The 31st-overall pick in 2022 remains the only compensation the Rockies chose to receive for Trevor Story
15. Sterlin Thompson (410 points, 28 ballots)
Thompson is the first player so far in the Purple Row Prospects list who was named on every ballot. Fair or not, Thompson’s progress will be judged in part by Rockies fans by the fact his draft pick (31st-overall in 2022) was the only compensation Colorado received for Trevor Story leaving in free agency, in lieu of a deadline trade. Thompson signed for a slot bonus of just over $2.43 million as a productive draft-eligible sophomore college hitter from the SEC. The 23-year-old 6’4” lefty hitter, right-handed thrower split time between second base and the outfield in college at Florida, but as a professional he’s played everywhere but shortstop and catcher — none with any particular distinction. In 2024, he was mostly a left fielder, with first base the secondary option.
Thompson was assigned to High-A Spokane to begin 2023. He missed all of May with an injury, but when he was on the field, Thompson mashed. He hit .323/.399/.520 with seven homers among his 30 extra-base hits and 14 steals in 263 PA for Spokane (146 wRC+). The Rockies promoted Thompson to Double-A Hartford in August, where he was 1.7 years younger than league average. Upper-minors pitching slowed down Thompson, as he compiled a .238/.333/.429 line with seven homers and three steals with a 22% K rate in 144 PA at the level (111 wRC+).
Thompson was sent to the Arizona Fall League and bounced back offensively, hitting .338/.460/.475 with nine extra base hits in 80 PA. He split time between second base and the outfield defensively.
In 2024, Thompson went back to Hartford, where he was 0.6 years younger than average. Thompson wasn’t bad offensively — his .245/.319/.385 line in 518 plate appearances with 13 HR among his 35 XBH and 12/16 steals translates to an above average 103 wRC+. Still, it’s below where he was in 2023 and certainly below expectations for fans and scouts alike, especially given that he slid down the defensive spectrum. Thompson committed eight errors, including two in his only game at second base, but he was okay in left field (five errors in 80 games). What will sound familiar to Rockies fans were Thompson’s home/road splits — his .809 home OPS was well above his anemic .576 road OPS.
Here’s some video of Thompson hitting in the 2023 AFL, including some slo-mo looks at the swing at the end:
Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs slotted him as a 45 FV player last month and 9th in the system as a left fielder:
Thompson is a left-handed Miguel Vargas of sorts, a bat-only prospect without superlative physicality. Built in the Daniel Murphy and Nolan Schanuel mold, Thompson isn’t an especially mobile athlete, and he has trended down the defensive spectrum during the last few years from 2B/3B to 1B/LF, where he isn’t particularly sound. Thompson has great hands in the batter’s box, his pretty swing generates airborne contact from pole to pole, and he does not miss mistakes. He’s going to actualize the power he has, but it will only be fair pop unless something about his physicality changes drastically in his mid-20s. Now a career .270/.345/.430 hitter in the minors, Thompson has a roughly average contact and power combination undercut a bit by a lack of plate discipline. It’s enough to consider him a high-probability platoon piece, but not enough to consider him a foundational everyday player at the positions he’s capable of playing.
Keith Law of the Athletic ranked Thompson 12th today in his pre-season Rockies top 20 (as a LF/1B) after ranking him 70th overall in MLB before the 2024 season:
Thompson was on my top 100 a year ago, and when I saw him last spring he looked just the same — a very advanced hitter with a great swing and a chance to get to above-average power. He might have had the most disappointing year, to me, of any prospect, as he hit .245/.319/.385 and looked worse than that; I saw him in June, waving at 90 mph in the zone like he never saw it. He was such a natural hitter before last year that I know I at least overrated his feel to hit, as in Double A he didn’t seem to have much of an approach or a plan for his at-bats. He still doesn’t expand the zone much, but when he did last year, he whiffed at an extraordinary rate, nearly 80 percent on non-fastballs out of the zone. He’s going to have to play a corner somewhere, so he has to hit. He did hit everywhere until he reached Double A, if you’re looking to hang on to something, but with over 650 PA at that level he’s overdue for a major adjustment.
John Trupin of Baseball Prospectus ranked Thompson 18th in their recent system ranking:
Contrary to many of his contemporaries in the system, Thompson is a bat-first prospect whose ability to cover an outfield corner is in question. Previously trusted with greater responsibility at the hot corner, Thompson played just a single game at third in 2024, covering first most after a corner outfield role. Suffice to say, the pressure on Thompson’s bat grew significantly, and it’s not clear he met the challenge. Precisely average at a 100 DRC+ in Double-A Hartford across 518 plate appearances, Thompson’s swing is still slightly longer and floatier than may be ideal. He coils his body as he loads, in a move that generates significant bat speed but can leave him closed off as he attempts to whip the bat through the zone. The swing is well planed to elevate line drives, but leaves him little recourse when fooled, and does not create as much over the fence pop as might be necessary to cover his athletic but limited efforts in the field.
MLB.com ranked Thompson 13th in the system as a 45 FV player (as a 1B/OF) with a 50 hit tool during the 2024 season:
The left-handed-hitting Thompson has a nice package of approach, gameplan, pitch recognition and swing mechanics that have led to success pretty much wherever he’s been. He likes to use the whole field, showing extra-base thump and consistently hard contact. He definitely has the bat speed and strength to eventually forecast 15-20 homers a year without selling out for power.
Thompson has bounced around quite a bit defensively since joining the Rockies. He’s manned both outfield corners, as well as third and second base, and he’s even tinkered a little bit at first. He’s probably at his best and most athletic in an outfield corner if he were to settle into one spot, but there have been times when he’s been capable, albeit less than smooth, at making plays at second. The keystone and the outfield corners will probably be his focal points moving forward, but there’s comfort in knowing there’s some flexibility as to where they can get his bat into a big league lineup when he’s ready.
ESPN.com just ranked Thompson 9th in the system as a 45 FV player (LF defensively) but without further commentary.
In Thompson, I see a hit-over-power prospect with uncertain defensive utility (there’s a lot of variance in the above scouting reports on this point, but I’d look more to the more recent reports above) where the hit tool will need to carry him up the prospect ladder. Unfortunately, Thompson still struck out nearly a quarter of the time in Double-A without providing the kind of thump that will minimize those strikeouts at the big-league level.
Thompson does have a better hit tool than many of the outfielders he’s competing against for playing time (he’s got decent raw power too) and the hit tool is the most important one, but it is a narrower path to success than I would like. The lack of 2024 progression in Double-A is concerning too, which is why Thompson is only a 40+ FV player for me, 15th on my list. He will be Rule 5 eligible after the season, so this is a key year for Thompson to distinguish himself, likely at Triple-A Albuquerque in an outfield timeshare. If he does well in that role, expect Thompson to get a big-league opportunity late in the season.