Tuesday Rockpile: Should the Colorado Rockies sign Kirby Yates?

Colorado Rockies news and links for Tuesday, December 3, 2024

Because it’s that very slow time in the offseason — unless you happen to be Juan Soto or a team hoping to sign Juan Soto — between the end of awards season and the start of the Winter Meetings next week, there’s little baseball news to discuss. (Seriously: Just rebrand the MLB Network the “Juan Soto Network,” and you’ll have a sense of how things are going.)

Because there’s so little news, MLB writers turn to speculation, which is the approach Mark Feinsand took last week in his article “One free agent who could make sense for every team.”

Here’s his suggestion for the Colorado Rockies:

Rockies: Kirby Yates, RHP — Colorado will be counting on some young, inexperienced arms in its bullpen next season, but adding a proven veteran figures to be in the cards. Yates had a stellar season closing for the Rangers, and while he may look for a role with a contender as he enters his age-38 season, a team like the Rockies might try to bring him in to stabilize the back of the bullpen.

MLB Trade Rumors projects Yates will sign a one-year, $14 million contract.

So, let’s follow through on Feinsand’s recommendation and consider Yates’ possible fit at Coors Field.

Consider us skeptical, but we’ll allow it. Who is this guy?

The native of Hawaii was drafted out of high school by the Boston Red Sox in the 26th round of the 2005 draft. Yates decided to attend college instead before missing the 2006-07 seasons due to having Tommy John surgery.

He went undrafted in 2009, so Yates signed with the Tampa Bay Rays and began working his way through their system. He was called up on June 7, 2014, and toggled between the Rays and their Triple-A team for the next two seasons. Following the 2015 season, he was DFA’d before being traded first to Cleveland and then the New York Yankees for cash considerations. His tenure in the Bronx was unremarkable.

Such was his career for the next few years. In 2016, he was claimed off waivers by the Los Angeles Angels, but his stay there was short. The San Diego Padres in 2017 claimed Yates off waivers, and that’s when he hit his stride, striking out 87 in 55 ²⁄₃ IP and posting a 3.72 ERA. In 2018, he assumed the closer role. In 2019, he was the Padres lone representative at the All-Star Game.

Yates signed a one-year, $5.5 million contract with the Toronto Blue Jays in 2020 before undergoing Tommy John surgery in March. In the fall of 2021, he signed a two-year, $8.25 contract with the Atlanta Braves.

Photo by Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images

And the 2024 season he spent with the Texas Rangers on a one-year, $4.5 million contract where was again elite and found himself selected for the All-Star Game. Yates pitched 61 ²⁄₃ innings in which he earned a 1.17 ERA with a 35.9% K%. He blew just one lead all season and finished with 33 saves. That said, he also posted a 12% BB%, which isn’t great.

And now, he’s back on the market.

TLDR: Yates has had a career that alternates between brilliance and injury. Also notable is that he will be 38 when the 2025 season begins.

Tell us about the pitch mix

The righty relies primarily on a 93 mph four-seamer (60.7%), a signature splitter (38.7%), and a slider (.6%). Earlier in his career, he had a knuckle curve and a changeup, but he abandoned both pitches in 2016. He’s also never been a big splitter guy and did not throw it between 2019-2022.

His super power is that hitters have trouble distinguishing between his fastball and his splitter.

Here’s what he told David Laurila back in August of his seemingly unremarkable four-seamer:

I think hitters have a hard time seeing the ball . . . . I think I hide it well. I think it comes out of a different slot than they’re used to. I’m also able to carry it well. Look, I know it’s 93 [mph], but it doesn’t seem like guys can catch up to it easily. It feels like it takes a few fastballs for them to get the timing down, which usually gives me the advantage because I can throw some other stuff in there to keep them off the heater.

He’s made 12 appearances at Coors Field over the course of his career in which he faced 47 batters. During that time, he gave up 10 hits, including two home runs, six walks, and 14 Ks. He has a cumulative ERA of 7.84.

That’s not terrific.

Is this happening?

Bill Schmidt has been clear that the Rockies intend to look for a seasoned closer during the offseason to mentor a young bullpen. On that front, Yates certainly fits the job description.

I asked Jon Becker of FanGraphs to game out the Rockies bullpen with this move, and here’s what he came up with:

Becker’s right: This is a fascinating combination.

However, it’s probably not happening.

First, he’s coming off a season that had him in the running for one of the finest closers in the American League, and it’s probably safe to assume that he’s going to get paid.

The Rockies, meanwhile, have entered austerity mode, eliminating around $30 million in salary since the end of the season. Given that there is little hope the Rockies will be competitive in 2025, spending in excess of $10 million on an elite closer seems unlikely.

Also, don’t forget that the Rockies have had their own recent experience with an elite closer who couldn’t get past injuries in Daniel Bard and a two-year, $19 million extension.

The Los Angeles Dodgers followed Mark Feinsand’s advice in signing Blake Snell, but it seems unlikely Kirby Yates will be spending any time with the Rockies.

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