The right-hander was the Rockies’ first pick in 2022, but lost half of 2023 and all of 2024 to Tommy John surgery
11. Gabriel Hughes (534 points, 28 ballots)
Hughes is another Colorado Rockies pitching prospect who was felled by an arm injury that required Tommy John surgery in July 2023 (along with Jordy Vargas and Jackson Cox). The 6’4” 23-year-old right-hander was Colorado’s first pick in 2022, going 10th overall and getting an under-slot $4 million bonus. Hughes was ranked more as a late-first rounder than a top-10 pick by national prospect watchers, but the Rockies obviously liked the starter’s frame, feel for pitching and the three pitch mix. The former two-way player has a fastball that sits in the low-mid 90s and a bulldog mentality that has been compared to Max Scherzer (you can see some of that in the video below).
After a cameo appearance at the end of 2022 with Low-A Fresno, Hughes began his professional career in earnest in 2023 with High-A Spokane, near his old college stomping grounds of Gonzaga. Against hitters that were on average 2.1 years older than him, Hughes threw 37 2⁄3 innings across eight starts with a 5.50 ERA (3.48 xFIP), 1.20 WHIP, 12.9 K/9 rate, and 3.6 BB/9 rate. The xFIP and high K/9 rate indicate better stuff than the raw results delivered, and the Rockies agreed by promoting Hughes to Double-A Hartford in early June.
Hughes was 3.4 years younger than the Eastern League average, but he mostly held his own, even if the ERA didn’t bear that out. In 29 innings over six starts, Hughes had a 7.14 ERA but a 4.06 xFIP with a 1.55 WHIP, 9.0 K/9 rate, and 3.4 BB/9 rate for Hartford. It was a good first full professional season for Hughes, but unfortunately it ended due to the injury that necessitated Tommy John surgery.
Hughes rehabbed the injury throughout the 2024 season but was able to make Colorado’s Arizona Fall League roster. He started six games, throwing 17 1⁄3 innings with a 8.31 ERA, 1.73 WHIP, 7.3 K/9 rate, and 5.2 BB/9 rate. The numbers weren’t impressive, but scouts at the AFL reported his stuff had largely returned post-surgery and he was working on developing his breaking balls.
Here’s some video on Hughes from 2024 instructs and the AFL courtesy of Fangraphs:
In the report accompanying the above video last month, Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs graded Hughes as a 45 FV player, seventh in the system:
Hughes looked incredible out of the gate in 2023 and even dominated the Dodgers’ big league lineup during a spring training game, but by July he was running an ERA well over 6.00, sitting 91-92 mph, and needed Tommy John. Hughes returned during the fall of 2024 and pitched during instructs and in the Arizona Fall League and looked fine.
Hughes attacks with a 93-94 mph fastball that often has a little bit of natural cut. His breaking stuff has plateaued; his 85-88 mph slider/cutter is average and lives off of his command, while his 79-82 mph curveball is well below average. Toss out Hughes’ surface-level AFL stats because he was clearly working on this curveball a ton during that stretch. His changeup, a tailing upper-80s offering, is getting better and might be his best pitch at peak. It often has enough tail to run off the front hip of lefty batters and back into the zone. Hughes’ prototypical size, athleticism, and arm action augur more changeup growth, as well as strikes and efficient innings. Hughes won’t be dominant, and I’m perhaps not appreciating how homer prone he’ll be sitting 93 in Colorado, but he should work efficiently and eat innings enough to be a team’s no. 4/5 starter during the regular season.
John Trupin of Baseball Prospectus ranked Hughes 15th in their recent system ranking:
At his healthiest, Hughes has looked like an efficient, mid-rotation workhorse, befitting his 10th overall selection in the 2022 draft. That’s meant low to mid-90s fastballs and a medley of off-speed that all plays up thanks to plus command. That all evaporated in mid-2023, as Hughes saw his velocity and stuff fall off, a sure sign of concerns that led ultimately to the surgeon’s table. Out recovering and rehabbing all of 2024, Hughes can hopefully return to the mound in full in 2025. He’ll have plenty of company in the rehabbing circuit, with several of the most promising arms in the system making their way back from TJ alongside him. His physicality and athleticism is encouraging in spite of the surgery, as the 6-foot-4 righty has the frame to flesh out a more durable existence.
Keith Law of the Athletic recently listed Hughes as a player of note:
[Hughes] pitched in the AFL but it wasn’t great, as his command was way off and he gave up too many walks and hard contact. He’s fastball/slider and pitches with such energy that it might be a better fit for him to move to the bullpen if the command doesn’t improve with another offseason of rest.
MLB.com ranked Hughes 22nd on the system list as a 40 FV player during the 2024 season:
When he’s healthy, Hughes brings an intriguing combination of size and stuff — with feel for it — to the mound. Even right before the elbow injury in Double-A last year, he was up to 97 mph with his fastball, though he sat at around 93. His short and hard mid-80s slider, that has cutter-like action to it, flashes plus and he’s shown feel to spin an effective upper-70s curve as well. He has an 87-88 mph changeup as well, but it’s clearly a fourth pitch.
Hughes uses an up-tempo delivery and goes right after hitters. He can sometimes run into timing issues and there’s unintentional cut on his fastball occasionally, and both can impact his command, though he’s generally around the strike zone.
The evaluation is headlined by a 60 fastball grade with a 55 on the slider and 50s on the change and control.
Hughes was ranked 10th in the system by ESPN.com, albeit without further commentary.
Hughes is a starting pitcher prospect with good upside and pedigree, though he probably won’t be a star. He’ll likely return to Double-A Hartford in 2025 to build up innings against upper minors hitters, with a big-league promotion possible late in the year should performance and circumstances dictate it — he’ll be Rule 5 eligible after this season. Hughes represents a higher floor but lower ceiling when compared to fellow July 2023 TJ surgery patient Jordy Vargas, but both rank as 45 FV players for me and Hughes slotted right behind Vargas on my ballot, 11th overall.