Monday Rockpile: Are the Rockies actually a draft and develop team?

Colorado Rockies news and links for Monday, January 13th, 2025

The Colorado Rockies were never going to make a big splash signing this off-season. Not with looming austerity measures coming for the team and not after six consecutive losing campaigns that included back-to-back seasons with 100 losses.

While those at the top will never admit it outright, the Rockies are mired in a rebuild that had to happen. High-profile free agents like Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, and Blake Snell were never coming to Denver.

“We’re not the Dodgers,” said then-new general manager Bill Schmidt in 2021 after being handed the keys to the front office. “We’re the Colorado Rockies. We scout, draft and develop.”

Instead the Rockies brought in veterans like Kyle Farmer and Thairo Estrada to bolster a core of homegrown young players that’s likely to get even younger. Anchored by young stars that have proven their mettle like Ezequiel Tovar and Brenton Doyle—and with more talent on the cusp of the majors like Adael Amador and Chase Dollander—the Rockies youth movement is in full swing.

“A lot of things can happen,” Schmidt said. “At the end of the day, we have to win games. But at the end of the day, we are a scout, draft and development organization. That’s who we’re going to be. That’s not going to change. Do we need better players and add things to the club? Sure. There are a lot of different ways to do that.”

Owner Dick Monfort reinforced a reliance on drafting and developing prior to the 2024 season as the Rockies were coming off their first 100-loss campaign in franchise history.

“I am open-minded to everything. But if you have to be organic,” Monfort said. “You have to stick with organic guys. I think it’s the only way we can do it, and we are not alone. There’s 20 teams that are not trying to participate in getting a free agent in every spot. Part of it is luck and health and when guys come along (when relying on draft and development).”

Unfortunately, the Rockies appear to be struggling with their team-building strategy of choice. A chart documenting accumulated WAR according to FanGraphs posted by baseball infographics creator BrooksGate offers a stunning indictment of the Rockies’ draft and develop methodology.

Shocked by the Rockies ranking a not-particularly-close dead last in wins above replacement from their players drafted from 2015 through 2024, I set out to document and replicate their results. What I found wasn’t pretty.

Of the 295 individual players selected by the Rockies in the first-year player draft from 2015 through 2024, only 36 have made their MLB debuts. Of that group, only 30 have done so for the Rockies.

It gets worse.

Those 30 players have an approximate combined fWAR of just 9.5 with just six players owning a career fWAR of 1.0 or greater while playing with the Rockies:

• 2B Brendan Rodgers (2015): 2.8 fWAR
• RHP Justin Lawrence (2015): 1.0 fWAR
• OF Sam Hilliard (2015): 1.4 fWAR
• RHP Ryan Feltner (2018): 3.7 fWAR
• OF Brenton Doyle (2019): 4.3 fWAR

No player from the Rockies’ 2016 or 2017 drafts has accounted for 1.0 or greater wins above replacement in their big league careers thus far.

The data also shows a near-catastrophic rate of misfires on top draft picks. In the 2015-2024 range, the Rockies have just two draft picks from the top five rounds that have accumulated 1.0 or more wins above replacement in Brendan Rodgers—who is no longer with the team—and Brenton Doyle. Brendon Rodgers is the only player selected in the first or second round of the draft to meet that mark.

The Rockies claim to have a draft and develop focus when it comes to roster construction, but the data shows that—at least for now—they are massively unsuccessful in doing so.

At least they have the international draft and their vaunted Latin American player development program, right?

“(With the international bonus pools) everybody was sort of equal and the smaller teams had more of a shot. It’s been a fairer system,” said Dick Monfort. “We have done a good job and have more coming.”

The Rockies’ only international free agent from 2015-2024 thus far to accumulate even positive fWAR in their MLB careers is Venezuelan shortstop Ezequiel Tovar of the 2017 class.

Baseball America’s 2025 survey of professional baseball scouts ranks the Rockies extremely low when it comes to identifying talent, and unfortunately it shows when you look at the returns on investment for the millions and millions of dollars in signing bonuses for their past draft classes. It’s worth noting that if you include players who have moved on from the organization or did not make their debut with the Rockies, the career total fWAR only jumps to 10.0.

While there is still time for their more recent draft classes to debut and begin to accumulate WAR, right now the results are in. The Rockies simply cannot call themselves a draft and develop organization until the numbers drastically improve.

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Sullivan ready to make another leap with healthy 2025 campaign | MLB.com

Rockies top pitching prospect Sean Sullivan—a lefty out of Wake Forest—has received an invite to spring training after a strong 2024 campaign. However, Sullivan had a hip injury bothering him at the tail end of the season. Now fully healthy, Sullivan is ready to prove himself as he pushes for his eventual big league debut.

35 hot baseball players who are sealing bases and hearts this season | YEN

After today’s column I figured a little bit of levity was in order. This ranking of baseball hotties comes from all the way from Ghana, and coming in at no. 7 is our very own Kris Bryant as an “acclaimed baseball 3rd baseman and outfielder for the Colorado Rockies.”

Shout-out to Renee Dechert for providing me with the link!

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