Colorado Rockies news and links for Friday, December 6, 2024
As Purple Row nears the end of its Ranking the Rockies series, counting down the team’s most valuable players by WAR (No. 2 and 1 will be published next week), it seems like a good time to dive into the team’s WAR, especially after back-to-back 100-loss seasons.
As a team, the Rockies finished 10.4 in rWAR, according to Baseball Reference, ahead of only the White Sox (6.8). The WAR matches their record of 61-101 (.377), which was also only better than the White Sox. Colorado’s pitching staff, starters and relievers, combined for 0.0, which was also No. 29 in Major League Baseball. Position players combined for a 10.4 WAR, which ranked No. 26 in MLB. The Rockies best position is center field at 3.9, thanks to Brenton Doyle’s 4.0 WAR, while their weakest position was left field at -1.4.
None of the numbers are very surprising when you consider the state of the Rockies franchise. As the team wanders through another lackluster offseason, it’s worth digging in a bit further into the past and the present to better understand where the Rockies need to go if they want to be a contender, or even a .500 team, anytime in the near future.
The star
In the five seasons the Rockies have made the playoffs in the organization’s history, they’ve finished in the top half of MLB standings in WAR. The World Series run in 2007 unsurprisingly tops the list when they were No. 5 with 41.4 and Troy Tulowitzki was No. 1 with a 6.8. Tulowitzki also led the team in WAR in 2009 when the Rockies were No. 11 with a 39.6 team WAR. Larry Walker starred on the 1995 Wild Card squad (No. 9, 34.9) with a 4.7 WAR. In 2017, when the Rockies returned to the playoffs for the first time in eight years, the Rockies were No. 9 at 39.4 and Nolan Arenado recorded a 6.7. In 2018, the Rockies ranked 14th at 34.4, led by Kyle Freeland’s 7.5 WAR.
While Walker’s 4.7 is considerably low for a team-high, Walker also only played in 131 games that year. His career-best of 9.8, which is also the best in Rockies history, came in his National League MVP season in 1997. Even with a lower WAR, his Hall of Fame-worthy play, was a huge lift to the team.
The Rockies haven’t had a player reach 5.0 WAR or higher since Nolan Arenado put up a 7.3 in 2019. In the past four seasons, the Rockies have been stuck in the fours. Trevor Story led the team with a 4.2 in 2021, Brendan Rodgers was tops in 2022 at 4.3, Nolan Jones matched that 4.3 in 2023 to lead the club and Brenton Doyle was No. 1 at 4.0 in 2024.
In 2024, American League MVP Aaron Judge put up the highest WAR in baseball at 10.8, single-handedly beating the Rockies. If the Rockies want to get back to the playoffs, they need a star, likely a superstar, to boost the team’s WAR and give them a realistic chance.
Ryan McMahon is the only Rockie to be in the team’s top 10 WAR in the last three seasons as he’s been No. 3 in 2022, No. 2 in 2023 and No. 3 in 2024. Ezequiel Tovar has landed in the top three in his only two seasons in the Big Leagues. Along with Doyle, the three could provide a solid foundation with star-power potential to lead the Rockies into the future. Only time will tell if Freeland or Germán Márquez can work their way back to the top tier for the team or if a new arm like Ryan Feltner or a prospect yet to come will lift the team up.
The value
At the same time, the Rockies will only dig out of the basement of MLB standings when they have fewer negative values on the roster. Using Bleacher Report’s Moneyball Power Rankings, which multiply each player’s WAR by eight, representing the $8 million per-win standard, and then by taking the player’s salary and subtracting the 2024 value, the article gives a very interesting look into each team’s roster.
Like overall WAR, the Rockies ranked No. 29 after last season at a painful -$66.6 million. It’s even worse when you compare it to No. 1 Milwaukee at $229.6 million. The top eight Colorado players combined for an impressive $126.2 million: Doyle ($31.3 million), Tovar ($28.7 million), Michael Toglia ($17 million), Austin Gomber ($13.7 million), Jacob Stallings (12.9 million), Ryan Feltner ($8.1 million), Ryan McMahon ($8 million) and Luis Peralta ($6.3 million)
That $126.2 million is wiped out and then some by the 10 worst Rockies values, which total -$135.7: Kris Bryant ( -$33.6 million), Freeland (-$15 million), Justin Lawrence (-$14.3 million), Elehuris Montero (-$14.0 million), Antonio Senzatela (-$12.0 million), Márquez (-$10 million), Charlie Blackmon (-$9.7), Daniel Bard (-$9.5 million, Tanner Gordon (-$8.9 million) and Dakota Hudson (-$8.7 million).
The good news is that four of those players won’t be back in 2025. The bad news is that the biggest drain on value has four more seasons on his $182 million contract.
It’s ridiculously obvious that more high-WAR stars and fewer negative pulls on the payroll will increase Colorado’s ability to win. Whether or not it could happen in 2025 is the question. If the Rockies can have a 5+ WAR player next season and fewer below-zero performances, it could be a sign they are headed in the right direction.
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Rockies have the best odds of getting the No. 1 draft pick | KDVR.com
The Rockies and the Marlins are tied with the best odds of getting the No. 1 MLB Draft pick in 2025 at 22.5%. MLB lottery will be held on Dec. 10 at 3:30 p.m. MT as part of the Winter Meetings in Dallas.
Even though he’s not seen much in public and didn’t even write a letter to season ticket holders this year, Dick Monfort is proving he still likes to email. On Thursday, the Rockies owner appears to have replied to an email from Rotoballer’s Kevin Larson that inquired about the team’s possible plans to enter the Juan Soto free agency sweepstakes. He said no, but for a surprising reason.
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