Five position players make the next cut
We’re entering the mid-point of the mid-season 2024 Purple Row Prospects (PuRPs) list. Previously we had PuRPs 30-26 and 25-21; today we head into the top 20. As a reminder, in this edition of the PuRPs poll, 35 ballots were cast, with 30 points granted for a first place vote, 29 for second, etc.
For each player on the PuRPs list, I’ll include a link to individual stats and contract status (via Baseball-Reference), PuRPs voting stats, a note on the 2024 season to date, and a scouting report from a national prospect writer where possible. For what it’s worth, I’ll also include where I put each player on my personal ballot. All ages are as of the date the article is posted.
20. Jared Thomas (372 points, 32 ballots) — Preseason Ranking: NR — High Ballot 12, Mode Ballot 25
How did he enter the organization?
2024 2nd Round, University of Texas
Why did he make the PuRPs list?
Thomas went 42nd overall to the Rockies as a draft-eligible sophomore, signing for an under-slot $2 million. He got that bonus due to excellent bat-to-ball skills, some emerging power, and above-average speed that gives him a high floor offensively. The 21-year-old, 6’2” lefty spent most of his time defensively at Texas playing first base, but he clearly profiles as an outfielder as a professional — in center or in left.
After a freshman year where he hit a strong .321/.398/.484, Thomas traded some contact for power for his draft year. Though his strikeouts increased from 15% to 21% of his plate appearances, Thomas also saw his home runs quadruple from 4 to 16 — a part of an increase in slugging percentage of 151 points. His 2024 college line in 291 PA was .349/.435/.635 with 35 extra-base-hits, and he was a perfect 18/18 on steals.
Once he signed, Thomas went to Low-A Fresno, where he is 1.1 years younger than league average. So far, he has an excellent .333/.389/.546 line with two homers in 36 PA, good for a 146 wRC+ while playing in the outfield.
Here’s some video of Thomas playing in Minute Maid Park in Houston earlier this year:
What do the scouts say?
MLB.com, who ranked Thomas 60th in their draft rankings, slot Thomas 12th in the org as a 45 FV player with a 60 Field and 55 Hit grade:
Thomas has good feel for the barrel and doesn’t try to do too much at the plate, letting his pretty left-handed swing work for him. He traded some contact for power this spring, hitting the ball harder and showing that he should be able to provide 15-20 homers per season. He offers one of the higher floors among college bats, and his ceiling continues to rise as he displays more pop.
To complement his hitting ability, Thomas offers several other promising tools. He’s a solid runner and quicker once he gets going, though he’s not much of a basestealer. He provides a plus glove at first base and also is a solid defender with arm strength to match in center field.
Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs had Thomas 48th among draft prospects, then ranked him 29th in the system as a 40 FV player:
Draft-eligible soph, .336/.418/.565 career line at Texas with 18% strikeouts. Ideal baseball frame at a super projectable 6-foot-2. Has above-average power to both gaps and is going to grow into more. Dynamic low-ball swing plays best when Thomas’ bat path is vertical; it tends to be too long when he has to flatten it out to catch fastballs away from him. Power can be neutered in the down-and-away part of the strike zone. Average college contact rates will likely translate to below-average in pro ball barring the shortening up of Thomas’ swing. Might grow into enough power for that to be alright. Has played center field, left field, and first base. Reads in the outfield are not very good and his arm forces him to left only unless that improves. Only has the two years of college experience, so it’s worth a shot to continue things in center for at least a little while. Realistic ceiling as a power-over-hit 1B/LF platoon bat, needs more projection to see it than some of the other college hitters in the class.
Keith Law of the Athletic ranked Thomas 80th before the draft and had this to say after the draft about Thomas:
Outfielder Jared Thomas (2) of Texas lowered his hands a little bit this year and started squaring the ball up far more often, hitting the ball in the air more and going from four homers to 16. He did start expanding the zone more this year than he had as a freshman (he’s a draft-eligible sophomore) and will have to cut that back down as he moves to the high minors. He’s a 55 runner with a chance to stay up the middle.
When’s he going to get to the Rockies and how good will he be once he’s there?
It’s hard not to compare Thomas at least a little with fellow PuRP Sterlin Thompson (see below) as lefty college hitters taken in the first 50 picks with a hit over power profile. Thomas has more defensive utility, though in my eyes Thompson has better bat-to-ball skills — which is why he’s a 40+ FV player to me while Thomas is near the top of the 40 FV tier, 25th on my list.
If Thomas keeps hitting well for the rest of the season at Fresno, I see no reason why the Rockies wouldn’t try him at High-A Spokane to start next year. Especially if his game power continues to grow, Thomas could make his way up the ladder in less than three years.
★ ★ ★
19. Ryan Ritter (412 points, 34 ballots) — Preseason Ranking: 25 — High Ballot 9, Mode Ballot 22
How did he enter the organization?
2022 4th Round, University of Kentucky
Why did he make the PuRPs list?
Ritter pairs strong defensive utility with better than expected offensive performance so far as a pro. The 6’2” 23-year-old shortstop was known as a college prospect for his elite defense, but the righty also hit a respectable .283/.369/.469 in the SEC. The Rockies drafted Ritter in 2022’s fourth round and signed him for a slightly over-slot $530k bonus.
Ritter was assigned in 2023 to Low-A Fresno (in deference to Adael Amador in High-A). In 295 PA with Fresno, Ritter proved he had mastered the level with a .305/.405/.606 line that included 18 homers as part of his 35 extra-base hits (162 wRC+) in just 65 games. In fact, this stretch was so impressive that Ritter was named the MVP of the California League despite not playing the league after July 2nd. Amador’s late-June injury (and Ritter’s performance) paved the way for an early-July promotion to High-A Spokane.
In 201 PA across 46 games, all three triple slash categories cooled down a bit to a still respectable .265/.367/.441 batting line with six homers (121 wRC+) at a league average age. That’s more than respectable for an up-the-middle player, so the Rockies promoted Ritter again in early September for a late-season cameo with Double-A Hartford (he was 4-for-25 with 11 strikeouts).
It was a very successful season offensively for Ritter, but there were valid concerns about his ability to make contact against upper level pitching. While he struck out in about 24% of his Low-A plate appearances, that number rose to 34% in High-A and 38% in Double-A.
This season, Ritter was sent back to Hartford, where he is 0.6 years younger than league average, and has addressed some of those questions. He has reduced his strikeouts to 24.5% of his 318 PA and Ritter’s .286/.389/.431 line with six HR among his 25 XBH and 17 steals in 17 attempts totals a 136 wRC+. He’s been the primary shortstop for a winning Hartford club, committing 11 errors in 74 games, though he’s been on the IL since late July.
Here’s some video of Ritter hitting in the Cape Cod league (during college):
What do the scouts say?
MLB.com classifies Ritter as a 45 FV prospect with plus grades on his arm and fielding ability, and ranks him 13th in the system:
Nothing has changed in terms of what people think Ritter can do defensively. He should be able to play shortstop for a long time with an excellent combination of athleticism and instincts. He has outstanding actions and field awareness with a plus arm that can make throws from anywhere.
At Kentucky, Ritter never got to a point where he was consistently impacting the baseball, even though there was raw power waiting to be unlocked. There were glimpses during his pro debut in the Arizona Complex League, but it was all to his pull side and the Rockies have worked with him to formulate more of an approach at the plate to drive the ball to the right-center-field gap, especially on fastballs, which in turn is helping him recognize spin more consistently. He’s incorporating the athleticism seen at shortstop into the batter’s box with positive outcomes. If he can continue his transition from swinger to hitter, he has the chance to be more than just a utility-type at the highest level.
Longenhagen of Fangraphs is more of a doubter, consigning Ritter to the “Toolsy Guys onf the Fringe” section in his system ranking:
Ritter, currently at Hartford, looks like he can play shortstop in most situations except when a play needs to be made quickly, which occurs a lot at the major league level. He has a 30 hit tool and 40 power.
Law ranked Ritter 20th in his pre-season system commentary:
Ritter was too old for Low A, where he started 2023, and couldn’t carry his huge performance there forward to High A or Double A. He hit a composite .251/.355/.410 at the two higher levels, a better indicator of the player he is. He’s a very dependable shortstop who could stay there if the bat supported him becoming a regular, with some experience at second in the minors. He’s not likely to hit for average but has a little speed and a little pop plus the positional value of the middle infield, enough to be a utility infielder.
When’s he going to get to the Rockies and how good will he be once he’s there?
Ritter’s defensive floor high enough that he doesn’t need to be an impact offensive player to be a useful big leaguer. Add in his plate discipline improvements this year plus a strong overall offensive performance at an upper minors level and you get a 40 FV player who I ranked 23rd in the system. There are still valid concerns that Ritter’s approach at the plate won’t work against high level pitching, but he’s slowly dispelling those.
Ritter seems poised for an elevation to Triple-A next year (I think he’ll supplant Julio Carreras), with a big league role perhaps not too far behind as Ritter enters his 40-man roster evaluation season.
★ ★ ★
18. Dyan Jorge (414 points, 34 ballots) — Preseason Ranking: 9 — High Ballot 10, Mode Ballot 13, 17, 19
How did he enter the organization?
2022 International Free Agent, Cuba
Why did he make the PuRPs list?
Jorge, who signed in January 2022 out of Cuba, received a $2.8 million bonus from the Rockies — the largest such bonus they’ve ever handed out to a Latin American amateur free agent. The 6’3”, 170-pound 21-year-old shortstop is an athletic player with high upside that is a likely up the middle defender with good bat speed.
Upon signing, Jorge had a successful Dominican Summer League debut in 2022, then he came stateside for 2023. In June, Jorge started his season with the complex league team, hitting .370/.495/.644 with 11 extra-base hits in 94 PA (178 wRC+). That was clear-enough domination for the Rockies to bump Jorge up to Low-A Fresno in July, where he was 1.1 years younger than average. In 215 PA for Fresno, Jorge posted a .283/.322/.338 line with 11 doubles and ten steals (82 wRC+).
This year, Jorge has played for High-A Spokane, where he is 1.5 years younger than league average. Jorge’s speed has come through (30 for 38 in steals), but his lack of power (only 2 HR, both in the same game) limits his offensive impact to a .267/.339/.322 line in 474 PA, good for a 91 wRC+. Jorge has mostly handled shortstop (17 errors in 84 games) with 19 appearances at second base (one error).
Here’s some video of Jorge in Fresno last year, including a slo-mo look at the swing:
What do the scouts say?
Fangraphs gave Jorge a 40+ FV grade in April, which is 18th in the system — highlighted by 55 grades on his raw power and speed:
As most Cuban signees do even though they’re often a little older, Jorge spent his first pro season in the DSL for tax purposes. At age 20, he was a bit old for his 2023 complex-level assignment and torched pitching there. I got overzealous and prematurely elevated Jorge, who has immense physical projection and a body in the Fernando Tatis Jr. mold, into the back of the Top 100.
As he’s been promoted to full-season affiliates some of his issues have become more apparent. He’s more smooth than explosive and doesn’t have the arm strength or range to comfortably project at shortstop, though he does have the flexibility and actions. His inside-out swing makes it difficult for Jorge to turn on anything and it might be tough for him to actualize whatever power he grows into because of the way his mechanics work. His bat-to-ball track record has been impressive even though his swing is atypical. I’m skeptical that will continue, but I’m still sky high on Jorge’s long-term power projection because of his build. I’d like to see him tried in center field and will be keyed to identify a swing change if the Rockies make one. College hitters with this kind of profile tend to be third and fourth round prospects — they’re not fully-actualized baseball players but they have rare physical ability or projection, and that’s how Jorge is graded here.
Jorge slots in at 16 in the MLB.com system list as a 45 FV player:
Long and lean, Jorge has shown a good feel for finding the barrel, with an approach that speaks to him being a bit more seasoned than many young players because of his time with the Cuban national team. He has a solid line-drive approach and can work counts and draw walks, but there hadn’t been too much impact in the early stages of his career. He’s starting to show little flashes of added strength and came to the Rockies’ high performance camp to continue to work in that area, though the hope is he won’t start trying to hunt for power. There is some leverage in his swing, so a little might come naturally.
Jorge has good speed and instincts, which make him a dangerous asset on the basepaths. He also should be able to play shortstop for a very long time thanks to his agility and instincts, to go along with a solid arm, good footwork and steady hands. The ingredients are there for him to be a starting shortstop in the big leagues, with how much offensive impact he grows into key to determining his ceiling.
Law of the Athletic listed Jorge 10th in his February org look:
Jorge’s an above-average defensive shortstop who needs to get a lot stronger as a hitter to be more than a utility infielder. He doesn’t punch out but he doesn’t punch anything else either, with a ground-ball rate over 50 percent in Low A last year and a total line of .283/.322/.338. His swing gets long and slow because he doesn’t have enough present strength to generate bat speed, and he is way too aggressive at the plate even if you ignore the strength issue. He does have everyday upside, probably a solid 50, because of the defense and his ability to at least put the ball in play, but he needs to start packing on some more muscle.
Kiley McDaniel of ESPN.com ranked Jorge 4th in the system and 155th overall as a 45+ FV player before the season:
Jorge is a classic long, lanky, smooth shortstop prospect with all the tools and physical projection to imagine more coming. He has played only 49 games in full-season ball, but he has already shown above-average bat-to-ball ability, pitch selection and power potential, though he doesn’t lift the ball much at the moment.
When’s he going to get to the Rockies and how good will he be once he’s there?
A clear point of disagreement between the above scouts is their view of Jorge’s ability to develop game power. Those who believe he’s on track have him as a top-10 system player while those who don’t place him 5-10 slots lower. Purple Row voters are on the skeptical side, while I was one of the higher votes, ranking Jorge 13th on my ballot as a 45 FV player. I believe in the upside and am comforted that his up-the-middle defensive utility raises the ceiling on the profile.
Jorge still has another two full seasons before his Rule 5 eligibility deadline, so it wouldn’t surprise me if the Rockies returned him to Spokane next year to help maximize the chances that he turns into a big league up the middle regular.
★ ★ ★
17. Sterlin Thompson (496 points, 34 ballots) — Preseason Ranking: 5 — High Ballot 8, Mode Ballot 11
How did he enter the organization?
2023 1st Round, University of Florida
Why did he make the PuRPs list?
Fair or not, Thompson’s progress will be judged in part by Rockies fans by the fact his draft pick (31st overall in 2022) was the only compensation Colorado received for Trevor Story leaving in free agency, instead of a widely-assumed deadline trade. Thompson signed for a slot bonus of just over $2.43 million as a productive draft-eligible sophomore college hitter from the SEC. The 23-year-old 6’4” lefty hitter, right-handed thrower split time between second base and the outfield in college at Florida, but as a professional he’s played everywhere but shortstop and catcher — none with any particular distinction. This year, he’s been mostly a left fielder, with first base the secondary option.
Thompson was assigned to High-A Spokane to begin 2023. He missed all of May with an injury, but when he was on the field, Thompson was mashing. He hit .323/.399/.520 with seven homers among his 30 extra-base hits and 14 steals in 263 PA for Spokane (146 wRC+). The Rockies promoted Thompson to Double-A Hartford in August, where he was 1.7 years younger than league average. Upper-minors pitching slowed down Thompson, as he compiled a .238/.333/.429 line with seven homers and three steals with a 22% K rate in 144 PA at the level (111 wRC+).
Thompson was then assigned to the Arizona Fall League and bounced back offensively, hitting .338/.460/.475 with nine extra base hits in 80 PA. He split time between second base and the outfield defensively.
This year, Thompson went back to Hartford, where he is 0.6 years younger than average. Thompson hasn’t been bad offensively, as his .251/.324/.399 line with 12 HR among his 30 XBH and 12/15 steals translates to an above average 106 wRC+, but it’s below where he was last year and certainly below expectations for fans and scouts alike. What will sound familiar to Rockies fans are Thompson’s home/road splits — his .815 home OPS is well above his anemic .608 road OPS. Thompson has committed seven errors this year, including two in his only game at second base, but he’s mostly been fine in left field (four errors in 66 games).
Here’s some video of Thompson hitting in the 2023 AFL, including some slo-mo looks at the swing at the end:
What do the scouts say?
MLB.com had Thompson ranked 29th in the draft and place him 14th in the system as a 45 FV player (as a 1B/OF) with a 50 hit tool:
The left-handed-hitting Thompson has a nice package of approach, gameplan, pitch recognition and swing mechanics that have led to success pretty much wherever he’s been. He likes to use the whole field, showing extra-base thump and consistently hard contact. He definitely has the bat speed and strength to eventually forecast 15-20 homers a year without selling out for power.
Thompson has bounced around quite a bit defensively since joining the Rockies. He’s manned both outfield corners, as well as third and second base, and he’s even tinkered a little bit at first. He’s probably at his best and most athletic in an outfield corner if he were to settle into one spot, but there have been times when he’s been capable, albeit less than smooth, at making plays at second. The keystone and the outfield corners will probably be his focal points moving forward, but there’s comfort in knowing there’s some flexibility as to where they can get his bat into a big league lineup when he’s ready.
Fangraphs ranked Thompson 46th among draft prospects and slotted him as a 45 FV player back in April, currently 7th in the system, as a first baseman as the defensive evaluation is not optimistic:
Thompson is a left-handed Miguel Vargas of sorts. He has lovely looking hitting hands but not the power typical of peers at the positions he can play. A career .298/.373/.478 hitter, Thompson was another of the many exciting bats who began 2023 at High-A Spokane and ended it at Double-A Hartford or beyond. He does not miss mistakes anywhere near the middle of the zone and sprays fastballs to both gaps, with Thompson most able to do extra-base damage by ambushing pullable pitches on the inner half. He tends to expand the zone and chase considerably more with two strikes, but in general Thompson is a skilled left-handed hitter to the eye. His underlying data mostly supports this, as his overall contact rate approached 80% in 2023.
Thompson played second base and the outfield at Florida and had mostly played third and some 2B/OF as a pro before 2024, but since the end of spring training, he has split time between first base and left field, and he’s more of a spray doubles hitter than the sort of thumper who is ideal at those spots. He’s listed at 6-foot-3, 200 pounds but is rather slight of build. Can he still get stronger? One of the positives of Thompson’s pre-draft profile was that he was young for a college prospect, and he’s still just 22 as of list publication and already at Double-A. Limited power would mean Thompson’s hit tool would need to be Daniel Murphyesque in order for him to be a foundational piece, and I don’t have it projected to be quite that excellent. It’s important for Thompson to find another gear of power in his mid-20s. Still, I like his bat enough to consider him a strong side corner platoon guy or even just a 1.5 WAR everyday first baseman very similar to Nolan Schanuel.
Keith Law of the Athletic ranked Thompson atop the system (as a OF/IF), ranking him 70th overall in MLB pre-season:
[Thompson] arrived in pro ball as an advanced hitter from the University of Florida with an uncertain positional profile. The Rockies have moved him around the diamond a bunch, trying him at third and second while giving him some time in the outfield, although in the end it’s his bat that will carry him. Thompson might have a true plus hit tool already, with a pretty simple swing and excellent bat speed, rotating his hips enough to get to at least average power, and he’s shown he can hit left-handed pitching so far in pro ball. He’s best in an outfield corner who has shown he can make the routine plays at second or third to give him some versatility and open up more paths to the majors. There was concern when he was an amateur that he’d have to play first base and might not have the power to profile there; I don’t think either of those things is true at this point, especially not the positional questions, as he’s fine in the outfield and looks like he’ll at least have the average/doubles power to be a strong regular there. He should see the majors at some point this year and could very quickly become the Rockies’ best hitter for average.
ESPN.com ranked Thompson 9th in the system as a 45 FV player (RF defensively) pre-season:
Thompson has dabbled at second and third base along with both corner outfield spots, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he tries some first base soon. He’s a solid hitter with 20-ish home run potential and a feel for lifting the ball, so he has low-end every-day upside.
When’s he going to get to the Rockies and how good will he be once he’s there?
In Thompson, I see a hit-over-power prospect with uncertain defensive utility (there’s a lot of variance in the above scouting reports on this point) where the hit tool will need to carry him up the prospect ladder. Thompson appears to be a particularly good version of this prospect profile (he’s got decent raw power too) and the hit tool is the most important one, but it certainly is a narrower path to success than I would like.
The lack of progression this year in Double-A is concerning too, which is why Thompson is only a 40+ FV player for me, 17th on my list. I can envision Thompson as an option for the Rockies as soon as next year if he can seize an opportunity.
★ ★ ★
16. Benny Montgomery (514 points, 35 ballots) — Preseason Ranking: 8 — High Ballot 8, Mode Ballot 16, 19
How did he enter the organization?
2021 1st Round, Red Land (PA) High School
Why did he make the PuRPs list?
The eighth-overall pick in the 2021 draft, as evaluated by scouts, possesses three plus tools (run, arm, field) with above-average power and athleticism that should keep the righty in center field defensively. The 6’5”, 200-pound 21-year-old gave scouts pause at draft time with a big hitch in his swing that the Rockies are trying to clean up. Still, the rest of the profile led the Rockies to give Montgomery a slightly under-slot $5 million bonus.
After an injury-marred 2022 where he played just 64 games, Montgomery was assigned to High-A Spokane for 2023 (where he was 2.4 years younger than average). He stayed relatively healthy that year, playing 109 games with Spokane and hitting .251/.336/.370 in 497 PA with 10 homers among his 30 extra-base hits and 18 steals (95 wRC+). A late-July outfield collision caused a knee injury that no doubt contributed to Montgomery’s flagging second-half production (.530 OPS in August, .632 in September).
Montgomery’s overall 27% K-rate (vs. 11% BB) was also worrisome, but I choose to accentuate the fact that he was about average offensively as one of the youngest players in the league while playing mostly center field (three errors in 85 defensive games).
The Rockies then sent Montgomery to the Arizona Fall League, where he impressed offensively, hitting .333/.436/.500 with three homers in 94 PA. In Thomas Harding’s AFL profile on Montgomery from October, Rockies minor league hitting coordinator Nic Wilson described the focus for Montgomery to elevate the ball more by improving the timing of his mechanics to leverage the increased strength he’s built as a pro.
This year, Montgomery was off to Double-A Hartford, where he is 2.6 years younger than league average. He was off to a hot start, hitting .283/.313/.500 with two homers and three steals (good for a 125 wRC+) in his first 48 plate appearances (albeit with 20 strikeouts). Unfortunately Montgomery sustained a shoulder injury that required season-ending surgery while diving for a ball just 11 games into his season. It’s a shame for Montgomery, who could have set himself apart from the outfield prospect mob if his breakout had continued.
Here’s some video of Montgomery in the 2023 AFL, including some slo-mo looks at the swing in the last couple minutes:
What do the scouts say?
Montgomery is ranked 17th as a 45 FV player by MLB.com:
Still only 21 years old for the 2024 season, Montgomery has already done a lot of maturing, both physically and mentally. He’s put his Draft status in the rearview mirror and now has a firmer understanding of what he needs to do to be successful. He showed up to Spring Training with about 20 pounds of good weight added. That should lead to even more power, though his unorthodox mechanics at the plate still lead some to worry about him making enough contact to get to it. His strikeout rate hovered around 27 percent for the second straight year, but his walk rate did tick upward to help offset that and he’s shown tremendous raw power to all fields.
Montgomery’s speed plays on both sides of the ball and the added strength could make him even more explosive. There’s no question he can play center field with plenty of arm, but he’ll get reps in all three outfield spots to keep options open. There’s so much potential to unlock here, and if Montgomery can continue to work on being just a little more efficient, he could be a dynamic everyday guy in the big leagues.
That evaluation is headlined by a 70 speed grade but Montgomery also gets 60 grades on his arm and fielding ability as well as a 55 for power.
Fangraphs ranks Montgomery as a 40 FV player who is 27th in the org:
Montgomery was a relatively divisive amateur prospect who became even more polarizing after his pro debut. The Pennsylvania high schooler was one of the toolsier prep players available, a big-framed center field prospect with rare athleticism and power projection, and fair batted ball showcase performance for a cold weather guy. Detractors were scared of how cacophonous Montgomery’s swing was and thought he’d need an overhaul to hit at all in pro ball. Model-driven teams rounded down on Montgomery because he was nearly 19 on draft day. Even though Montgomery’s swing was odd, he still put balls in play at a pretty good rate against his elite peers. The Rockies picked him eighth overall. Montgomery had a big first full season on paper (.313/.394/.502) aided by a .419 BABIP and the hitting environment in the Cal League, but he K’d at an alarming rate. That carried into 2023, when Benny’s output dipped closer to league average.
I don’t see how this is going to work in an everyday capacity unless Montgomery’s swing changes. His hands are incredibly noisy and active in a couple different directions while the ball is in flight, and I fear he’s going to be very strikeout-prone now that he’s reached the upper minors. He still runs well enough to be developed in center field and should be fine there if he can refine his ball skills, which have looked raw in the past but have been better early in 2024. He needs to take another step forward as a defender in order to hit this projection, but I have Montgomery in as a Jake Marisnick/Keon Broxton type of reserve outfielder.
The evaluation is highlighted by a 70 speed and 60 arm grade.
Law of the Athletic ranked Montgomery 28th in his pre-draft rankings and ranked him 8th in the system pre-season:
Montgomery’s as toolsy as anyone in the system, a fast-twitch guy with speed and enough hand strength to drive the ball the other way, but his approach at the plate still has too many holes to see him hitting major-league pitching consistently. He’s always had a hitch in his swing, leaving him vulnerable to fastballs up and in, and he still has trouble with breaking stuff moving away from him. He is using the whole field more now than he has in the past, with hard contact to all fields when he does get the bat to the ball. He struck out 27 percent of the time in High A last year as a 20-year-old, however, and that makes it seem unlikely he’s going to get to everyday status, even with his doubles power and potential for above-average defense in center.
When’s he going to get to the Rockies and how good will he be once he’s there?
Montgomery possesses a star-level ceiling who will likely stick in center field with a MLB ETA of late next year or so (as he approaches his Rule 5 eligibility). I expect Montgomery to spend a good portion of the year in Double-A roaming center field to prove his health and the efficacy of any adjustments he’s making to his approach during rehab.
The scouting reports about Montgomery’s hit tool have me concerned and the injuries in 2022 and this year mean he hasn’t gotten the professional reps a player with his development path needs. I’m enough of a believer in the ceiling to rank Montgomery 16th on my list in the 40+ FV tier, acknowledging both his star potential and the risk relating from the path he has to MLB generally and his swing change needs specifically.
★ ★ ★
Tomorrow we’ll enter the top half of the mid-season 2024 PuRPs list!