Monday Rockpile: Who could the Rockies target with the fourth overall pick?

Colorado Rockies news and links for Monday, December 16th, 2024

The “main event” that fans of the Colorado Rockies had to look forward to in this year’s Winter Meetings in Dallas was the lottery for the 2025 MLB draft. After finishing with a 51-101 record, the Rockies were all but guaranteed a pick in the top six and were tied with the Miami Marlins (62-100) for the best odds at drawing the first overall pick at 22.45%.

Despite the favorable odds, the Rockies didn’t have the luck. The Washington Nationals—adding insult to injury by having former fleeting Rockie Matt Adams announce the pick—drew the prize of selecting first overall in July’s draft. The Los Angeles Angels and Seattle Mariners will have the respective second and third overall picks.

The Rockies—despite having the worst record of all draft-lottery eligible teams—will draft fourth overall.

“I got nothing to say, boys,” said a frustrated special assistant Clint Hurdle as he left the lottery.

The Rockies can be thankful that they aren’t the Marlins, who defied the odds and brutally ended up with the seventh overall pick. However, the Rockies are still likely to miss out on their coveted prize: infielder Ethan Holliday out of Stillwater, Oklahoma: the son of Rockies star Matt Holliday and the current expected first overall draft selection in 2025.

Marc Gustafson—the Rockies’ senior director of scouting operations—was still optimistic.

“There’s going to be a good player,” Gustafson said. “So this is a fun time for us. It’s not like we’re heartbroken. We’re excited to get after it.”

Gustafson isn’t wrong. While Holliday may slip through the Rockies’ grasp, there are still a multitude of exciting young players still available at no. 4 for them to take.

LHP Jamie Arnold, Florida State University

The Rockies can never draft enough pitchers, and they also love their tricky college lefties. Carson Palmquiest (no. 10 PuRP) and Sean Sullivan (no. 7 PuRP) have excelled in the Rockies’ farm system, and Florida State pitcher Jamie Arnold would be an excellent addition to that stable.

Arnold, 20, delivers a mid-90s four seam fastball from a funky lower arm slot, giving it life and deception as a strikeout pitch. The fastball tops out at around 97 MPH and carries a 60 scouting grade per MLB Pipeline. He also uses a 60-graded sweeping slider with mid-80s velocity as a secondary pitch that carried a 41% whiff rate in 2024. Arnold also has a well developed changeup in his arsenal.

Arnold was one of the best Division I college pitchers in 2024 and a Golden Spikes semi-finalist. His 159 strikeouts were third-best among Division I pitchers and his ability to stay in the strike zone and repeat his delivery led him to just 26 walks over 105 ²⁄₃ innings.

Photo by Isaiah Vazquez/Getty Images

RHP Tyler Bremner, University of California, Santa Barbara

A pick that would likely get the approval of Ryan Spilborghs, right-handed pitcher Tyler Bremner is a fellow UC Santa Barbara Gaucho. Bremner has split his time in college almost evenly between the bullpen and the rotation.

The 20-year-old righty has three well-developed pitches in his arsenal. His 65-graded four seam fastball averaged over 95 MPH in 2024 and can reach 98 MPH. He can throw it reliably for strikes and his delivery is easily repeatable. He follows that up with a plus changeup with late movement that carried a 46% whiff rate in 2024

Bremner’s place in the draft depends on how the 2025 college season goes. Currently ranked as MLB Pipeline’s no. 4 draft prospect, Bremner could stay an early pick if he shows he can keep up with a starter’s workload.

LHP/1B Kruz Schoolcraft, Sunset (Oregon)

One of the most interesting high school players outside of Holliday, the 17-year-old Kruz Schoolcraft is already a towering 6’8’’ and 230 pounds. A legitimate two-way threat, Schoolcraft has both a 97 MPH four seam fastball and a 55-grade in power even before he’s finished filling out his long frame.

His fastball might gain additional velocity as he grows, but it currently doesn’t have much movement. His primary second pitch is a plus slider that sits in the low 80s for velocity and acts as his primary strikeout pitch. He also has a developing changeup with a 50 scouting grade. Schoolcraft does a good job repeating his delivery and keeping his pitches in the zone.

As a defender, Schoolcraft has a plus arm and is considered a plus fielder at first base. While his bat is still developing, he has a 50-grade hit tool and has the chance to turn into a quality hitter with solid pop in his bat. The question remains if—when drafted—the organization will allow him to keep hitting, or change his focus to purely pitching.

It’s entirely possible that Ethan Holliday is still on the board when the Rockies step up to the podium in July. There are even some mock drafts predicting that scenario. However, with the lottery results being what they are, it’s better to plan for a future without him. Thankfully, there are still plenty of quality options to be taken on day one of the 2025 MLB draft.

While the rankings and options may change throughout a dynamic high school and college season, the three players discussed above at least prove Marc Gustafson right: “there’s going to be a good player.”

Whatever good player the Rockies select at no. 4 overall, it will be up to the team to shape them into a future contributor for years to come.

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“I would love to play all over the field, but there comes a point when you have to figure out what’s best for the team,” Bryant told the Denver Post’s Patrick Saunders. “That’s probably not going to be me because of the young outfielders we have — guys like (Brenton) Doyle and (Jordan) Beck and (Nolan) Jones. Those younger guys. I realize I have to earn that DH spot, but I feel like I can contribute to this team.”

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