Colorado Rockies news and links for Monday, January 27th, 2025
Over the past few weeks we’ve taken a closer look at the Colorado Rockies and their preferred team building methodology as a “draft and develop” organization. To be more specific, we’ve evaluated their struggles employing that particular methodology.
From their difficulties in both the draft and with their international free agents over the last ten seasons from 2015 through 2024, the Rockies have largely been unable to extract the talent from the players they bring into the organization as fresh-faced amateurs.
When it comes to the MLB draft, the Rockies’ problems run even deeper.
To quickly summarize, the Rockies have drafted 295 players from 2015-2024, with just 30 of those players making their major league debuts with the Rockies organization. Those 30 players hold a combined wins above replacement via FanGraphs of approximately 9.8—the worst in the league during that time period.
During that ten year time period, I pointed out what I called a “near-catastrophic rate of misfires” when it comes to picks from the first five rounds of the draft. Only one first round pick—second baseman Brendan Rodgers—has accumulated a career WAR of 1.0 or more, and he has since departed the team this off-season.
The Rockies have had 17 first round picks—including compensation and competitive balance picks—since the 2015 draft. Only five of those players have actually made their MLB debut, but it’s worth keeping in mind that seven of the 12 players who haven’t debuted yet were drafted in 2020 or later. That group includes Chase Dollander, Charlie Condon, Zac Veen, and Gabriel Hughes.
This made me curious as to the Rockies’ overall rate of success with their first round picks dating back to the organization’s genesis. Unfortunately, the data that I uncovered was less than encouraging.
The Rockies have made 50 first round picks dating back to the team’s first draft in 1992. Of those picks, 31—or 62%—have made it to Major League Baseball in any capacity. 26 of their selections did so with the Rockies organization.
The Rockies’ first round picks have accumulated a total of 182.1 wins above replacement per FanGraphs (fWAR) and 197.3 wins above replacement per Baseball Reference (rWAR). This breaks down to approximately 7.0 fWAR and 7.6 rWAR per player of the 26 total first rounders that played Rockies baseball.
However, these numbers are heavily skewed.
Just seven “star” players—players with 10.0 or more WAR in either measurement—account for almost the entirety of the Rockies’ WAR accumulated by first round selections with 166.4 fWAR and 178.2 rWAR.
Rockies Hall of Fame first baseman Todd Helton—one of the the team’s earlier first round picks—accounts for 33% of that fWAR and 34.7% of that rWAR. Shortstops Troy Tulowitzki and Trevor Story account for the second and third most WAR respectively from that group.
When you take away those seven “star” players, you’re left with 19 first round selections that played with the Rockies and some pretty dismal WAR totals.
The remaining 19 players account for just 15.7 fWAR and 19.1 rWAR, averaging under 1.0 WAR per player.
This isn’t to say there weren’t some quality players among the remaining non-”star” first rounders. Standouts include the aforementioned Brendan Rodgers, as well as right-handed pitcher Jamey Wright, left-handed pitcher Tyler Anderson, and even third baseman Ian Stewart.
Unfortunately, the Rockies’ first rounders have been largely unproductive with the team, Heading into spring training for 2025 the team has four first round picks on the 40-man roster, but only two first round picks with positive WAR in any capacity: Kyle Freeland and Michael Toglia.
The Rockies do have a chance to right the ship. They have nine first round picks since the 2020 draft that have either made their big league debut or are getting close. 2023 and 2024 first round picks right-handed pitcher Chase Dollander and outfielder/third baseman Charlie Condon are both top 100 prospects per MLB Pipeline, with Dollander being given the opportunity to earn a roster spot this spring. Outfielder Jordan Beck and catcher Drew Romo will both be gunning for starting jobs in 2025, and outfielder Zac Veen is tantalizingly close to a big league debut.
Ultimately, the Rockies need to start seeing return on investment from their first round picks. Only then will they be able to start finding winning ways and be able to truly call themselves a “draft and develop” organization.
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Rockies 2024 first round pick Charlie Condon drew some concerns when he struggled during his first professional season. The slugger from the University of Georgia hit just .179/.256/.259 with only one home run over 29 games with the High-A Spokane Indians. However, Rockies general manager Bill Schmidt revealed that Condon had been playing through a thumb injury that hindered his performance. A fully healthy Condon will look to hit the ground running in 2025.
Charlie Blackmon named special assistant to the general manager | Purple Row
We knew when he retired that Chuck Nazty wouldn’t be away from the Rockies for long, but I don’t think anyone expected him to be back this quickly. The biggest announcement out of Rockies Fest was that a freshly mullet-less Charlie Blackmon would be joining the Rockies’ front office as a special assistant to general manager Bill Schimidt. He shares this role with Vinny Castilla, Todd Helton, and Clint Hurdle.
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