Colorado Rockies news and links for Thursday, July 4, 2024
The Colorado Rockies starting 2B had a front seat on the struggle bus to begin the 2024 season. Through his first 20 games, he posted a .194/.229/.284 slash line with no home runs and just three RBI to his name. The numbers for the former top pick were a representation of the team as a whole, as they entered May with a 7-22 record and on cruise-control for a last-place finish in the National League West.
Although the team’s fortunes haven’t turned around – now sitting with a 29-57 record, and 15 games out of the last wild card spot – Rodgers’ certainly has.
His bat started coming back to life in May with a much healthier .290/.321/.355 line. This was a preview for his very productive June, collecting eight extra-base hits, three home runs and a very hefty .990 OPS. That production comes with a caveat, however, as he did miss two weeks with a hamstring strain in the middle of the month with a hamstring strain…but more on that later.
Regardless, Rodgers is on the field and seemingly hitting on all cylinders for a last place team that is supposedly willing to be open for business at the trade deadline. With just one year of club control remaining after this season and the heir to his position – Adael Amador – already given a sneak peek in his absence, it is clear that it may just be a matter of time before the Rockies move on from the former third overall selection from the 2015 draft.
But if they are to move him, how much value does he actually have?
Defensively, Rodgers is a proven commodity, taking home a Gold Glove award for his work at second base during the 2022 season and still rating favorably at the position on all metrics. However, he is also strictly limited to just the second base position after the Rockies ditched the concept of playing him on the left side of the infield after his throwing shoulder troubles led to surgery during 2019 and 2020 put him on the sidelines almost entirely.
Though he has displayed little defensive versatility in his MLB career, his glove is still ultimately his calling card as he has been plagued by inconsistencies with the bat. For his career, Rodgers owns a 91 OPS+ and just 37 HR in over 1,400 at-bats. He has posted a respectable 77 doubles in that time, showing the potential for a higher notch of power, but it has thus far been a vein untapped.
His on-base skills have never been enough to counteract that lack of pop and he sits at a career .318 OBP. It is not awful by any metric, however it does not stand out, either. Which epitomizes what Rodgers’ trademark has been as a hitter; okay, but by no means great.
So, the market for a defense-first, average-ish hitter with the upside for more is the foundation for Rodgers’ stock. That is all before you get to the real elephant in the room with him as a player – injuries.
As previously mentioned, Rodgers already has one trip to the injured list this season but that is just the tip of the iceberg. You could fill a wall going over his medical history as a professional ballplayer, but it all boils down to the fact that he has more seasons almost entirely lost to injury than ones where he’s reached even 100 games — only two.
So, given their current position, Colorado may finally be inclined to part with the once future franchise player. One that plays strong defense at his lone position, has a history of being generally average offensively and has a long track record of significant injuries.
It’s not exactly the kind of centerpiece that can demand a franchise-altering return. But, it’s a trade chip nonetheless. So what kind of return could management expect?
The Rockies surely have their own price in mind for their player. However, we can try to gain some context based off trades for similar players in recent seasons. Narrow the scope to second basemen trade since the start of 2021, there are two trades that likely stand out as extremes in recent precedence.
The first is Luis Arraez getting flipped from the Miami Marlins to the San Diego Padres this year (not to mention the deal that got him to Miami from the Minnesota Twins that netted ace Pablo Lopez), and the other a deal between the Twins and Seattle Mariners that sent Jorge Polanco to the pacific northwest.
Both trades netted the selling team a package of four players, but no highly touted prospects. That is likely the best case outcome for Colorado. However, it is also fairly unrealistic as both Arraez and Polanco are far more accomplished players than Rodgers.
What is far more likely instead is a much more modest return of a mid-tier prospect or two, like the return the Cincinnati Reds received when flipping Brandon Drury to the Padres in 2022 or either of the two packages Adam Frazier commanded in his journey from Pittsburgh to San Diego to Seattle.
There is likely a middle ground where Rodgers could be added as a sweetener in a deal involving Cal Quantrill or maybe Austin Gomber that could greatly improve the Rockies’ return. But if the organization expects to sell him alone for a ransom, they’ll likely be in for a very rude surprise.
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Joe Nguyen includes his pedestrian insight regarding the Colorado Rockies 2024 draft: specifically two choices for their top pick.
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