The right-hander was moved to a full-time relief role in 2024
19. Jaden Hill (306 points, 25 ballots)
Hill’s ceiling as a potential top of rotation starter has consistently gotten attention from scouts — but in 2024, the Rockies waved the white flag as they moved the 6’4” right-hander to a full-time relief role. About that potential: the 25-year-old throws an upper-90s fastball graded in the 60-65 range, a plus changeup graded in the 60-70 range, and a potentially above-average slider. The high ceiling got Hill selected 44th overall in 2021 and signed him to a slot bonus of $1.69M despite having had Tommy John surgery before the draft.
Hill just wasn’t able to harness it as a starter with High-A Spokane in 2023. The Rockies limited Hill’s pitch count to under 75 pitches, so he didn’t go deeper than four innings into a start, which meant he only threw 43 2⁄3 innings in 16 starts. The results weren’t great: 9.48 ERA, 1.81 WHIP, 11.7 K/9 rate, and 5.2 BB/9 rate — though his 4.54 xFIP indicated some poor fly ball luck.
That wasn’t the end of Hill’s 2023, though, as Thomas Harding reported in November 2023. The Rockies pulled him from competition and worked on Hill’s entire motion in August:
“He had taken so long off from ‘T.J.’ that the lower half was inconsistent from outing to outing, and really from pitch to pitch at times,” Rockies coordinator of pitching strategies Flint Wallace said. “He came down here and worked hard at getting that dialed in. Basically, it’s getting his stuff in the zone more often. He was falling behind in counts early, but his stuff is electric.
“His changeup is a ‘plus-plus’ [well above Major League average] pitch. The slider, now that he has cleaned up some stuff, is getting back to where we saw pre-injury and on video when he was at LSU. We also know the fastball velocity is elite at times. And the improved delivery is helping him recover quicker.”
Hill made 11 appearances (all in relief) in the Arizona Fall League to end the season, with much better results: four earned runs on six hits and four walks while striking out 13 in 11 1⁄3 innings (3.18 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9).
As mentioned above, the Rockies committed to Hill in that relief role in 2024 and sent him to Double-A Hartford, where Hill was slightly below league average age. Hill’s six saves, 3.52 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 13.1 K/9 rate, and 2.6 BB/9 rate results in 38 1⁄3 innings over 34 appearances were a welcome sight that led to an early August promotion to Triple-A Albuquerque. In the hitter friendly Pacific Coast League, Hill got roughed up in seven appearances (eight runs on nine hits and six walks allowed in seven innings), though he struck out 13 batters and picked up a save.
That was enough to get Hill a Major League debut on September 7th, where he threw a scoreless inning. In fact, Hill made three scoreless appearances to begin his Major League career and two scoreless two-inning stints to end 2024. In between, he allowed runs in four straight games. In total, Hill allowed six earned runs on eight hits and four walks with six strikeouts in 10 2⁄3 innings of work (while averaging 96.9 MPH on his fastball), which were replacement level results.
Here’s some video of Hill showing off the updated delivery in the 2023 AFL:
Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs slots Hill in as a 40 FV player, 21st in the system, with three plus pitch grades (FB, CH, SL):
[Hill] battled shoulder soreness in 2023 and picked up reps in the Arizona Fall League as a reliever. His stuff took a leap, with his fastball up about three ticks into the 97-99 mph range, while both of Hill’s mid-80s secondary offerings flashed plus or better. Hill entered 2024 as a pure reliever, dominated Double-A, and reached the big leagues.
Though Hill has three plus pitches, he’s a little too wild to trust in high-leverage spots. He’s nearly a sidearm thrower whose fastball tails, sometimes way, way in on righties. His changeup also has a lot of tailing action, and the horizontal split between his slider and his two other pitches forces hitters to deal with a tough combination of east/west movement, though his lack of command doesn’t enable these pitches to consistently play to their full potential. Hill projects as a feast-or-famine middle reliever.
Hill ranked 20th in Colorado’s system at MLB.com as a 40 Future Value player despite a 65 grade on the fastball, a 60 for the change-up, and a 55 on the slider:
The Rockies feel that perhaps Hill has finally figured some things out in order for him to unlock his vast potential. The stuff is still elite, with a fastball that was flirting with triple digits and sitting in the upper-90s in the AFL, with a little more run than he’d shown previously in pro ball. His mid-80s tumbling changeup is easily a plus pitch and his slider has gotten back to being an above-average offering with some mechanical adjustments.
Hill’s command may never be pinpoint, but he made strides in that department thanks to more consistency in syncing up his lower half and being much more comfortable in his delivery. That also has allowed him to recover between outings more effectively, a key to keeping him healthy, especially as he tries to grow into a back-end bullpen role.
The Rockies chose the less exciting but more probable path for Hill’s development, which made sense given Hill’s lack of consistency and the fact he would have been Rule 5 eligible if the team didn’t add him to the 40-man roster in 2024. His stuff didn’t miss as many bats in his big-league cameo as it did in the upper minors, but I believe Hill can produce strong results with a larger sample size.
Evaluating Hill as a pure reliever, I echo Longenhagen’s concerns about high-leverage relief for him given the command struggles he’s had historically. That’s what ultimately dropped Hill, despite the closer stuff, down a tier (and just out of my top 30) among a crowded relief prospect 40 FV group that includes four other guys, most of whom I’ve written up in this series already. Hill will compete for an Opening Day roster spot, though I think he’ll be an up and down guy in 2025, starting down in Triple-A.