Wednesday Rockpile: How will arbitration pan out of the Rockies?

Colorado Rockies news and links for Wednesday, October 23, 2024

Earlier this week we learned the fact that the Colorado Rockies will likely cut payroll a bit for the 2025 season. While that news isn’t surprising, the way the team will go about accomplishing that goal is always of interest to me as someone who loves the process of roster construction. After all, I have spent countless hours playing franchise modes in MLB The Show and Out of the Park Baseball along with years of playing Fantasy Baseball.

Much of the payroll cutting will occur in the first couple of weeks of the offseason with money coming off the books via free agency and deciding what to do with arbitration-eligible players. We already saw arbitration-eligible players like Jake Cave, Dakota Hudson and Peter Lambert get released by the team which saves them around $5.5 million in projected salaries, but there are still other decisions to make concerning arbitration.

Matt Swartz developed a salary projection model for MLB Trade Rumors that has been published for the past 14 years. While the model isn’t to be taken as gospel, their projections serve as a good baseline idea for what players could sign for.

Here is how the Rockies arbitration players line up:

• Cal Quantrill (5.132): $9MM
• Austin Gomber (5.111): $5.6MM
• Brendan Rodgers (5.075): $5.5MM
• Ryan Feltner (2.143): $2.6MM
• Sam Hilliard (4.023): $1.7MM
• Justin Lawrence (2.167): $1MM
• Lucas Gilbreath (3.148): $900K

Three of these eligible players are entering their final year of arbitration while others are entering their first or second years of the process. With differing salary raises and the chance to trim fat, the Rockies have some choices to make.

Trade candidates

Cal Quantrill, Austin Gomber and Brendan Rodgers will be free agents after the 2025 season. Each had varying degrees of success in stretches during 2024 and how the Rockies choose to move forward will be one of their pressing decisions of note. Gomber and Rodgers will surely have their names floated around but the Rockies may not be as inclined to move them since their production is rather middling but they won’t be making much money in the grand scheme of the 2025 payroll. Both could be a useful piece for a team and the Rockies should seriously consider moving them but it’s not the end of the world if they keep them. Quantrill, on the other hand, is a piece the Rockies are sure to be motivated to move.

After earning a little over $6.5 million in 2024, Quantrill seemed due for a big payday in his final year of arbitration, especially after his strong first two months. However, as June rolled around and through the rest of the season his performance on the mound steadily declined. He struggled with walks, some nagging injuries and didn’t finish the season on a high note. Quantrill has made it clear he wants to pitch for a contender, something the Rockies are not, meaning a longterm extension isn’t in the cards. However, there wasn’t much interest in him at the trade deadline and with the nearly $9 million he could be owed in arbitration, the Rockies may find it more difficult to move him via a trade like the Cleveland Guardians did last winter.

Locks to stay

Out of the players eligible for arbitration, Ryan Feltner seems to be the only sure lock to remain with the team in 2025 and for good reason. After some inconsistency in the first couple of months of the season, Feltner turned in an excellent first half where he posted a 3.00 ERA in 11 starts. He enters his first year of eligibility and a $2.6 million contract is a significant raise from the league minimum he made in 2024 and also comes as a bargain for the Rockies.

Feltner has always shown front the rotation stuff and he seems to have turned a new leaf in the latter half of 2024 towards fulfilling that goal. The ability to get strikeouts and limit walks defines the hard-throwing righty and he is sure to help herald in the new group of pitchers on the horizon like Chase Dollander, Gabriel Hughes, and Sean Sullivan.

The other main lock for the Rockies is Sam Hilliard whom the Rockies chose to keep over Cave. At nearly $2 million for his second year of arbitration, Hilliard can continue to contribute in a key fourth outfielder role he grew into last season. The ability to bring some thump off the bench and play solid defense at all three outfield positions is a useful trait and the fact that Hilliard is still a homegrown player for Colorado is helpful in the mentorship and development of other young outfielders.

On the bubble

Finally, we have the players that could be on the chopping block.

Starting with Lucas Gilbreath, the Rockies are likely to keep him after injuries have robbed him of the past two seasons. They likely haven’t given up on him yet and another lefty would be nice to have to pair with Luis Peralta. A $900,000 contract is team-friendly and if he can stay healthy and prove effective in 2025, it will be a massive bargain.

That brings us to Justin Lawrence. After a strong 2023 campaign, Lawrence took a massive step back in 2024 with a 6.49 ERA in 56 appearances. His high walk rate remained the same while his strikeout numbers took a dip to 16%. He gave up 11 H/9 and had a 1.777 WHIP while quickly losing his job as the closer at the start of the season. While he is projected to earn about $1 million, it’s feasible the Rockies could sign him for less than that.

Still, with their desire to stick with the youth in the bullpen and add a veteran or two to pair with Tyler Kinley, that doesn’t leave much room for Lawrence who is out of options. He may have survived the first round of cuts, but as the tender deadlines inch closer in a few weeks, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Lawrence become a casualty of the roster shuffle.

Decisions decisions

Arbitration should be a fairly straightforward for the Rockies this year. The questions lies in whether they will be able to work out any trades to move the higher value contracts of Quantrill, Gomber and Rodgers and then use those savings in other ways to help the team build towards a hopeful contender moving forward.

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Red Sox Could Acquire Projected $9 Million Rockies Hurler On Trade Block | Boston Red Sox On SI

Speaking of moving Quantrill, the Boston Red Sox could be a suitor to acquire the righty. The Red Sox had a decent 2024 campaign but are definitely in need of more pitching without breaking the bank. A change of scenery could be a boon for Quantrill and help out the Red Sox.

Affected by Altitude Episode 135: The Man of the People No More | Rocky Mountain Rooftop

In this week’s podcast, Evan Lang and I discussed the recent roster departures, arbitration players, and who we would want to protect in the Rule-5 draft.

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Arizona Fall League

Scottsdale Scorpions 8, Salt River Rafters 6

It was a tightly contested affair but the Salt River Rafters came up just short against the Scottsdale Scorpions in the ninth inning. The Rockies had Skyler Messinger in the lineup where he went 1-for-4 with a solo inside-the-park home run in the fifth inning, his first of the Arizona Fall League season. Michael Prosecky also saw some action, giving up two runs on three hits in one inning of work while Carlos Torres tossed a scoreless eighth inning.

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