The left-hander has shot up the Rockies’ system since he was drafted 88th overall in 2022
9. Carson Palmquist (588 points, 28 ballots)
Palmquist has a low, funky arm slot and has utility as both a starter and reliever. The 6’3”, 24-year-old lefty largely flew under the radar as an amateur — he wasn’t highly scouted out of high school, going undrafted (despite not allowing a single earned run during his junior and senior seasons). In his first two years at Miami, Palmquist was dominant in the bullpen, then he transitioned to the rotation in 2022 and was quite good at that too (2.89 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 12.6 K/9 rate, and 3.4 BB/9 rate). During his three college seasons, Palmquist struck out over 36% of the batters he faced while walking fewer than 8%.
Palmquist added a change-up to his fastball/slider portfolio once he joined the starting rotation, all coming from that low lefty arm slot. It’s a profile reminiscent of Kyle Freeland, as many noted at the time he was picked 88th overall in 2022 by the Rockies, receiving a $775k bonus that was about $62k over slot.
Palmquist’s first full season assignment in 2023 was to High-A Spokane. He showed well, throwing 70 innings across 15 starts with a 3.73 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 13.6 K/9 rate, and 3.6 BB/9 rate. Palmquist’s 106 strikeouts was tied for eighth in the league and his K/9 rate led the circuit for anyone with 40 or more innings pitched. The Rockies rewarded that performance with a promotion to Double-A Hartford in late August, where Palmquist was 2.4 years younger than average. Palmquist finished the season with 22 1⁄3 innings across four starts, three of them of the quality variety, striking out 28 with a 4.43 ERA (3.79 xFIP).
In 2024, Palmquist headed back to Hartford, where he was still 1.5 years younger than league average. The lefty again put up strong numbers, carving through the Eastern League with a 3.17 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 12.4 K/9 rate, and 3.6 BB/9 rate in 82 1⁄3 innings across 18 starts — including five quality starts. That earned Palmquist a promotion in August to Triple-A Albuquerque, where he faced some of the toughest environments for a pitcher in minor league baseball and hitters that were 4.5 years older on average.
Palmquist struggled with the challenge, as most do at the level. He struck out fewer hitters (7.9 K/9 rate), walked more (6.9 BB/9, 1.84 WHIP), and was less stingy in run prevention (5.86 ERA and 6.72 xFIP) in his 35 1⁄3 innings across nine starts. Still, Palmquist’s 117 2⁄3 total innings pitched in 2024 were strong enough to position him as a rotation option for the Rockies entering 2025.
Here’s some highlights of Palmquist’s Hartford-record 13-strikeout game on July 5th, 2024:
Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs listed Palmquist as a 45 FV player last month, 6th in the system:
Palmquist’s arm slot has come up a lot since college and, though still low, it now looks much more like a lot of other starters’ arm strokes. Palmquist has also gotten much stronger since entering pro ball, and has now performed across a 27-start, 117.2-inning load, including success at hitter-friendly Hartford. Palmquist has retained enough of his Clay Rapada-like funk to remain deceptive, allowing his 91-mph fastball to punch above its weight. He mixes breaking ball shapes and speeds across a wide range of velos, most of them in the upper 70s. Palmquist’s slower breaking balls are the ones with his best swing-and-miss rates. These are sweepers in the 74-75 mph range, and likely will be less effective against big leaguers. Conversely, Palmquist’s changeup should have meaningful long-term growth as he gets more comfortable with this newer delivery; he also has the arm action and athleticism combo you want in order to forecast changeup growth. Palmquist lacks the pinpoint command one would need to be an impact starter with average stuff, but he’s poised to be a consistent no. 4/5 starter soon by virtue of his repertoire depth and deception.
John Trupin of Baseball Prospectus ranked Palmquist 13th in their recent system ranking:
Albuquerque can be unkind to individuals who only pull one q in Scrabble, as well as soft-tossing command-based pitchers. Like [Sean] Sullivan, Palmquist is a deception and targeting pitcher with a low release angle that is functionally sidearm from a hitter’s perspective. Appropriately, Palmquist’s mitts allow him to palm his changeup well, generating great fade and velocity separation on his upper-80s/low-90s heater. On some days, Palmquist sat 91-94 and saw unsurprisingly sterling results, but at 88-92 he has to be impeccable. Fading late in the campaign, he was, well, peccable in the PCL. Still, he’s on the cusp of big league work thanks to his bat-missing sweeper and disappearing cambio. Another depth rotation option for Colorado, he’ll be in contention with a few others on this list if and when the first spot in Denver opens up.
Keith Law of the Athletic ranked Palmquist 17th in the system earlier this month due to doubts about him remaining in the rotation:
The Rockies have continued to start Palmquist up through Triple A, although he’s a sidearming lefty who already gives up more power to right-handed batters, something that isn’t going to get better in Denver. He’s 90-93 with a sweepy slider, a slower breaking ball that Statcast calls a sweeper but that looks like a curveball, and an occasional changeup. Until he reached Triple-A Albuquerque, his walk rates were at or just under 10 percent, and I’m not dinging any pitcher who struggles in that environment. It’s just such a reliever look that I can’t see him facing right-handed batters two or three times in a game as a starter.
MLB.com ranked Palmquist 14th in the system during the 2024 season as a 45 FV player, highlighted by a 55 slider:
While Palmquist is never going to light up a radar gun, his combination of funkiness, deception and ability to pitch to both sides of the plate has allowed him to be an uncomfortable at-bat for both lefties and righties, leading to a 13.1 strikeout per nine rate in 2023. His fastball averages around 90 mph and tops out at 95, but it misses bats because it comes from a low, almost sidearm slot. His mid-70s sweeping slider is also a big swing-and-miss pitch, and his low-80s changeup has been an effective third offering.
Despite the funk and the deception, Palmquist tends to be around the plate, with some thinking he might have better than average control when all is said and done. He has conviction in all his pitches and loves to pitch inside with a fierce competitive streak. One evaluator did say he’s built like a fungo and there are concerns about durability in a starting role, but he’ll continue to do that for now even if he ultimately ends up in a bullpen.
Much like fellow PuRP Michael Prosecky, the Rockies gave Palmquist a chance to start after relieving in college and have been rewarded with strong performances all the way up to Triple-A in just over two years. With Palmquist, even if starting doesn’t work out, the left-hander has already proven he can thrive as a reliever, giving him a reasonable floor.
Palmquist doesn’t have to be added to the 40-man roster until after this season, but at the rate he’s going, he could well make his Major League debut much earlier and is a candidate for an Opening Day roster slot if injuries occur. The performance in Double-A, combined with the scouting reports, led me to rank Palmquist eighth on my list as a 45 FV player.