Colorado Rockies news and links for Friday, December 13, 2024
In 2024, the Rockies didn’t show much improvement. Outside of amazing sophomore campaigns from Brenton Doyle and Ezequiel Tovar, the stats weren’t very good.
As surprising as it may be, Colorado did get better in one area: home runs.
Ever since being ranked No. 8 in Major League Baseball with 210 homers in 2018, their last playoff season, the Rockies have been on a downward plunge in homers.
In 2019, Colorado dropped to No. 15 and was No. 21 or 22 the next three seasons. In 2023, they tied for the worst homer ranking as a team in franchise history at No. 26. The spiral stopped in 2024 when the Rockies combined for 179 homers, which ranked No. 15 in MLB.
If the Rockies are ever going to field a competitive team that contends for the postseason, they will have to hit home runs. The question now is whether 2024 will turn out to be an anomaly or if it will mark the beginning of an upward trend.
Despite the lack of impactful moves this offseason, I think 2025 could be even better in the home run department and build on 2024.
The biggest reason for hope is that the Rockies had more players post higher homer totals. For the first time since 2019, when Nolan Arenado hit 41 homers, Trevor Story recorded 35, Charlie Blackmon slugged 32, Ryan McMahon added 24 and Ian Desmon hit 20, the Rockies had four players hit 20 homers or more. Tovar led the team with 26, Michael Toglia added 25, Doyle posted 23 and McMahon chipped in 20.
In 2025, it’s possible that those four players not only hit at least 20 homers each, but that Nolan Jones also joins them. Jones hit 20 in 367 at-bats in his rookie season in 2023 before injuries and a slump dropped him to three homers in 256 at-bats in 29 games in 2024.
Depending on his playing time, Hunter Goodman could also join the 20-homer club. In just 211 at-bats, Goodman hit 13 homers, which equates to one homer every 18.35 at-bats. As back-up catcher and outfielder, as well as a possible DH, if he can total around 367 at-bats next season, he could hit 20 homers if he hits them at that same rate.
That would be six players with 20 homers, plus maybe 10 each from Jacob Stallings, Kris Bryant and Thario Estrada, the Rockies could have 10 players with double-digit homers. That would be another step in the right direction, even if it’s a tough estimate to make.
The other big reason for home run hope is that the Rockies have a new homer leader in the making: Toglia. C.J. Cron did his best, but never passed 30. The Rockies haven’t had a marquee home run hitter since Story, and even more since Arenado.
Story led the team in homers after Arenado left when he hit 11 homers in the pandemic-shortened season of 2020, and Cron wore Colorado’s long ball crown in 2021 and 2022 with 28 and 29 long balls respectively. In 2023, McMahon was tops with 23, which was the second-lowest, single-season team leader (behind only 2005 when Todd Helton was No. 1 with 20).
Toglia only had 399 at-bats (compared to Tovar’s 655, McMahon’s 567 and Doyle’s 542) and still managed to finish second on the team in homers with 25. Toglia came out hot in 2024, and despite missing the end of April and all of May, he hit 16 homers in 173 at-bats, which was one homer per 11 at-bats. He cooled down to finish the season with a homer per 16 at-bats. At that rate, if he records 550 at-bats in 2025, that would put him at 34 homers and make him the first Rockie in six seasons to cross the 30-home-run threshold.
In a very generalized projection, mostly based on 2024 numbers or career averages for players, here’s a possible lineup with individual homer totals:
- Brenton Doyle 23
- Ezequiel Tovar 26
- Michael Toglia 34
- Ryan McMahon 22
- Kris Bryant 10
- Nolan Jones 20
- Jacob Stallings 10/Goodman 20
- Sam Hilliard 10/Goodman 10
- Thario Estrada 10
If it’s close to this with more homers coming from the bench and possibly by prospects like Jordan Beck, Zac Veen and others, then the Rockies are in good position to hit more homers and rank higher in the MLB home run standings in 2025.
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Each team’s biggest Winter Meetings move | MLB.com
This article revisits the biggest splashes each team has ever made at the Winter Meetings. It’s been 24 years since the Rockies signed Mike Hampton to an 8-year, $121 million deal. The failure of the team still haunts Colorado, as they haven’t made a big free agent pitcher signing since.
Here’s Pipeline’s first full 2025 mock draft | MLB Pipeline
The Rockies have the No. 4 pick in the 2025 MLB Draft and the mock drafts are starting already. This one has the Rockies taking LHP Jamie Arnold from Florida State.
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