The state of the Colorado Rockies farm system, August 2024

2024 Colorado Rockies Spring Training — Photo by Kyle Cooper/Colorado Rockies/Getty Images

How does the Rockies farm system look after another year?

In the process of writing about every player who received votes in our biannual Purple Row Prospects (PuRPs) list — this edition it was 72 players across 35 ballots — I learned a bit about trends and system strengths and weaknesses. So for anyone who missed a few write-ups or even who has a more casual relationship with the farm system, I wanted to synthesize some of those thoughts into a bigger picture than any individual prospect. With Colorado’s penchant for building their big-league roster from within, the players on this list are likely going to play a big role in the next 5-7 Colorado Rockies teams.

Here are the big picture items I took away after my review of Colorado’s top prospects as 2024 winds down:

A Wave of prospects are coming in 2025

As I looked at the top ten PuRPs especially, I saw a number of potential impact players that will play in Double-A or higher in 2025 — at least eight of the top ten and 22 of the 30 PuRPs project be in the upper minors or MLB in 2025. Here’s how I characterize those upper-minors PuRPs:

A starter with high-end stuff who could (should) be in MLB less-than two years after he was drafted in Chase Dollander (No. 1 PuRP), plus another fast-moving 2023-drafted pitcher in deceptive lefty Sean Sullivan (7) and another funky lefty in Carson Palmquist (10) who is already in Triple-A.
Colorado’s first-round pick this year, Charlie Condon (2), who profiles as a star on offense with some defensive utility, will probably get to Double-A with an outside chance of more.
A long-term starter at second base in Adael Amador (3), who could begin in the upper minors but seems very likely to burst into the Show in earnest.
Three outfielders (+ Condon) are among the top six PuRPs and should all be in Double-A or higher in 2025: Zac Veen (4), Yanquiel Fernandez (5), and Jordan Beck (6) — all of whom seem like solid big leaguers to me.
A catcher who might be Colorado’s starter on Opening Day 2025 in Drew Romo (9).
Two true center fielders with oodles of athleticism in Cole Carrigg (12) and Benny Montgomery (16) — though of course Carrigg can really play anywhere he’s needed.
Starting pitcher depth in Gabriel Hughes (13), Michael Prosecky (22), Jack Mahoney (23), and Mason Albright (20).
A third baseman who’s had a breakout summer offensively in Kyle Karros (14), plus a former top-100 hot corner prospect in Warming Bernabel (29).
A high-contact bat with uncertain defensive utility in Sterlin Thompson (17)
A couple of up-the-middle defenders with some offensive upside in Ryan Ritter (19) and Greg Jones (25).
Two late-inning relievers in Jaden Hill (21) and Angel Chivilli (24).
They aren’t PuRPs, but several rookie-eligible pitchers who received votes in our PuRPs poll could play a role for the Rockies in 2025, including Bradley Blalock (HM), Yujanyer Herrera (HM), Zach Agnos (HM), Juan Mejia, Luis Peralta, Victor Juarez, Tanner Gordon, and Seth Halvorsen (among others).

In particular, I’m interested to see how the nine PuRPs in the top 20 with an outfield projection (five of which are already at Double-A or above) will fit into an already crowded picture with the big-league club next year that includes Brenton Doyle and Nolan Jones.

It’s true that the last few years haven’t been fun for Rockies fans, but in 2025 we could truly see a strong core of young players emerge for Colorado — perhaps a first glimpse of the next Rockies playoff squad.

A forward step for the farm system

During the pre-season evaluation period, the Rockies were largely placed in the bottom third among all farm systems. They were ranked 24th by Keith Law of the Athletic, 22nd by ESPN.com, 21st by MLB.com, and 21st by Fangraphs before the draft/deadline. In other words, a consensus that the Rockies were a little below average.

Some of these outlets have put out their mid-season rankings and the Rockies have mostly taken a step forward thanks to drafting at the front of the draft and selling modestly at the deadline.

MLB.com shot the Rockies up to 12th in their farm system ranking, second in the division, with a strong six top 100 prospect showing:

Picking in the top 10 in the past two Drafts has certainly helped, with those selections topping the six Top 100 guys the Rockies have. Dollander’s big first full season is a lift as well, and many people felt Condon was the best player in the 2024 class. The Rockies have built out their system with solid Drafts of late, with players like Cole Carrigg and Sean Sullivan joining Dollander in representing the Class of ‘23 well, and also boast many players beyond those classes who have turned in strong 2024 campaigns. Continued development/hitting the reset button for international signees like Fernandez and Amador could help the Rockies slot in even higher next year.

Kiley McDaniel of ESPN and Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs both assign monetary value to the minor league system based on prospects with a Future Value grade of 35+ (interesting organizational player) or higher. Using that method, McDaniel estimated Colorado’s system was worth $161 million mid-season 2023 and is worth $222 million now, 13th overall and second in the division (to the Dodgers, naturally):

The Rockies landed my top prospect in the draft with the No. 3 overall pick. While I don’t love how the Rockies org is run from the top, I continue to like their drafts. This year’s crop also included Brody Brecht (some of the best raw stuff and athleticism in the draft), Cole Messina (the best framer in the draft, with low-end starter upside) and Jared Thomas (a potential sleeper for a couple sharp clubs). The 2023 first-rounder RHP Chase Dollander is also beating expectations thus far in pro ball while Cole Carrigg is an arrow-up guy from last year’s draft. There hasn’t been a notable graduation, but Adael Amador and Jordan Beck have made their big league debuts.

Longenhagen’s evaluation has the Rockies at $182 million of value, 15th in the league (third in the division), up from $158 million earlier in the year. Notably, Colorado’s 51 ranked prospects at Fangraphs were second-most in MLB, underscoring the depth seen in this round of PuRPs voting.

While these rankings aren’t the end-all, be-all of prospect evaluation, they take a principled and organized view of the entire minor leagues and I trust their judgment more than my biases.

So let’s assume these rankings are at least directionally accurate. Why have the Rockies gained value since pre-season? The reasons are generally obvious but are worth stating:

Drafting a player who is seen as a future star like Condon (2) who ranks in national top 20 lists does a lot on its own. In addition, Competitive Balance pick Brody Brecht (11) is seen by some as on the fringes of the top 100 as well.
The three pitchers the Rockies acquired at the deadline were well thought of, in particular by Longenhagen at Fangraphs. So far their collective success in the Rockies system portends further jumps up in rankings.
Top prospects that “should” have graduated like Amador (3) and Beck (6) have instead kept their rookie status intact to qualify for these types of lists. Indeed, the highest profile Rockies prospect who graduated since pre-season was either Hunter Goodman or Victor Vodnik — not really needle movers on these lists.
Dollander (1) jumped into the top 25-50 overall with his performance this year, while Veen (4) found his way back on these lists. Sullivan (7) and Palmquist (10) have been excellent while Robert Calaz (8) will likely get top 100 consideration soon. Several relief arms broke out and look like weapons out of the bullpen moving forward.
The net effect of the above four sections is that the MLB-impact depth of the system was boosted considerably. In the pre-season list, I had 28 players graded out as 40 FV (MLB part-time player) or better. That’s up to 44 such players now.

Rockies again prioritized pitching in the draft and at the trade deadline

The old saw about never having too much pitching at Coors Field applies here, as does the fact that nearly all of Colorado’s top ranked prospects are position players (seven of the top ten). It’s clear where this system’s strengths lie, so the three prospects the Rockies acquired at the trade deadline were all pitchers and 13 of their 21 draft picks were pitchers. Two of those trade prospects, Bradley Blalock and Luis Peralta, are already throwing big-league innings for the Rockies.

It must be said that one reason such a bolstering of the pitching ranks was necessary is that the Rockies were absolutely rocked by injuries to their top pitchers in 2023. That was true at the big league level (Tommy John surgeries for Germán Márquez and Antonio Senzatela) and among PuRPs (Tommy John surgeries for Hughes (13), Jordy Vargas (15), and Jackson Cox (27)). This year has been better health-wise for Rockies pitchers, with only 11 pitchers starting a game for Colorado this year (down from 17 last year), but I don’t think anyone would argue the Rockies have a deep well of talented big-league contributors just yet.

There were 12 pitcher PuRPs this time despite all the injuries — they’re just tilted in placement towards the back half.

Colorado’s Latin America program shines again

Eight PuRPs were acquired as international free agents from Latin America, including three players in the top eight. That group includes:

An up-the-middle player who should be an above average regular in Amador (3)
A corner outfielder with thunder in his hands and a cannon of an arm in Fernandez (5)
Another big-bopper outfielder crushing the ball in Low-A as an 18-year-old who is already getting some top-100 buzz in Calaz (8)
A pitcher who was on the fringe of top 100 lists until his injury in Vargas (15)
A tooled-up shortstop who got a $2.8 million bonus in Dyan Jorge (18), plus another that got a $1.7 million bonus this year in Ashly Andujar (22).
A 22-year-old MLB late-inning relief pitcher in Chivilli (25)
A third baseman with excellent bat-to-ball skills (who admittedly stumbled over the last two years) in Bernabel (29)

★ ★ ★

As I do each PuRPs cycle, I’m going to look at the current system and project which players could be on the 40-man roster in the lead-up to the Rule 5 draft this off-season. The upcoming Rule 5 Draft will see players who were signed either in 2020 (if they were 18 or younger at signing) or 2021 (signed at 19+ years old) become eligible for the first time. The 2020 class of players was impacted by the lost minor league season in 2020, meaning that these players had fewer opportunities to prove their readiness for a 40-man roster spot than usual.

When I did this exercise in February, I listed 38 players who would be under contract, on the 60-day IL, had a likely team option, or were prospects that were very likely to be added before this off-season’s Rule 5 draft. Today, the entire top 22 from that list but just seven out the bottom 16 are still on the 40-man or 60-day IL, though not all of them are in as secure a position as they were six months ago. With that in mind, let’s take stock of the 40-man roster moves which could occur before the 2024 Rule 5 draft.

The Near Future: 40-man roster after 2024

Here’s how I would characterize each spot on the 40-man roster as it will exist after the 2024 season (assuming all free agents leave the organization and most player/mutual options are declined), the next time the Rockies will need to make mass additions to protect prospects from the Rule 5 draft:

Sure things (current)

These players are on the current 40-man roster, have already seen major-league action, and will still be on the roster after the 2024 season barring trades (which is a condition that applies to every category). Players with multi-year guaranteed deals are generally ranked higher than arbitration-eligible and pre-arb players:

Ezequiel Tovar
Ryan McMahon
Kyle Freeland
Kris Bryant
Germán Márquez
Antonio Senzatela
Brenton Doyle
Brendan Rodgers
Adael Amador
Drew Romo
Jordan Beck
Ryan Feltner
Michael Toglia
Nolan Jones

Likely (current)

These players have major-league experience, are currently on the 40-man, and will likely be on the post-2024 40-man roster — but under-performance could cause them to lose their spot to a DFA or non-tender. I also consider players with a likely to be picked up player or club option in this category. Presented roughly in my order of confidence:

15. Austin Gomber

16. Cal Quantrill

17. Victor Vodnik

18. Angel Chivilli

19. Bradley Blalock

20. Luis Peralta

Likely (future)

These players haven’t yet seen MLB action but are in good shape to have a 40-man roster spot after 2024 (several of them already do). Players who don’t need to be Rule 5 protected after the season (most notably Beck and Thompson) aren’t listed, though a couple of them could also force their way onto the roster. Again, presented in order of confidence:

21. Yanquiel Fernandez

22. Zac Veen

23. Jaden Hill

Under contract but at risk

These players are on the 40-man now but are serious candidates for a DFA or non-tender during or after the 2024 season (I also consider players with a possible player or club option in this category as well as those signed as minor league free agents who won’t have the service time for major league free agency) — presented from most safe to least:

24. Lucas Gilbreath

25. Hunter Goodman

26. Tyler Kinley

27. Justin Lawrence

28. Jake Bird

29. Anthony Molina

30. Juan Mejia

31. Greg Jones

32. Sam Hilliard

33. Sean Bouchard

34. Jake Cave

35. Noah Davis

36. Peter Lambert

37. Evan Justice

38. Aaron Schunk

39. Tanner Gordon

40. Jeff Criswell

41. Dakota Hudson

I wouldn’t be surprised if any of the above players were not in the organization after 2024, but in particular anyone below Mejia should consider their 40-man roster slot vulnerable. That gets us to 41 players (including two new prospects), so we’ve already got a full house.

Remember though that the Rockies will probably re-sign some free agents, which also will take up spots (at the expense of some of the more vulnerable players above, some of whom could be designated for assignment or non-tendered).

Here’s how I would rank other players (among those with no non-IL MLB service time) in terms of getting a 40-man spot after 2024:

Yujanyer Herrera (almost put him in the Likely (future) section)
Evan Shawver
Braxton Fulford
Willie MacIver
Sam Weatherly
Dugan Darnell
Riley Pint
Antoine Kelly
Elehuris Montero
Warming Bernabel
Case Williams
McCade Brown
Victor Juarez
Juan Guerrero
Braiden Ward
Julio Carreras
Alberto Pacheco
Ryan Rolison
Mason Green
Jarrod Cande
Ismael Luciano

I would say Herrera will probably be protected, and I suspect two or three of the next eight or nine players will be selected (including one of the catchers if Jacob Stallings doesn’t return) but I don’t know which. I listed 21 players here and still somebody from off this list could make a surprise appearance, as I think the bottom 10 or so slots on the 40-man are quite fluid. With the 40-man roster, change is always the expectation.