re more than enough to make him the No. 1 prospect in this year’s class.
MLB.com ranks him 12th overall as a 60 FV player and had him second among draft prospects:
Condon surpassed Jeff Pyburn (No. 5 overall in 1980) as the highest-drafted player in Bulldogs history because he has a huge offensive ceiling. He has top-of-the-scale raw power that plays from foul pole to foul pole, and his combination of bat speed, strength and leverage in his 6-foot-6 frame allows him to mishit balls yet still drive them out of the park. Despite his long arms, he keeps his right-handed swing relatively compact and controls the strike zone while repeatedly making loud contact against all types of pitching.
Though he’s a below-average runner, Condon is reasonably athletic and covers ground with long strides once he gets going. After splitting time between first base and the outfield corners as a freshman, he has played all three outfield spots and third base this spring. He’s not quick enough for third or center but he does have solid-to-plus arm strength and can provide average defense in left or right field.
The evaluation is highlighted by a 70 power grade and a 60 on the hit tool.
Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs is less enthusiastic about Condon, grading him as a 50 FV player. Longenhagen ranked Condon second in the system (and 40th overall) after slotting him fourth among draft prospects:
Typically 6-foot-6 guys have trouble handling stuff in on them, but that is not the case with Condon, who will make it rain in the parking lot if you leave something hanging on the inner half. His hands load low (think Marcell Ozuna without quite as big a leg kick), which leaves Condon poised to do damage with a natural uppercut bat path. It’s also a load position associated with swing-and-miss against stuff in the upper part of the zone, which will probably be more of an issue against pro pitching and require adjustment. Condon’s swing is also quite grooved, geared for power on pitches down-and-in but lacking precision and variability in other parts of the zone. If you watch swing after swing on film, the lack of feel for the barrel and some of Condon’s swing decisions (especially during Georgia’s road games for whatever reason) are fairly concerning. This is the reason I’m slightly lower on him than the general consensus.
How much room Condon’s contact issues will have to breathe is going to depend on where he ends up playing defense. He played third base, first base, and all three outfield spots during his time at Georgia and could conceivably play all of them as a pro. Condon has rare bend for a player his size but below-average range at third. Where he is surprisingly skilled is in center field, where he’s great at reading balls hit over his head. His enormous strides give him a shot to have the range for center field even though he posts 40-grade run times from home to first. I think experimentation with his defense will be warranted in pro ball in part because I don’t anticipate Condon is going to just mash all the way through the minors; I expect he’ll be exposed somewhat and need to adjust once he reaches Double-A and above. He might even end up backing into defensive versatility that way, like a turbo-charged Matt Vierling who can play all four corner spots.
When’s he going to get to the Rockies and how good will he be once he’s there?
Multiple scouts have drawn comparisons between Condon and Kris Bryant. While of course Bryant’s tough few years with the Rockies have left a sour taste in the mind of fans, Bryant deservedly won the Rookie of the Year and NL MVP awards in his first two years as a big leaguer and has been an All-Star four times. Condon has the kind of offensive potential and defensive utility that could make him a star in the league for several years, so he deservedly ranks in this range in the PuRPs poll — he was number one on my list as a 60 FV player.
I think Condon will begin next year back at Spokane once he has a full off-season under his belt, with a mid-season jump to Double-A likely. There’s hope that Condon could be up with the Rockies as soon as two years after entering the system, though it’s worth giving him the time he needs to be an impact player when he gets to the Show.
★ ★ ★
1. Chase Dollander (1027 points, 35 ballots) — Preseason Ranking: 2 — High Ballot 1 (16), Mode Ballot 1
How did he enter the organization?
2023 1st Round, University of Tennessee
Why did he make the PuRPs list?
Dollander has clearly separated himself as one of the best pitching prospects the Rockies have ever had with a dominant 2024 minor league season. The 6’2”, 200 pound right-hander is now firmly planted in the top 50 of MLB prospects.
Entering the 2023 college season, scouts were split among whether Dollander or Paul Skenes was the top pitching prospect in the draft, with many giving the edge to Dollander after a year in which he had a 12.3 K/9 rate and 1.5 BB/9 rate with a 10-0 record at Tennessee. Dollander didn’t quite live up to those expectations in 2023, though a 4.75 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 12.1 K/9 rate, and 3.0 BB/9 rate in 89 innings across 17 starts in the SEC was hardly a disaster.
At his peak, the 22-year-old featured a fastball that sat in the mid-90s and touched the upper-90s, paired with a plus slider, an above average curveball, and change-up with strong control. As Keith Law of the Athletic mentioned in his pre-draft scouting report, Dollander tried to get better action on his slider and changed his motion in his draft year, lessening the impact of that pitch and causing a step back in results. That slight step back meant Dollander was still on the draft board when the Rockies picked ninth overall. He received a slot bonus of just over $5.7 million, which is among the highest bonus the Rockies have ever given.
Dollander was assigned to High-A Spokane this spring, where he was 1.2 years younger than league average. Even while prioritizing development and managing workload, Dollander blew Northwest League hitters away. In 70 innings across 14 starts, Dollander struck out 111 hitters (walking 28), which is a 14.3 K/9 rate, with a 2.83 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. Four of those starts saw Dollander punch out at least ten hitters and three of them were quality starts.
Dollander was selected to start the prestigious MLB Futures Game in July, where he pitched a scoreless inning. Travis Ice of Fangraphs filed this blurb on Dollander’s appearance:
FB: 95-97 CB: 75-76 CH: 89-90
Dollander faced five batters in his inning of work, four of whom were lefties. Dollander sat in his usual fastball range (95-97 mph) but didn’t throw his slider. Instead, he opted for throwing a few curveballs and fading changeups, both of which he had difficulty landing in the zone. His fastball command was spotty, but the pitch flashed notable carry up in the zone.
After the Futures Game, Dollander was bumped up to Double-A Hartford, where he is 2.5 years younger than league average. Double-A is often a steep challenge for players who put up big numbers in the low minors, but Dollander has continued to succeed. In six starts with Hartford, Dollander has a 1.69 ERA over 32 innings with a 1.00 WHIP, 10.7 K/9 rate, and 3.4 BB/9 rate, including two quality starts.
Here’s some video of Dollander from the Futures Game courtesy of Fangraphs, including a slo-mo look at his pitching motion at the end:
What do the scouts say?
Fangraphs ranks Dollander 18th overall, first in the system as a 55 FV player — highlighted by a 65 future grade on the fastball and a 60 future grade on the command:
Dollander sat 93-95 mph as a freshman at Georgia Southern, then started throwing harder as a sophomore after he transferred to Tennessee. Throughout 2022 and 2023, he sat 94-97 with riding life and would frequently top out in the 98-99 range. Out the gate in 2024, he’s been steady in the 95-96 range with plus riding life from a lower-than-average release point. Dollander’s hard cutter/slider looks more like the latter the deeper into games he pitches. As that pitch dips from the 87-89 mph range into the 84-86 mph band throughout a start, it tends to add length and have more typical slider shape. An upper-70s curveball and mid-80s changeup sit in the back seat together right now; each had less than 10% usage in 2022, and combined for just 14% usage in 2023. But both are quality pitches in their own right. We only saw the slower version of Dollander’s breaking ball in the 2024 Futures Game and it looked pretty good. He tends to bust his changuep out the third time through the order and it flashes bat-missing tail. He’s going to have to lean on those pitches more — Dollander’s fastball is good, but not so good that he’ll be able to deploy it 65-70% of the time (his 2023 and early 2024 marks) against big leaguers. Dollander’s arm speed portends changeup growth and, most importantly, his command is going to weaponize his entire repertoire, especially his fastball.
He’s only at High-A as of the start of the second half of the 2024 campaign, but he’s a more advanced strike-thrower than several of the big name prospects at Double- or Triple-A. In essence, Dollander does (or projects to do) everything well. He has plus fastball velocity and command, and the angle/movement traits you want in a power pitcher’s heater. He also has a plus breaking ball and offers reason to believe his changeup will eventually be good, too. Colorado’s fairly deliberate promotion pace (Chase is a year older than AJ Smith-Shawver but three levels behind him) has him tracking like a 2026 debut, which is slower than it needs to be.
MLB.com placed Dollander 23rd on their overall top 100 as a 55 FV player, second in Colorado’s system:
Dollander’s pure stuff was still pretty exciting during his junior season, with a fastball that averaged around 96 mph and touched 99, a heater with good carry that elicits a lot of swings-and-misses. His mid-80s tight slider can touch the low 90s and is often a plus pitch with sweep. He has a bigger mid-70s curve and an upper-80s changeup with fade, and both can be effective, even if they aren’t as reliable a go-to as the fastball-slider combination.
While Dollander didn’t walk a ton of guys as a junior, the command of his premium stuff, both in and out of the strike zone, regressed compared to his dominant sophomore campaign. He’s a good athlete on the mound and has shown the ability to repeat his delivery, with the hope that the Rockies can help him right the ship and use his frontline starter stuff more effectively as he embarks on his pro career.
That evaluation is highlighted by a 65 grade on the fastball, a 60 on the slider, and a 55 on the change-up.
Law recently ranked Dollander 47th overall for the Athletic. Here was his pre-season write-up on Dollander (second in the system):
Seldom has there been a better fit between a player in the draft and the team that took him. Dollander was the best pitcher in college baseball as a sophomore, with a 2.39 ERA for Tennessee that was built on a 35 percent strikeout rate, 4 percent walk rate, and a wipeout slider that looked like it would put him in play for the first-overall pick in 2023. Alas, he changed his grip on the slider to try to make it more of a sweeper — I have heard that he did it, Tennessee’s coaches did it, some third party told him to do it, and don’t really know the truth — making it not just worse but often ineffective, as he’d go entire starts without getting a swing and miss on it. The good news is that he’s aware of it and, with the Rockies’ help, the plan is to restore his 2022 slider, at which point they may have gotten a steal — the sort of high-end starter they need, someone who’s probably a No. 2 starter with some small but non-zero chance of becoming an ace.
He’s 93-97 mph and fills up the zone with it, touching 99, and if there’s a silver lining to the loss of his slider last year it’s that he used his changeup more, improving his feel to the point where it’s a solid-average third pitch for him. The slider was a legit 70 in 2022, with very tight rotation and late downward break, the opposite of sweep — and hey, I know the “sweeper” is all the rage right now, but traditional sliders are people too, right? I’m very hopeful that he’ll go out to High A to start the year and dominate between that out pitch and the control he’d shown before 2023, getting to Double-A Hartford by midyear and banging on the door of the big leagues.
Kiley McDaniel of ESPN.com ranked Dollander 15th in his pre-draft rankings and number 35 overall earlier this month as a 55 FV player. Here’s McDaniel on Dollander in the pre-season top 100, when Dollander was 93rd overall:
Type: Power fastball/breaking ball type who can be a midrotation type if he continues progressing
I’ve seen videos of Dollander when he was a senior in high school and I can tell you he shouldn’t have been on pro scouting radars. Then a solid mid-level Division-1 recruit, he looks completely different than he did two years later after he transferred from Georgia Southern to Tennessee. While a Volunteer for two seasons, Dollander torched the SEC, striking out 228 in 168 innings while walking only 43.
In his draft spring, I spotted a delivery issue and his stuff was a little more hittable — his locations were a little worse, and he was facing hitters hunting certain pitches for the first time. The core things were still there: a plus mid-90s fastball that works at the top of the zone, a plus-flashing slider and a curveball and changeup that flashed above average to go with good control and starter command upside.
As with most amateur power pitchers, his command execution comes and goes a bit, but the components are here to project average command. Now we’ll see if he can make some subtle tweaks and continue progressing in pro ball before having to tackle Coors Field.
When’s he going to get to the Rockies and how good will he be once he’s there?
So far, so good for Dollander’s development path I would say. He’s tracking as a top of the rotation starter who could (should) be at Coors Field with good health and a steady progression next year. He could start next year anywhere between Double-A and the big leagues, depending on how the next 6-7 months go. Unlike all the outfielders who join him in the top six of the system, there’s no doubt the Rockies will have playing time for a pitcher as talented as Dollander.
I love that Colorado picked a player with this kind of ceiling and ranked Dollander second on my list as a 55 FV player because of the combination of pedigree, stuff, polish, and performance.
★ ★ ★
Thanks to everyone who has read along with me through this PuRPs series! Check back soon for a complete list with full voting results for the mid-season 2024 Purple Row Prospect list and then my view on the state of the system.