Colorado Rockies news and links for Thursday, December 11th, 2024
For those unaware — which is likely none of you — the Rockies have officially brought on Thairo Estrada, a second baseman that Colorado fans will recognize from his time with the San Francisco Giants.
The 28-year-old Estrada is coming off of his roughest full season in the majors, and therefore the Rockies opted for a one-year “show me” deal (his mutual option notwithstanding). They’re obviously hoping he can revert back to the form that made him into such a Coors killer — and maybe utilize those strengths for his new team.
How much of a killer? In his 92 career at-bats at elevation, Estrada has slashed a staggering .348/.406/.565. Will that translate when he plays at Coors for half of his season? It’s hard to say, but if nothing else, it’s an interesting prospect.
It wasn’t just in the confines of Coors that he was effective, though — he ripped up Rockies pitching in San Francisco, too. Through 39 total games against the Rox, his .345 average, 33 RBIs, and 32 runs scored were likely enough for Colorado’s front office to decide to sign him purely to keep him from being them up.
With stats like those, why did he have a tough 2024?
He can’t play the Rockies every day, and his advanced metrics painted a pretty yucky picture. Estrada swung and missed a lot, and even when he made contact, it was typically fairly weak. His biggest struggle is offspeed pitches, against which he managed just an .098 average. He’s still a solid fastball hitter, but if he can’t adjust to the slow stuff, then a change of scenery won’t be enough for him to turn the corner back to productivity.
Luckily, Estrada can contribute with more than just his bat. He profiles as one of the finest fielding second basemen in the game today, and he should be an effective partner for Ezequiel Tovar in the middle infield. Colorado’s starting pitchers will doubtless feel more confident and comfortable knowing that they’ve got those two high-caliber defensive shields backing them up.
Estrada isn’t quite as effective when utilized in other spots, such as shortstop or left field. He’s far and away more suited at the keystone, but that shouldn’t be an issue, what with Colorado’s glut of outfield talent. Second base should be Estrada’s spot to lose as the team enters next year, and he’ll have plenty of time to adjust to his new surroundings.
He’s also a big upgrade in the speed department, something that’s important to a team that has said that they want to be more aggressive on the base paths. While he only swiped two bags last season, he’s in the 70th percentile of speed in MLB and could be considered a base-stealing threat if given the opportunity. If he can work things out, there’s a lot of potential upside to Colorado’s new starting second baseman.
I guess it’s unfair to say he’s 100% cemented as the Rockies’ man at second. After all, they did just sign utilityman Kyle Farmer, who will be in the mix. The Rockies also have younger players awaiting their opportunity at a big league spot, such as Aaron Schunk and Greg Jones. There’s also the outside, outside chance that Adael Amador absolutely explodes this year, forcing Colorado’s front office into a tough decision.
In all likelihood, though, Estrada’s got the job. He’ll probably get a good number of at-bats, as well, as he slots nicely behind Brenton Doyle as two- or maybe four-hole hitter. The second spot is the one he’s spent the majority of his career hitting in, though he could reasonably slot in anywhere in Colorado’s batting order. If Estrada can figure out how to more consistently barrel up the ball — and maybe sprinkle in some opposite field hits, as opposed to exclusively pulling — he’ll be a big jolt to their lineup. That’s a big if, though.
And what of the future? At just 28, Estrada’s not exactly a longtime veteran of the game, and he could absolutely rebound into an effective tool for the Rockies. If he does bounce back, Colorado’s decision gets harder, as they could choose to retain his services or let him walk and hedge their bets on Amador. That’s jumping the shark a bit, as we haven’t even seen Estrada swing a bat for Colorado yet, but I’m in the “what if” business, baby, and I like to think ahead.
Of course, there’s also the option that arises for every player on these short-term deals, and that’s a potential flip at the trade deadline. Should he be recording a solid season, the Rockies may look to move him to a contending team in exchange for young talent more suited to their rebuilding process.
We’ll have to see what version of Estrada arrives to Spring Training in 2025. Will be the hot-hitting Rockie-killer we saw in 2022 and ‘23? Or will it be the hack-and-slashing free swinger that struggled last year? Time will tell how he recovers from a tough season and acclimates to the thin Colorado air, but if he can facilitate a career revival, the Rockies may have found a good one.
What do you think? Are you excited for Estrada to play for the Rockies, or are you dreading his debut? Let me know in the comments below!
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