The third baseman had a stellar 2024 that included a Northwest League MVP Award and championship-winning HBP
12. Kyle Karros (507 points, 27 ballots)
Karros is indeed the son of noted Rockies-killer Eric (career line .320/.380/.619 against Colorado) — and he had a breakout 2024 to the point where he earned a non-roster invite to spring training this year. The 22-year-old 6’5” righty-hitting third baseman signed for a slot bonus of $433.5k after a junior season in 2023 where he hit .284/.372/.420 with five homers in 199 PA for UCLA, his dad’s alma mater.
After signing, Karros was initially assigned to the Arizona Complex League team, where he hit .327/.450/.408 (130 wRC+) in 60 PA. He was promoted to Low-A Fresno, where he hit .259/.365/.284 with just two extra-base hits in 96 PA (90 wRC+). That wasn’t a standout line, but the Rockies liked what they saw enough to send Karros to High-A in 2024, where he was 1.4 years younger than league average.
In Spokane, Karros was a star offensively from the start, getting named the Northwest League player of the month in April — and that wasn’t even his best month by OPS (he had a .973 OPS in April, a 1.054 OPS in July, and a 1.033 OPS in September). Karros led the Northwest League in all of the BA/OBP/SLG categories as well as RBI, hits, extra-base hits, total bases, and doubles. That was certainly enough to win Karros the Northwest League MVP award. Beyond that, Karros was stellar on defense, earning a Gold Glove when evaluated against all other minor league third basemen. He even drove in the walk-off championship game winning run for Spokane (though it was a HBP).
As for the stats that won those awards, Karros hit .311/.390/.485 with 15 HR and 35 other XBH (33 doubles) with 12 steals in 17 attempts in 539 plate appearances, good for a 145 wRC+. Those 15 homers bested the entire output Karros had in his three-year college career. He walked in 10% of his PA and struck out in 23%. In 116 games at third, Karros committed 10 errors but obviously impressed with his defense.
Last week, Purple Row’s Joelle Milholm wrote about the magical season Karros had in 2024 and why the Rockies kept him at the level all season.
Here are some of Karros’ 2023 highlights at UCLA:
If Keith Law were a PuRPs voter, he’d have been the high ballot on Karros, ranking him 3rd in the system as a player who just missed the top 100 overall:
[Karros’s] average, OBP, and slugging for Spokane in 2024 were all better than any single-season result he had at UCLA. Part of the change is that he started driving the ball the other way more often, going with the pitch rather than trying to pull pitches on the outer half or third. He also became more aggressive as a hitter, swinging more often, trading more whiffs for more extra-base hits; he hit eight doubles in 44 games as a college junior, then hit 33 doubles in 123 games last year in Spokane.
He led the Northwest League in all three triple-slash stats, and could have gone to Double-A Hartford by midsummer, although the Rockies wanted him to stick with Spokane as they pushed for the league title. He’s a plus defender at third with great instincts on both sides of the ball. His OBP does mask some of his pitch recognition issues — he doesn’t chase a ton, but when he does, he almost never connects, especially with offspeed stuff, and getting him to understand what pitches he can and can’t reach with his long arms is going to be his main developmental challenge. He could be an above-average regular if he does, given the defense and the potential for 40-50 doubles with double-digit homers.
John Trupin of Baseball Prospectus ranked Karros 14th in their recent system ranking:
A swing adjustment for the 6-foot-5, 225 Karros could not have had a much more resonant endorsement than going .311/.390/.485 for a 131 DRC+ with quite pleasing strikeout and walk rates in the Northwest League at age 21. With a shortened, simplified swing, the son of former Dodgers standout Eric is now accessing his power more consistently by, at least to the eye, focusing slightly more on contact over bat speed. While this is counterintuitive to some degree, for a player like Karros whose raw power is prodigious thanks to his physicality, a max-effort swing is not essential. That’s not to say Karros cannot whip his bat through the zone, however by shortening his path to the ball, his other skills have shone through. His leggy, loping gait looks at times like a giraffe testing its legs for the second or third time, however it is effective. Karros’ strong arm and athletic movements helped him put together an extremely impressive defensive showcase at the hot corner.
As a counter-balance to the above two reports, Karros is just a 35+ FV player for Eric Longenhagen at Fangraphs, ranking 38th in the system with a plus grade on his arm and a future plus grade on fielding:
[Karros] hit .311/.390/.485 in his first full season, another of the Rockies’ recent college draftees who put up monster numbers at hitter-friendly Spokane in 2024. Karros is very likely not that good a hitter. He’s a stiff-legged athlete whose upright manner of swinging leaves him very vulnerable to secondary stuff at the bottom of the zone. Karros’ carrying tool is his third base defense. He’s not explosive or rangy, but he’s incredibly smooth and capable of making great throws from all kinds of odd platforms. It’s important for Karros to add strength to his 6-foot-5 frame, as he needs to develop power to counter a below-average contact projection. That and the introduction of other corner positions on defense are key developmental variables to watch as Karros treks toward a four corners bench role.
Karros was graded by MLB.com during the 2024 season as a 45 FV player and slotted in 18th in Colorado’s system, highlighted by a plus grade on his throwing arm:
Before he got hurt [at UCLA], Karros was using the 15 pounds of strength he had added to good effect at UCLA. He also was utilizing a more closed-off stance and has shown the ability to use the big part of the field well and make a ton of contact. His strikeout rate dropped while his walk rate improved, and while he hasn’t put up big power numbers, he can backspin the ball the other way and his approach should help him tap into his raw power.
The work that Karros did on his conditioning also made him a better defender at third. His plus arm always worked from the hot corner and his added agility and ranginess gives him every chance to stay there at this level. But he’s going to have to go out and prove he can impact the ball enough to profile as an everyday player at the infield corner.
For as great a year as Karros had in 2024, most scouts (Law excepted) don’t have Karros among their top ten in the system. At this point Karros seems like a very likely big leaguer in some capacity (at the least a strong corner infield reserve), though the newfound power stroke will need to manifest against advanced pitching before I anoint him the successor to Ryan McMahon as Colorado’s third base starter (not to mention the possibility of Charlie Condon taking on that mantle instead).
Karros will likely begin 2025 at Double-A and he will probably be a factor for the big-league club before his Rule 5 eligibility after the 2026 season. I ranked Karros near the top of the 40+ FV tier, 13th on my list, as I’d like to see if the power streak is limited to the low minors.