Tuesday Rockpile: Using a new metric to evaluate Brenton Doyle’s offensive improvements

Colorado Rockies news and links for Tuesday, August 6, 2024

We’ve talked a lot this season about how improved Brenton Doyle’s offense is because the change is remarkable.

But that all seems a little old hat. I mean, he’s more than doubled is wRC+ and increased his SLG by more than 100 points. Moreover, he’s on track for a possible 30-30 season. What else is there to be said?

Well, here’s something.

I also write for Pitcher List where they’ve introduced a new metric, Process+. It’s not something I claim to understand fully, but I thought it might make for an interesting contrast between Brenton Doyle: 2023 and Brenton Doyle 2024.

To be clear, this kind of analysis is not my strongest suit, and it’s pretty clear that we’re still trying to figure out what Process+ does, but I decided you were the group I’d want to sort through this with. (I’ve also thrown in some Michael Toglia and Charlie Blackmon graphics to provide some contrast.)

Okay, I’m interested, but what is Process+?

Let’s start with Pitcher List’s Scott Chu:

Add this from Nick Pollock: “It’s wRC+ for skills instead of results.”

Process+, then, is designed to help fans gain a better understanding of a hitter’s performance and outlook by focusing on the following factors: Decision Value, Power, and Contact Ability.

Now to a few definitions. (There are other factors that can be measured, but let’s start with these three and a definition.)

• Decision Value (runs per pitch): The modeled value of a hitter’s decision to swing or take. These are also broken into ‘Zone’ and ‘Out-of-Zone’ components (credit to Robert Orr’s SEAGER article and @TJStats for the idea).
• Contact Ability (runs per swing): The modeled value of the hitter making contact (or not), above the contact expectation of each pitch.
• Power (runs per batted ball): The modeled value of each batted ball, above a pitch’s expectation.
• Process (runs per pitch): The combined value of a hitter’s Decision Value, Contact Ability, and Power.

As Nate Schwartz puts it in this detailed explainer, “With Process+, you can see all facets of a hitter conjoined into one—not a results-based stat, but an underlying one, showing how well one’s process is.”

Here’s a good starting point: model hitter Juan Soto, who currently has the highest Process+.

Pitcher List

You can see that he consistently makes excellent decisions and has exceptional power. Thus, his Process+ is outstanding, almost 60 points above league average. And very seldom does he make below-average contact because his decisions are so good — and that power, then, gives those decisions additional impact.

And he does not slump. He was down a bit in terms of contact in late May and early June, but the Decision Value and Power are well above league average.

That’s a lot. Can you provide some Rockies examples?

I can. Let’s start with two easy — and really different — ones in 2024: Michael Toglia and Charlie Blackmon.

First, consider Toglia, or “Diet Joey Gallo” as some of taken to calling him on the PR board. Here’s what Pitcher List’s Process+ shows:

Pitcher List

Since June 15, Toglia has been all about power — as in well above-average power, but not as good as Juan Soto’s. Plus, his decision scores aren’t nearly as high, and he makes more weak contact, something that Soto just does not do.

You can also see him warming up and becoming more comfortable at the plate: That slowly start in June, and then he had the more recent — and sustained — power surge. He’s not Juan-Soto-good (who is?), but his power numbers are well above league average.

In contrast, here’s Charlie Blackmon, who’s having a very different season:

Pitcher List

Blackmon makes lots of contact — which you know if you watch him play and hit all those foul balls. But he’s making worse decisions — as in below-league average — and the power is pretty much gone.

Oddly enough, Michael Toglia and Charlie Blackmon provide a fascinating contrast: The former is a young hitter learning how to use his power but making less contact; the latter is an aging hitter who makes lots of contact, but not much of it is meaningful. And it’s not just a slump. This has been Blackmon’s game since June.

None of this comes as a surprise, but it’s a way to reinforce what we’ve seen through the eye test and other data.

Interesting. What can you tell us about Doyle?

Let’s do it. Here he is in 2023:

Pitcher List

Yeah, that’s bad. Virtually everything, save his Decision metric, is blow league average. The contact is bad, and the power is even worse. Whereas 2024 Charlie Blackmon is all about contact, 2023 Brenton Doyle could not pull that off much at all. His contact metrics are horrible.

Now look at 2024 Brenton Doyle:

Pitcher List

You can see Doyle figuring out his new swing in May — back when he was hitting and getting on-base more, which had us all saying, “Hey, if he can hit around league average, that’ll be terrific!” But in July, he figures it out and heats up in earnest — that’s all those home runs. His decision numbers went down a bit, but who cares given the power that he’s tapped into?

His contact numbers are up — roughly at league average — and he’s generating useful contact (e.g., he’s hitting pitches that are more likely to result in hits).

Doyle has been a little more aggressive in 2024, but because he’s swinging at better pitches, he’s improved is decision values from 2023.

Also, this shows that while Doyle is a much improved player, he’s still not a slugger, but he’s become a solid all-around player. And given how long this trend has continued, it looks to be for real, not just a hot streak.

Closing thoughts

This is a pretty basic analysis, and I’m approaching this as a workshop because this is my first attempt with this metric. But I found it helpful as a way to visualize the kind of season a player is having.

As Pitcher List’s model becomes more sophisticated, you’ll be able to search for how a player forms against certain pitches or in different counts. But for this first time out, I wanted to stick with the basics. (Just so you know, this is paywalled though you can subscribe here.)

Let me know what I got wrong or missed.

Author’s note: I need to give big shoutouts to Kyle Bland, who helped me think through some of this, and Kevin O’Brien, who inspired this piece after I read an article he wrote on the Kansas City Royals.

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Accolades

Because it can never be said enough, Doyle Rules!

Read more here.

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The week on the internet

Leave it to Charlie Blackmon to point out one of life’s enduring challenges.

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Tovar turns corner: ‘He wants to be great’ | Rockies Beat Newsletter – MLB.com

Thomas Harding spoke with Ezequiel Tovar about changes he’s made in 2024 — and there’s some pretty excellent swing analysis video included that’s worth your time.

The ’24 Rox are not the ’16 Rox, and that’s a problem | Denver Post ($)

As Patrick Saunders writes, “The ’16 season is largely forgotten — understandably so. Under manager Walt Weiss, Colorado finished 75-87, third in the National League West, 16 games behind the Dodgers.” Yet that season hinted at what was to come in 2017-18 as the pieces for a playoff-contending team fell into place. There’s little of that hope for 2025, despite recent positive thoughts from general manager Bill Schmidt.

Even as Rockies’ offensive production grows, sky-high strikeouts persist: “It’s got to get better” | Denver Post ($)

I didn’t intend to include two articles from The Post, but both are worth your time, especially this one. Saunders talks with players, coaches, and analysts about what’s going on with the Rockies’ tendency to chase.

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