Ranking the Rockies: No. 44, Anthony Molina

Rule 5 Draft picks tend to struggle in the majors. Molina was no different.

Welcome to the 2024 edition of Ranking the Rockies, where we take a look back at every player to log playing time for the Rockies in 2024. The purpose of this list is to provide a snapshot of the player in context. The “Ranking” is an organizing principle that’s drawn from Baseball Reference’s WAR (rWAR). It’s not something the staff debated. We’ll begin with the player with the lowest rWAR and end up with the player with the highest.

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No. 44, Anthony Molina: -0.6 rWAR

Everyone knows the great success stories of Rule 5 Draft picks—Roberto Clemente, Johan Santana, Anthony Santander, and so on. But the reality is the vast majority of Rule 5 picks were exposed to being selected and lost for a reason. A decent chunk don’t even make the Opening Day roster for their new teams before being returned to their original organizations, and plenty don’t get through the full season either. To stick on a major league roster for a full season as a Rule 5 Draft pick, no matter the team or the circumstances, is already a significant accomplishment.

Anthony Molina belongs to the latter category. Originally signed by the Tampa Bay Rays in 2018 when he was just 16 years old, the Venezuelan right-hander experienced a lightning-quick rise through the minor leagues despite the lost 2020 season, reaching Triple-A in his age-21 season and holding his own despite the inexperience. Because of his young age upon entering pro ball, Molina was Rule 5 eligible following the 2023 season. The Rays, operating under their ever-present roster crunch, left him unprotected, and the Rockies pounced.

It’s easy to see what the Rockies liked in Molina when they selected the 21-year-old starter in the Rule 5 Draft. Molina has always been a precocious strike-thrower—he never walked even three batters per nine in any of his MiLB seasons, and he did this while holding solid velocity, as his fastball was frequently parked in the 93-95 mph range. Molina also had a really nice changeup to boot, and good control of his off-speed as well. Here’s a look at his mechanics:

It’s a classic advanced starter package, which begs the question—if Molina had so many positive traits, why did the Rays not think enough of him to protect him on the 40-man roster?

The answer(s) to that question would be found in the 2024 season. While Molina did stick in the majors for the entire season, pitching exclusively out of the bullpen, he took his share of lumps in the big leagues. While the Rockies didn’t do him a lot of favors—not putting him on any sort of consistent schedule and often not putting him on the mound for well over a week at a time (not to mention the lunacy of having him make his MLB debut with two runners on and nobody out, facing the top of the lineup in front of a delirious Arizona Opening Day crowd)—Molina was also simply not ready to get big league hitters out.

The final numbers were not pretty: a 6.79 ERA that was well deserved by most peripherals, a measly 15.5% strikeout rate, and nearly 11 hits per nine. He worked mostly in low-leverage, multi-inning work—only five of his 35 appearances came with the game tied or the Rockies leading by two or less runs. He was not ready, clearly, and the team spent most of the season effectively working with one less bullpen spot because of it. This is not Molina’s fault himself, mind you, but it’s what transpired.

The main reason for Molina’s struggles lies in his lack of a breaking ball he can go to for swing-and-miss. Molina is not a spin-rate darling, and there’s likely some mechanical or grip-related tweak he needs to make, because neither his hard slider nor his curveball have enough movement to make hitters respect them—he clearly gets behind the ball way too much at the moment, putting too much backspin on his slider as he throws it. He would benefit from Germán Márquez’s slider grip immensely.

Molina’s changeup is good and his control and velocity are fine, but as you might’ve noticed, his fastball shape is pretty ordinary and there’s not a lot of funk and deception in the delivery. His fastball got absolutely pummeled in 2024 (.374 average and .561 slugging against), and while I don’t think it’s that bad, it’s a thoroughly mediocre heater. It would play better with improved secondaries, but as long as hitters don’t respect his slow stuff and he keeps working exclusively away from them—as too many Rockies pitchers tend to do—he is going to underperform.

In a way, Molina is very similar to Antonio Senzatela: nice velocity, good control, and a hittable fastball without much deception. Senzatela has a better arm and better pinpoint command, but Molina has a way better changeup. Like Senzatela, Molina has a potential future in the back end of a rotation with some added polish—whether that future is 2025 or the following year is a different question altogether, as is his place in the Rockies’ long term pitching plans.

Still, it’s worth remembering that most Rule 5 Draft picks don’t make it this far. Anthony Molina’s rookie season was difficult, but he completed it, and that should be considered a success.

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