Tuesday Rockpile: Can the Colorado Rockies replicate the Royals’ success?

Colorado Rockies news and links for Tuesday, August 27, 2024

It seems so familiar.

A year ago, the question was whether the 103-loss Colorado Rockies could replicate the success of the World Series-bound Arizona Diamondbacks. After all, the D-backs had gone from a 52-110 record in 2021 to a title run in 2023. Quick rebuilds were possible, the conventional wisdom said. (D-backs general manager Mike Hazen has been clear that 2021 was not part of a rebuilding effort; rather, the team was just bad.)

Now similar comparisons are being made to the Kansas City Royals who last year went 56-106, and this season are one game out of first place in the AL Central.

The Rockies are all but certain to repeat their 100-loss season. Could a postseason run be possible for them as soon as 2025? General manager Bill Schmidt has suggested it’s not out of the question.

It’s a topic worth considering.

Still, both the D-backs and the Royals have three things the Rockies do not: A young superstar, a robust rotation, and a forward-looking front office.

The superstar

In 2023 when the D-backs were so good, Rookie of the Year Corbin Carroll led the way. He was a 5.4-fWAR player with 25 home runs and 54 stolen bases. Carroll was the team’s spark plug, and when he was out with a shoulder injury, the D-backs struggled. That’s been less the case this year as the D-backs have strengthened other parts of their lineup, but in 2023, Carroll was essential.

Similarly, the Royals have Bobby Witt Jr. In 2023, he was a 5.8-fWAR player (30 home runs and 49 stolen bases). This season, he’s worth a staggering 9.0 fWAR and has 25 home runs and 26 stolen bases. Like the D-backs, the Royals have a diversified roster, but Witt Jr. clearly leads the way.

Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images

The Rockies, however, have no comparable player.

Last season, Nolan Jones was the Rockies’ best player (3.8 fWAR, 20 home runs, and 20 stolen bases), and this season, that honor has gone to Brenton Doyle (3.5 fWAR, 21 home runs, and 24 stolen bases). Neither approaches the numbers put up by Carroll and Witt Jr.

As a similar comparator, look back to the 2018 Rockies, which was led by Nolan Arenado (5.9 fWAR, 38 home runs, two stolen bases) and Trevor Story (4.7 fWAR, 37 home runs and 27 stolen bases). Arenado had a season comparable to those of Carroll and Witt Jr. No other Rockie has come close.

As illustrated by the Shohei Ohtani years, no single player can do it alone, and both Carroll and Witt Jr. are surrounded by skilled teammates. Currently, however, that player has not emerged for the Rockies should they plan to contend in 2025 or 2026.

A robust pitching staff

If the D-backs had a roster flaw in 2023, it was a lack of pitching depth. That said, Cy Young finalist Zac Gallen (5.1 fWAR in 210.0 IP) and Merrill Kelly (3.1 fWAR in 177.2 IP) were nails all season. When the playoffs came, 25-year-old Brandon Pfaadt (0.3 fWAR in 96.0 IP) found verve few saw coming.

Moreover, the Snakes built up a solid bullpen (2.1 fWAR). Still, it wasn’t enough — a point Hazen acknowledged — and a lack of pitching depth is probably the reason they lost the World Series. (Sorry, but if you’re bullpenning in October, something has gone wrong.)

To Hazen’s credit, he signed free agents and filled those gaps during the offseason, and only now (following a series of injuries) is the pitching staff beginning to hum. But the D-backs understood that starting pitching matters and worked to give themselves options.

As for the Royals, they, too made significant adjustments to their pitching.

In 2023, the starting rotation, was worth 7.4 fWAR, led by Cole Ragans (2.4 fWAR in 71.2 IP) and Brady Singer (2.0 fWAR in 159.2 IP). Ragans was not a Royal for the entire season — he was acquired from the Texas Rangers. But in Ragans, general manager J.J. Picollo found his ace.

Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images

In the offseason, he signed two veteran pitchers: Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha. They were savvy moves. In Lugo, he the Royals got an experienced pitcher with a deep arsenal; from Wacha, he got a veteran who had learned how to pitch as his raw power declined. Picollo had built of rotation of both stuff and skill.

As Kansas City Star reporter Jaylon Thompson told me when the Royals visited Coors Field, the rotation quickly created a “workshop” environment. Wacha asked to watch other pitchers’ bullpens, and soon, they found they were watching each other work, sharing notes, and debriefing after starts. It became a highly collaborative environment, one Ragans, Lugo, and Wacha told me made them better pitchers. It also encouraged Ragans and Singer to learn from their older peers.

And catching them was one of the great veterans of the game: Salvador Pérez.

To be fair, this season, the Royal’s staff has been blessed with good health, which makes all the difference.

Compare that, then, to the Rockies.

This year, the starting rotation has been worth 4.0 fWAR with Ryan Feltner (1.6 fWAR in 122.1 IP) leading the way. Obviously, this is an off year given that Kyle Freeland struggled early, Germán Márquez was unsuccessful in returning from Tommy John surgery, and Antonio Senzatela has yet to appear in an MLB game. Still, there’s not much evidence here of a core to build on next season, even with the Rockies’ decisions to keep Cal Quantrill and Austin Gomber.

(As a comparison, in 2018, the starting rotation earned 13.8 fWAR with Freeland and Márquez leading the way, each with 4.1 fWAR.)

A forward-looking front office

A key through line of both the D-backs and Royals are front offices willing to make future-oriented moves.

Back in 2019, Hazen traded top prospect Jazz Chisholm Jr. to the Miami Marlins for future ace Zac Gallen. Then in 2022, he sent their best player of 2022, Daulton Varsho (4.4 fWAR), to the Toronto Blue Jays for Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Gabriel Moreno. Both would be key in the D-backs’ World Series bid.

Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images

Similarly, Picollo was willing to make moves, trading Aroldis Chapman to the Texas Rangers for Ragans, extending Bobby Witt Jr., and signing significant free agents in the offseason.

So far, Rockies general manager Bill Schmidt has shown less willingness to plan ahead. Ryan McMahon was one of the most sought-after players at the trade deadline; instead, the Rockies opted to keep him. Similarly, in a market that saw pitchers moving, the Rockies kept Quantrill, Gomber, and Justin Lawrence.

Although they have signed Ezequiel Tovar to an extension, these are not the moves of a forward-looking front office.

The future

It may be that the next iteration of Rocktober comes into view in 2026.

By then, Charlie Condon will have shown whether he’s as good as everyone thinks he will be. Similarly, Chase Dollander, Gabriel Hughes, and Carson Palmquist should have made their MLB debuts.

And we’ll know if the young sluggers the Rockies are bringing up through their farm system represent the next generation of Blake Street Bombers.

But it’s difficult right now to make the case that the Rockies are following in the tradition of the D-backs or Royals, and there’s little evidence that the Rockies will be contending in 2026 or in the near term.

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This week on the internet

One of the great things about teams playing the New York Yankees is that visiting players often stop by the MLB Network studio. That’s what Brenton Doyle did last week.

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Will Kris Bryant’s future role diminish? Why play Jake Cave so much? | Denver Post ($)

In this mailbag, Patrick Saunders explores some of the questions surrounding the Rockies. Of the Kris Bryant conundrum, Saunders writes, “His huge contract is an albatross, no doubt about it.”

White Sox Promotion Puts First 9 Fans At Ballpark In Starting Lineup | The Onion

My question is whether this will affect Chris Flexen’s position in the starting rotation.

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