Tuesday Rockpile: What do the early Steamer projections suggest about the 2025 Colorado Rockies?

Colorado Rockies news and links for Tuesday, November 12, 2024

We are fast moving into 2025 MLB projections, and last week, FanGraph’s 2025 Steamer rankings dropped.

In case you need a refresher, MLB.com describes Steamer as follows:

Like other projection systems, Steamer uses past performance and aging trends to develop a future projection for players. It also uses pitch-tracking data to help forecast pitchers. On Fangraphs, the projections are updated daily and predict each player’s numbers over the course of the remainder of the season.

Obviously, no one is claiming that every one of Steamer’s predictions will come true, but it is widely regarded as one of the most accurate predictors in the industry.

So while none of this is destiny, Steamer’s projections provide some solid data to use when speculating on what things might look like for the Colorado Rockies given what we currently know about the roster and players.

It’s worth taking a moment to consider the initial projections.

What does Steamer project for the offense?

Not to get this analysis off to a discouraging start, but the Rockies have no players in the top 100. The highest ranking projections are as follows:

• 118 — Ezequiel Tovar (Projected slashline: .258/.295/.439; 24 HR; 12 SB; 88 wRC+.)
• 127 — Brenton Doyle (Projected slashline: .245/.299/.418; 23 HR; 27 SB; 85 wRC+.)
• 155 — Ryan McMahon (Projected slashline: .240/.322/.406; 22 HR; 8 SB; 91 wCR+.)

Brendan Rodgers is next on the list at 225.

If these numbers hold, they would mark an overall decline for the Rockies three best players in 2024.

The Rockies have said repeatedly that they are confident about the team they have. Granted, these are projections, but the initial data is less sunny than the Rockies’ vision.

How about the pitching?

In this case, at least the Rockies have two pitchers ranked in the top 100.

• 69 — Germán Márquez (Projected: 160.1 IP; 7.57 K/9; 4.76 ERA; 4.46 FIP.)
• 96 — Ryan Feltner (Projected: 177.1 IP; 7.83 K/9; 4.89 ERA; 4.54 FIP.)
• 147 — Antonio Senzatela (Projected: 134.1 IP; 5.79 K/9; 5.13 ERA; 4.78 FIP.)
• 149 — Kyle Freeland (Projected: 144.0 IP; 6.68 K/9; 5.14 ERA; 4.81 FIP.)

It’s difficult to make comparisons here given that Márquez and Senzatela are coming off Tommy John surgeries; however, Steamer’s optimism about Márquez’s return is encouraging. For Feltner and Freeland, these numbers are down a bit from 2024.

Closing thoughts

Check out the rankings for yourself, and see what you think. I’m more optimistic about Michael Toglia than Steamer is, but the overall picture here is not positive.

Add to that Mike Petriello’s “Ranking all 30 MLB rosters as they stand right now.” In his early survey, the Rockies finish last (30th) among all MLB teams. Petriello understands the Rockies as well as anyone does, so I take his evaluation seriously.

The Rockies may be bullish on 2025 — more on that in a moment.

Early forecasters, however, are not.

★ ★ ★

The front office’s letter to season ticket holders

Evan Lang wrote about this yesterday but I wanted to follow up and provide a contrast with Steamer’s projections. (Also, I wear bifocals and needed a copy with larger print.)

Last week, the Rockies sent out their yearly letter to season ticket holders, this time authored not by Dick Monfort but instead by manager Bud Black. The tone was, as you might expect, positive.

Here’s the text:

First and foremost, thank you for your unwavering support. Colorado sports fans are the best in the country, and it’s a privilege to manage your team for another season.

2024 was another challenging year, but we’re fully committed to putting a winning team on the field—you deserve it. Every one of us shares a relentless drive to build a team that embodies the spirit of Colorado and brings pride to our fans.

I’m more confident about 2025 than I’ve been since our back-to-back playoff seasons in 2017 and 2018. We are building a roster you can be proud of and I’m hopeful you’ll see our efforts pay off next season.

Our excitement begins with our talented young core: Gold Glove winners Ezequiel Tovar and Brenton Doyle. These two, along with players like Michael Toglia and Nolan Jones, have shown us just a glimpse of their potential, and I look forward to watching their growth in 2025.

I’m equally excited about our pitching heading into 2025, both in the rotation and the bullpen. We’re finally entering Spring Training with a fully healthy staff, and it’s not a stretch to say we are deeper at starting pitcher than we have been in the past few years. Top prospects like Chase Dollander, Carson Palmquist, and Sean Sullivan are one step closer to Coors Field. Our bullpen has some of the most talented young arms I’ve ever managed, and I’m eager to see what they can achieve.

Thank you again for your loyalty. I don’t take for granted the privilege of managing a team in Colorado, and our goal remains clear: to bring you a championship. We’re dedicated to making 2025 a season you won’t forget.

I can’t wait to see all of you at Coors Field for Rockies Fest on January 25 and throughout the 2025 season!

Sincerely,

Bud Black

I suspect in having Bud Black sign this letter, the Rockies front office hoped the manager’s words would receive a warmer reception than Dick Monfort’s would. That’s entirely possible. But it also serves as a reminder of how little things have changed for the Colorado Rockies, a fact reflected in the early projection forecasts.

★ ★ ★

This week on the internet

Here’s something cool I stumbled onto:

Check out Justin Lawrence on the Rockies’ profile.

★ ★ ★

Job Posting: Colorado Rockies – Lead Analyst, Data Science | FanGraphs

Want to work in analytics for the Rockies? Now’s your chance.

Rockies Claim sidearmer Jimmy Herget from Cubs | Blake Street Banter

On Friday, the Rockies added a potential reliever to their 2025 bullpen. Tyler Paddor provides some details on “The Human Glitch,” a nickname conferred by none other than Pitching Ninja.

Which catcher is best at scrunching himself into a tiny ball? | FanGraphs

Who says there are too many analytics in baseball? Davy Andrew’s has created a new one, using an “March Maddness” styled bracket, and Jacob Stallings has made his mark. (Elias Díaz, on the other hand, does not score so highly.)

Will MLB’s broadcast uncertainty impact franchise values? An early test case looms | The Athletic ($)

One of the stories I find most interesting is the implosion of the RSNs. Here, Evan Drellich considers what’s happening in Minnesota. Here’s the sentence from Drellich’s article that has stayed with me: “The MLBPA this year told its members that local TV revenues range from 12 to 32 percent of a team’s total revenue, and that the majority of teams sit around an average of 21 percent.”

★ ★ ★

Please keep in mind our Purple Row Community Guidelines when you’re commenting. Thanks!